Show gait £akf Sribtnw &j)e 13 Tuesday Morning— January 1987 Page 14 Section A Persian GulPs Prolonged War May Be Near Critical Stage It may not be the “final offensive” but if Iran’s latest assault against Iraq makes the sort of headway currently being reported the balance in this prolonged Persian Gulf war would shift — alarmingly Because Western journalists are prevented from doing coverage of this particular conflict information from the Persian Gulf war front is highly unreliable Each side claims to be prevailing but analysts believe the Iraqis are getting the worst of the fighting g Since this Middle East has dragged on for seven years with advances veering back and forth indecisively it’s difficult to know exactly when one side or the other may jbe gaining an advantage Probably however attrition is starting to tilt in Iran’s favor From the outset when Iraq foolishly attacked Iranian forces on land claimed in a dispute by both countries it was argued Iran could respond with superior manpower But also predicted Iraq has stalled most of the counter-offense- s with greater firepower That may not now be enough Reports from the battlefields indicating Iranian forces have reached the outskirts of Basra lead analysts to conclude that critical events loom Although Basra Iraq’s second largest city is only 12 miles west of the southern Iraq-Ira- n border and considerable distance from Iraq’s capital of Baghdad it controls crucial communication lines With Basra in its hands Iran could ne blood-lettin- turn south into Kuwait and from there to neighboring states down the Gulfs western shore Iran has held Kuwait responsible for siding with Iraq during the war Beyond that Iran’s militant Moslem Shiite autocrats have agitated against situations such as Iraq’s and Kuwait’s Bahrain’s and the United Arabian Emirates’ — that is Sunni Moslems ruling largely Shiite populations That Iraq’s nominally secular government led nonetheless by Sunni Moslem adherents would presume to declare war on an Iran so recently captured by Shiite mullahs became almost as great a provocation of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s government as was the territorial invasion A Shiite reunification instigated from Tehran then forced with Per- sian troops marching through Basra is not unthinkable It’s why Basra’s fall can’t be lightly considered If Iraq is now compelled to commit its reserves to the fight and if Iran can withstand that the Ayatollah’s “final offensive” might occur later this year with a substantially improved chance for ultimate victory But instead of restoring peace and order to the Persian Gulf such upsetting of the balance of power could plunge the region into even further chaos It’s why everyone concerned Arabs as much as insist efforts at finding a negotiated solution be given every encouragement and opportunity And why it’s essential those initiatives succeed non-Ara- No Arms Race Restraint If the United States plans to resume nuclear test detonations next month as has been reported then the Soviet Union surely will abandon its self-impos- testing moratorium ed shortly thereafter The Soviets announced last month that they would resume nuclear tests if the United States continues its test- The New York Times has reported that the United States plans its 'next test Feb 5 and will detonate six I devices during the following three months ing The Soviet moratorium has borne the imprint of a public relations cam6 paign since it was announced Aug 71985 the 40th anniversary of the atom-- c bombing of Hiroshima by the United States The Kremlin’s announcement that the USSR would resume Resting if US detonations continue was made on the 500th day of the 7 hioratorium Nevertheless it is discouraging to Contemplate the end of the Soviets’ Unilateral ban As long as it continued there remained a glimmer of hope 7 that the Reagan administration might I reverse itself and agree to at least a limited moratorium of its own leading Co a total ban by both sides some- ! J You’re in tough shape when you J worrying about your Jget start If the telephone is still ringing after you out of the bathtub it’s a wrong number You’re getting old if someone mentions 3Bikini and you think of the atom bomb where down the line Such a plan was discussed at the Iceland summit in October It appears however that this was not to be and both sides soon will e return to testing schedules The Reagan administration has steadfastly maintained that a test ban is not in the best interest of the United States that continued testing is necessary to maintain and enhance the nation’s nuclear deterrent It also has been widely reported that a nuclear explosion is one alternative being considered as a power source for the futuristic weapons the president hopes to develop as part of his Strategic Defense Initiative full-scal- However there are many within the scientific community who argue that continued testing is not necessary to maintain the weapons the United States now has and that almost nothing new will be learned from further tests In addition there remains considerable scientific skepticism that a workable SDI space shield can be developed at any time in the foreseeable future According to one theory the Soviets recognize that SDI is a pipe dream but they are terribly concerned about the offensive weapons technology that the United States may develop in the course of SDI research That is why they reject President Reagan’s claim that SDI is a purely defensive system from which they the Soviets have nothing to fear In the meantime the president and his advisors remain committed to the continuing arms race that a resumption of nuclear testing by the Soviets unquestionably represents ‘The question I put before the House is critical- - it concerns the propriety of admitting state employees to this eminently distinguished Reagan Should Not Fire Regan By Richard H Shriver Special to The Washington Post I spent the holidays defending Don Regan I didn’t plan to particularly since I was in New England but after listening to total strangers ask each other the compulsive “Did you enjoy Christmas?” and in the very next bluster “Don’t you agree Regan should go?” I grew testy: not with those who only know Regan through the