| OCR Text |
Show 7- - xT SIk gait akc Qrt'ibunr Thursday Morning, March 8, 1979 I It President Carter Takes Risks For Mideasl Peace Treaty Jimmy Carter verges on the most spectacular diplomatic success of his first term presidency. He may actual- nail down the elusive peace accord. If he hasn't, that is, miscalculated. Todays presidential flight to the Middle East carries with it as much optimism as the long belligerency in that part of the world has ever generated. Its widely supposed, even among the most confirmed skeptics, that Mr. Caller would not make this personal excursion unless he was convinced the two sides are ready to finally sign a meaningful agreement. Most available information supports this view. Israeli-Kgyptia- ly n the Israeli cabinet accepted compromise wording in a peace treaty, worked out by Mr. Carter and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin during his special visit in Washington, D.C., last With startling suddenness, weekend. One key obstacle evidently overcome is a target date for elections Palestinian on the West Bank and in Gaza. The idea now is to set a time when discussions on the matter should plan. produce a covers mutual Another self-governi- self-governi- military assistance pacts Egypt might sign with other Arab nations. The point is, Israel is apparently satisfied on revised language chosen by Mr. Carter and Mr. Begin. Now its Egyptian President Anwar Sadats stand, its assumed he is amenable since Mr. Carter and other U.S. foreign affairs officials have been in constant contact with the Egyptian president. White House spokesmen dont minimize the risks. They counter soaring optimism by warning Mr. Carter, in fact. does not have ironclad commitments. Rather, they explain, the U.S. president believes now is the most likely moment if Israel and Egypt are ever going to try formal peace agreements, and, therefore, exposing presidential prestige to failure is worth the gamble. Looming over the entire process is the nagging reminder that Middle East peace endeavors have come close before, only to falter and collapse. The now blasted euphoria of last Septembers Camp David summitry is an acrid presence mingled with the bright prospects of Mr. Carter's urgent, confident journey. Since the Camp David sessions, other events have sent seismic shocks through the Middle East. Emergence of a revolutionary Islamic government in Iran, warfare between North and South Yemen increase tension and further threaten stability in that region of the strategic, resource-ric- h five-month-o- ld globe. A peace treaty between Egypt and Israel becomes even more imperative. It deserves President Carters turn. direct, personal involvement, as well Although no one is predicting as every wish, hope and prayer that definitely where Mr. Sadat may he succeeds. the United States was first long in Vietnam. But there is a catch. beginning to tire of its commitment to Saying a war was won and actualdefend South Vietnam a sage senator ly winning it are not one and the from Vermont offered a suggestion same. The rest of the world may for getting out that few took seriously. think the Chinese accomplished their But the Vielimited objective. Sen. George D. Aiken, know whether tnamese they were United States the proposed that Chinese as do the or defeated not, won had the it that simply announce themselves. Years forces. its war and withdraw Realities, not claims, are what later Chinese invaders of Vietnam seem to be following the former count. Truth, like murder, will out. Eventually the world will learn if senators advice. China is in fact a lubberly giant As reliable news reports from the unable to use its overpowering nuit merical advantages to cow even a front have been almost is impossible for outsiders to know y and but loosely united whether the Chinese accomplished small neighbor. their stated objective of teaching the Or was the myth of Vietnamese Vietnamese a lesson. It is equally exploded and impossible to determine whether fighting superiority on that strugvisited Vietnamese victory claims are jus- such pressure Chinese limited gling nation by the tified. a no is it incursion that longer major For that matter it is not even threat in Southeast Asia? certain the Chinese are withdrawing A Chinese victory wouldnt have to announcement this their despite much effect on expanding relations effect. with the United States. But defeat at Under such misty circumstances the hands of the Vietnamese should the Aiken exit is a natural, espe- be a warning to this country that its cially since it was preceded by the rush to buddy up with Peking reChinese commitment not to remain quires When R-V- t., nt war-wear- Voyagers Triumph United States space exploration has scored another brilliant triumph. The work of robot prober Voyager is fulfilling expectations and more. With its sister ship. Voyager 2, the National Aeronautics and Space A1 dministrations Voyager I close look at planet Jupiter has performed at near perfection. Earthly understanding of the solar system gains immense expansion once more. This nation's capacity to transmit and record exact knowledge about existence beyond Earth's own atmosphere has become the space programs most exalting achievement. Long-heltheories and speculation are being confirmed or replaced by d up-clos- e, photo-verifie- d actualities. n For instance, the wide Red Great 13,000 mile Spot on as suspected, represent Jupiter does, well-know- an extraordinary movement of hurricane-lik- e violently rotating clouds, with a strangely quiet" center. On the other hand. Io. one of Jupiters 13 moons, is not the cratered satellite some supposed, but a configuration of plains, mounds and fault Lines, evidently composed mostly of MuM Bu salt. The first photos of Amalthea, Jupiters closest moon, show it somewhat cratered, as Earths moon, but surprisingly elongated, roughly twice as long (180 miles) as it is wide, the extended axis aimed at Jupiter, 100,000 miles away. As valuable as the discoveries about Jupiter was the satisfaction that