| Show Alt LTAIINITI ON stlt tAkeTognie Projected school- - and college-agper employed worker in Utah Ed funding: Perfect storm population ass- - is converging SO 4 — 0 45 Continued from Al Q A slight increase before flattening out again These short- and long term trends the thinking Woo's should allow the state to) manage its education budget Pvrn in the face of a sharp enrollment ifl crease over the next five years Think again say economists A flat student perworker burden works Just fine w hen enrollment is static and opert tional costs are the primary coin cern says Pamela 141101 a se flint analyst at the University of Utah's Boreal) of Economic and Business Research Mit ith the coming student boom capital costs will rise because new schools and other educational facilities must be built In addition she adok federal programs such as the Bush ad ministrat ion's controversial "No Child lift Behind" requirements are putting a further strain on education budgets Finally changing demographics Utah's ongoing inthil( of b are creating born immigrants costly challenges for state educators Place those dynamics within an economy that has been hammered in recent years and is expowied to grow only moxiestly over the rest Of the decade and the result is a higher cost per e — 040' age Population age 517 18-2- per employed worker per employed worker 035 025 020 high paying jobs when the tech bubble burst in 2002 and they have not been replaced Per capita income in Utah in relation to US per capita income has gone down three straight years Were losing highwage jobs e and replacing them with jobs says Perlich 'And though we've had no real job growth the population continues to go up which also contributes to our per capita incomes going down" Mark Knold a senior economist with the Utah Department of Workforce Services paints a sunnier picture But he too frets about the state's ability to generate enough revenue to cover educaits tion costs "We have been losing jobs over the last couple of years but we haven't replaced jobs — jobs with they're both coming back" low-wag- Population 030 '7) Sim4 Frinury 12tX4 - 2000 vintere &imam 2005 fy' tiotn 2020 2015 2010 hn00ntg anti itanown because were had such a hosays mogenous ipulat lOn Patty NItirphy an economist with the state Of Tice of Education That is now changing The demand for things like ESL and students-atTisprograms are it 2025 17w A rapidly increasing 1)opulation grows 2030 stilt takt In low the everything When grows" Hut will the economy grow with it? U economist Perlich is skeptical Utah lost thousands of high-payin- other residents have been moving out A recent Census Bureau report analyzing the movement of young single and people from revealed that the state suffered a net migration loss of more than 2000 residents — a figure that has probably increased in the past three years because of the recession and its slow recovery That's not a huge number relatively speaking but it's still talent walking out the door In fact says Perlich were it influx not for the foreign-borUtah would be an state — with more residents leaving than arriving :In the end this whole debate is really about the labor mar- ket" Perlich says "which is why it's so important that we keep Hill Air Force Base and its 20000 jobs and attract better Jobs" — Knold says believes Eventually Utah will bounce back from the recession at a quicker pace than the rest of the nation But he doubts the state will return to its '90s heyday anytime soon -I can't say what's going to happen but I'm leaning toward la struggle" Knold says "When you look at how the economy ebbs and flows over long periods you'll see a decade of good growth followed by a decade of slow or moderate growth It's hard to put booms back to back It's like Warren Buffett says — the hangover has to match the Knold binge" This much is clear: Utah's demographic face is changing and serious have could that Implications At the same time foreign-borimmigrants have been moving Into the Beehive State — more than NUM over the past decade n college-educate- d 1995-200- 0 t--4 n nv 07 !: jbaird a sitribcom moommmmrkliml" OMINalmNIMMEE t "L n KS LIKE Y I USE AWEKal ''i LI C ULD R ETAIN It t i 1 ("Sign up for Free Checking and l'it give you that getaway free" "There are a lot of things going on7 says Perlich "and they're going in the wrong direction" Beginning this year Utah's school-agoqtrollment (those age 5 to) 17) will Jump from Just over 717000 to a little more than 51500 according to state pro jections fly 2010 that figure will be (00000 and nearly 700000 by 2015 That's almost 2000)0 new students in Just over a decade Through it all Utah's overall population growth will match the surge in students which Inoans the studontlier-vvorkeburden will remain relatively constant lint Alt h capital costs going up and the need for Engl isit as a second language (ESL) and other programs associated with the steady in migration of non English nnire speakers funding will need to) be dredged Pp 0 'i :2i c4 0 1 ( 1 I r TIt i 44 :7 UP 'A' t 0 have the lowest per pupil (xpoqtditure of any state init weve 1)14ri able to) get away with "1A'e Lawmaker: Feng shui a good code Al f 11 BY TANI! 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