media but with the of the arguments in surprising this instance While I will defend their right to take every advantage of the First Amendment columnists conservatives as well as liberals have called for Regan’s ouster without considering the impact on the country (which they do understand) and without con- Ricbard H Shriver was assistant secretary of the Treasury from 1982 to 1984 sidering the man’s impressive record while in public office (for God’s sake let’s not publicize that!) I worked for Don Regan while he was secretary of the Treasury His grasp of domestic and international economics may be the best of any Treasury secretary in modern times While the political process often frustrated him he did lead the way to the 1981 tax cut to deregulation of financial institutions (in 1982) to encouraging greater responsiveness to public needs and to a massive refunding of the International Monetary Fund to avert an international financial crisis in 1983 His role in early versions of tax reform legislation and his influence on the president in promoting tax reform and fiscal balance are also notable In sum as the chief economic spokesperson (my wording not his) for the administration he presided over the second largest recovery since World War II during which the country added 12 million people — more than the working population of all of Scandinavia — to its payrolls And let’s not forget the low inflation and low interest rates of the past few years Regan worked hard to achieve these goals and succeeded despite having almost every leading economist in the country bet against him Not too shabby New York Times Service “We were asked to look at information and the facts” said Dr Daniel D Federman of Harvard Medical school who headed a National Research Council panel on teenage pregnancy The facts the group found 'are appalling — fully justifying an aggres- sive birth control campaign for youngsters For example more than a million Ameteen-ageget pregnant each year About 400000 of them will have abortions and a substantial number will miscarry The 470000 who do give birth will probably drop out of school earn less than half of those who become mothers in their 20s and go on welfare Their children are apt to have physical and development problems and to themselves In 1985 give birth as teen-agethose young families cost the federal government 3166 billion in welfare Medicaid and food stamps And they pay the highest price in lost opportunities Most Americans would agree that those rican ’ ’ rs rs facts add up to a national tragedy But unlike other national tragedies — an epidemic say — this one doesn't evoke a common response Precocious sexuality and its consequences constitute too awkward a subject for dispassionate discourse The National Research Council panel therefore deserves praise for its refusal to be intimidated by controversy “Sexually acboth boys and girls” it artive teen-agegues “need the ability to avoid pregnancy and the motivation to do so” Condoms it suggests should be widely distributed where teen-ag- e boys congregate New methods for distributing the pill which it characterizes as the “safest and most effective” contraceptive should be explored As for the argument beard recently in New York City that easy access to birth control provokes early sexual activity the — and panel says there’s no evidence for it conendorses further trials of school-base- d clinics traceptive rs s eye-to-e- my Together as measured by results they may have been the best team imaginable for the nation’s economy over the past six years People who should know better are now calling for Regan’s dismissal with the lust and class of barbarians at a public hanging It’s not just unfair it could seriously damage the process of government What about the president’s other responsibility national security? Don Regan did appear to want to manage everything coming to the president after Robert McFarlane was replaced by John Poindexter as national security adviser It is the president however who determines the role and limits of his chief of staff Moreover Don Regan may not be all that comfortable with national security issues Within Treasury for example the various law enforcement agencies received support adequate but of Regan These agencies include the US Customs Service the US Secret Service the criminal division of the IRS and G Gordon Liddy’s alma mater the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms Based on his actions at Treasury it is hard to imagine Don Regan injecting himself into the clandestine matters of national security Moreover I dare say that even he is not all that conversant with and their Washington cocktail party fallout' His testimony to Congress on the subject of his noninvolvement in the affair is totally believable his integrity patriotism and ability economic matters have never been in question Furthermore there is no doubt that hereafter Regan will have a much greater appreciation of Congress (and its influence on the press) The fact is that with the quintessential politician Frank Carlucci coming in as na- throw-weigh- Iran-Cont- ts ra vis-a‘-v- is Special Features Syndicate The Soviets are giving every public sign that they want to get out of Afghanistan They have sent Foreign Minister Eduard A Shevardnadze and Anatoly F Dobrynin the Communist Party secretary in charge of foreign affairs to Kabul to talk to the Soviet puppets who head the Afghan government Their purpose according to military and diplomatic sources at NATO headquarters in Brussels is to devise a convincing camouflage for the reality of a Russian withdrawal from Afghanistan Why the camouflage? Elementary Watson Our brave Soviet soldiers have not retreated from any territory they have occupied since they pulled out of their sector of Austria in 1955 Certainly there is no lack of evidence that the Russians want to get out of Afghanistan — “The sooner the better” as one Soviet official put it to a Western source The Soviet Facts Say Teens Need Birth Control Campaign J vs for the son of a railroad conductor Now as chief of staff the turf is admittedly different Let’s say for want of an argument that the responsibilities of being president are twofold: one is the nation’s economy the other its