NASA technicians had designed a craft able to safely transit the planets extremely powerful electromagnetic force fields, which are thousands of times more intense than those surrounding Earth. Voyager sped through such danger with only slight damage done to its several receiving and transmitting instruments. Often theres a regrettable tendency to take these NASA achievements for granted. In fact, an attempt as technically complex as the Voyager and 2 flights is never guaranteed. That it succeeds so precisely is an extra tribute to the planners, innovative specialists, skilled assemblers and persuasive visionaries, paM as well as present, who hasten the day of fully acknowledged truth about man and his relation to the universe. common 1 1 ( H i I ) Tempting Why Soviets By Ernest Couinc The Los Angeles Times Ever since Chinese troop-- invaded Vietnam, nervous analysts in Washington and foreign offices all over the world have been debating the question of questions What will the Soviet Union do? To phrase the issue more bluntly, will the fighting lietween China and Russia's Southeast Asian ally trigger a Sov iet Chinese war So far the Russian response has been restrained. Additional arms have been airhlled to Vietnam The Soviet naval presence in the South China Sea has been beefed up. Moscow has pointedly warned the Chinese to "stop before it is too late. However, Soviet officials have told foreign diplomats that the Kremlin does not plan to intervene directly in the war if the scale ot hostilities remains limited. Obviously, though, the Russians could change their minds if Vietnam appears in danger ol suffering a humiliating deleat or if the Chinese, contrary to present indications, tail to withdraw. Must Be Tempting For a long list of reasons, the Sov iet leaders must in fact be very tempted to seize on the excuse offered by the invasion of Vietnam to box China's ears. As they look out at the world beyond the Russians see a very mixed picture. On the one hand, the events in Iran have come as an enormous windfall. American influence in that strategically v ital country has been all but wiped out perhaps permanently. Coming against a background of Soviet successes in .Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Angola, the developments in Iran have forced a lot of nervous Arabs and Africans to wonder if the Sov iet Union is not the wave ol the future, after then-border- Sweating Out a Decision non-existe- Thu Domin') Tlintn all. On the other hand. Moscow continues to have trouble in its own backyard. Within the past few weeks Yugoslavia and Romania have again thumbed their noses at the Kremlin by invasion ol criticizing the Cambodia by Vietnam. Massiv e Transfusion Most alarming of all, China has made the momentous decision to overcome its backwardness through a massive transfusion equipment, capital and technology from the United States, Japan and Western Europe. The Chinese are also seeking to modernize their antiquated armed forces through purchases of sophisticated military hardware from Western Europe. The Soviet Union enjoys enormous military in conventional superiority over the Chinese and will continue to as well as nuclear arms do so for a long time to come. Obviously, though, this is a case where time threatens to work against Moscow. For the Russians, whose fear of the Chinese is deeply-rootein national history and psychology, the spectcr of an increasingly powerful China on borders is frightening. Teach Viets a Lesson an Enter the Chinese invasion of Vietnam action calculated by Peking to "teach the Vietnamese a lesson" for their conquest of Cambodia, and to demonstrate to other Asians that entering alliances with the Soviet Union against China's wishes is a risky, counterproductive business. If the Chinese succeed in humiliating the Vietnamese, despite the latter's defensive "treaty of friendship and cooperation" w it h the Soviet Union, the Russians will suffer a serimi-los- s of face not just in Southeast Asia but also in Eastern Eurojx1 and other places lar removed from Vietnam The American concern, reflected m the Carter administrations public criticism ol China's "transgression," is that the Soviet Union will feel impelled to do whatevei to prevent that from happening China has indicated that it is ready to declare itself tile victor and pull out of Vietnam w ithoul forcing Moscows hand If that doesn't happen, however, the Russians could find the idea ot a military attack on China very attractive Invade Manchuria could take the form ot attack Such an one-shbombing raids on Chinese cities or military installations, a punitive but most:., symbolic thrust into thinly populated Xinjiang most ambitious hut least or (Sinkiangl an outright invasion of heavily likely of all industrialized Manchuria. By giving the Chinese a good cuffing, the Soviets could expect to achieve several goals. For starters, they would turn the tables mi Peking by dramatizing that if anybody m Asia is a toothless tiger, it is not Russia Such a move would also underscore the lesson of Czechoslovakia for Romania am! that, if they go too far wilh their Yugoslavia assertions of independence, they may have to suffer unpleasant consequences Most important ol all, even a limited Soviet Soviet-supporte- d t Havent Hit China military blow against China would throw a fricht into Americans, Japanese and Euroall of whom would have to ask peans themselves whether their developing relationships with China pose unacceptable dangers. Scare Americans There isn't one chance in a thousand that the United States would allow itself to be dragged conflict. Blit there would be into a understandable concern among Americans on this score concern laced w ith irritation at the Chinese for having precipitated the situation by invading Vietnam. There would be enormous public pressure in this country to back away from anything iet alliance w ith China. smacking of an anli-SoAnd the Europeans would almost certainly rethink the wisdom of selling even defensive weapons to the Chinese What. then, is holding the Russians hack Maybe they are not all that sure of Western reaction. Maybe tliey have a nagging fear that the Chinese, who have only a minuscule nuclear striking iorce. might nonetheless enough to lob a few nukes toward Novosibirsk, Sverdlovsk or even Moscow. Maybe, as Leonid I Brezhnev's comments last week suggest, the early conclusion of a new SALT agreement has first priority and tlu-don't want to do anything to make it conic uurav clod Smo-Suvi- v li Not Necessary Or. maybe the situation in Vietnam simply has not reached the point where the Soviet leaders feel that a decision is necessary. Whatever the ease, the majority view among s seems to be that direct Soviet military action is unlikely Lets hope that they are right, since a conflict would create problems ol nightmarish proportions tor the United States and its allies It's worth remembering, though, that almost nobody believed that the Russians would invade Czechoslovakia m loos, either Russia-wateher- Sino-Sovi- iCopynght i Krail Which Way Will the Talks Go? Field Newspaper Syndicate Alive but not well is the current state ol the negotiations to fulfill tile Camp David accords for peace between Israel and Egypt. On the Israeli side. Begin, by inflating an essentially legalistic issue, has cleared an internal political hurdle. But on the Egyptian side President Sadat still faces the far higher hurdle posed by hostility in the Arab world. President Carters decision to visit Cairo this week represents an etfort to help him dear that oil- - Mr. Kraft stack-- . To a large extent external developments caused the deterioration of the Camp David accords, signed so exultantly by President Carter and Messrs. Begin and Sadat last September. Most important, there was the downfall of the shah of Iran. Iran has now become a source of money, arms and moral support for the most intransigent opponent of the Camp David accords, the Palestine Liberation Organization. The revival of the PLO. moreover, is only the final act of a tilt that swept the whole Arab world as the shah slipped slow ly from power. As the shah's downfall began. Iraq, which had formerly been on guard against Iran. reentered the world of Arab politics. The Iraqis stopped accusing all other states of being solt on Israel and moved toward an aicommoda-tuwith their neighlior, Syria Pule of Attraction The Synan-Iraq- i rapprochement proved a pole of attraction for two monarchical regimes wary of Camp David to begin with and fearful Jordan of what was happening to the shah and Saudi Arabia. At the Baghdad summit m November, all of those countries and the rest of the Arab world joined in a minus Egypt strong condemnation of the Camp David accords. Baghdad had a direct impact on President Sadat's stance. In continuing negotiations to fill out the details of Camp David, he fell obliged to show that he was not selling out the cause of the Palestinians. To that end his emissaries sought new assurances on three issues previously left vague. First they wanted relief from a clause in Article 6 of the proposed peace treaty which gave the treaty with Israel primacy over all of Egypts other treaties, including those with the Arab states. Secondly, they wanted some assurance that fulfillment of the bilateral accord with Israel would be accompanied by Israeli action to give autonomy to the Palestinian Arabs living on two hits of land currently occupied by Israel the West Bank, w hieh had been taken Irom Jordan in the HM!7 w ar. and the Ciaa Strip, which had been taken from Egypt at the same time Policy of Yanks American ollicials. afraid to upset the applecart, got the Egyptians to agree that the treaty language lie kept intact. But they agreed to Egyptian insistence that there lx- sale memoranda interpreting the treaty. The side memoranda stipulated that Egypt was not abandoning previous treaties with the- Arab world, ami asserted that there should be linkage between eurc with Israel and autonomy fm the Palestinians. Tin- American posit ion caused grav e political problems for Begin, especially among his hardline followers in the- majority. They said events in Iran proved that Sadat could easily Inswept from power in Egypt Therefore they opposed any steps which eased Egypt's obligation under the treaty with Israel. In these conditions Begin singled out as tin "heart and soul" of tile matter the clause in Article asserting the primacy ol Egypt's treaty with Israel. By holding fast, by threatening a breakdown in the whole procedure-. he was apparently able- to win of the American interpretation in memorandum covering that article the softer version to the Israeli cabinet and won their acceptance That put tlie hall m t h- Egyptian court Apparently the Israelis have agreed to target dales for steps toward autonomy lor the Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, the- area which Egypt once administered So Sadat may he in position to say that under the present arrangements he gets far more for the Palestinians tiian anybody else ever did. Cover for Decisions Still he needs all tile help he can get to make tinagreement palatable to Arab opinion Carter's visit may provide Unit help and create the drama and excitement Sadat always likes .is a env er for decisions In tlu-sconditions a quick breakthrough m lar flam certain, hut one hopeful factor Cartel. Begin ami Sadat are all to save Camp David, it making trong onlv because its .scuttling would he political tor all of them - - - (1 - t "You were supposed to be planting the olive branch!" Orbiting Paragraph Springtime gets such a great biLlmg only because w inter is such an easy act to follow. The things we'd rather forget, we cant The trick is to pretend they're of no importance and they'll Siam go away Washington makes us use unleaded gas and a shortage of the stuff. Tliey can now lead us to the pumps, hut they can't help us tin-re'- drink le mi n -l -- ay s l lie most dost ru live -- caused bv Father Nature Marriage is .still an institution, bill some the lenees are coming down - er ol (Copy right |