security It is no coincidence that President Reagan who is the first person with a degree in economics ever to hold that office and Donald Regan see on matters involving the econo- While Congress is settling down to the kind of protracted futile debate about Iran and the Contras it finds so congenial a significant development is occurring in the Soviet Union which after all is more important to our present and future than a boxcar full of ayatollahs Another Viewpoint ' S" Donald Regan tional security adviser the basic problem in the White House organization is solved With only one exception that comes to mind our most effective national security advisers have all been civilians anyway and Carlucci has the very background and interests Regan lacks having served with distinction as deputy secretary of defense and deputy director of the CIA among other important posts If Regan resigns or is forced out the chaos resulting from such change will certainly bring this administration to an early end lt is inconceivable for example that a pew group could capitalize on the intriguing possibilities resulting from Reykjavik Time is too short to replace someone at that level— someone who had done nothing wrong and a lot of good Withdrawal May Leave Trouble for Afghans f -- body” Persuading youngsters to delay sexual activity would reduce adolescent pregnancy — but that’s wishful thinking America knows little about how to effect such a delay According to a new Planned Parenthood survey more than half the nation’s teen-agesay they’ve had intercourse by the age of 17 Yet only a third use birth control regularly The new survey also reinforces the pans must be moel’s observation that tivated to avoid pregnancy “The kids objectively who have the most to lose the most at stake” said Michael Kagay chief analyst “use birth control more” These the survey found include young people who have career aspirations get good grades and are involved in sports or extracurricular activities The girl who has a baby at 15 or 16 has set herself a hard path and her child a harder one Meanwhile America while battling over her plight refuses to face it The panel has and deserves the widest hearing rs army which entered Afghanistan in December 1979 has failed — despite a prodigious expenditure of munitions and money and serious but not severe losses — to eliminate the Afghan resistance According to NATO sources the sentiment for a withdrawal dominates thinking among the political members of the Politburo the body that runs the Soviet Union These sources believe however that Stavka the Soviet high command has advanced on alternative one not unfamiliar to Americans who remember the Vietnam situation Their alternative is for the army and the air force to make one more try in the spring to finish Afghan resistance once and for all This would mean extensive reinforcement of the 110000 Soviet soldiers and airmen now in Afghanistan and additional destruction of that country’s agriculture and communications The latter however has not been a highly ranked consideration in past Russian military operations The military argues that the Soviet Union cannot withdraw from Afghanistan as long as there are guerrillas in the field who in the last three months have been better armed especially against Soviet helicopters and tanks than they have been in the past To pull out now the military believes would only lead to continuation of the fighting which the Afghan army weakened by defections would be unable to defeat In other words Russia will be back to where it was in 1979 with a weakened regime open to Western influences on one of its frontiers teen-ager- The Soviets despite requests to the guerrillas to accept a cease-fir- e order want to “play it long” as a NATO source said and pull their troops out over two years Pakistan a bordering country which is deeply involved suggests six months The seven main guerrilla groups have declared that they will not negotiate with Najib the head of the Afghan government They call him correctly a Soviet puppet The seven guerrilla groups are prepared to negotiate directly with Moscow or the two representatives of the Kremlin now in Ka Soviet-imp- osed S 4 bul Little should be expected from such negotiations To begin with the guerrillas who differ on political and religious grounds are Unlikely to accept Najib as the head of government Should their present leaders do so they are likely to be deposed by other more combative chiefs An Afghanistan under Najib and without the Soviets would be the familiar country of insurrections raids and unrest that has been familiar to the West since the last century One certain element in the situation is the determination of Soviet leader Mikhail S Gorbachev and his closest advisers to get out Another fixed factor is that with at least 2 Vi million Afghan refugees on its territory Pakistan also wants them out and a kind of peace restored Quite apart from their military difficulties the Russians have other reasons for retirement The operations in Afghanistan a Moslem state have done serious harm to their diplomatic position in the Arab countries of the Middle East and according to intelligence sources have raised problems in the large and growing Moslem population of the USSR Yet the question raised by the Soviet military remains Will withdrawal ensure peace or will Najib’s government be involved in a continuing guerrilla war against men who demand that their government be controlled by true Afghans and not by puppets? And in the event that some sort of agreement is reached who will clean up the mess that Afghanistan has become outside the pities that the Russians occupy and hold With difficulty? Agriculture has been ruined in large areas The irrigation system is a shambles By Western standards it wasn’t much of a culture But as an Afghan leader said last year “It was ours” ' Nothing Serious® You’re getting old when your cold feet be caused by cowardice are less likely to than circulation If the real A estate salesman raves about the dry basement be sure to inspect the roof A charitable kid is one who excuse's his separents’ shortcomings on the grounds of s- nility i An optimist is a person who finds the bright side of things with his own flashlight ‘7 ri |