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Show Utah economy best in three pars According to a quarterly report from Key Bank of Utah, Utah economic econ-omic performance during 1988 was easily the best of the past three years. The near-zero growth of the Utah economy during 1986-87 gave way to 1988's strong increase in employment growth, declining unemployment, growth in taxable sales, and growing state and local tax revenues. The past twelve months have seen the creation of 21,800 net new obs, a 3.3 percent growth rate that is more than twice the job creation rate of the previous twelve months. The current Utah unemployment rate of 4.8 percent is only slightly above the lowest unemployment rate (4.7 percent, September, Oc-' Rapid world-wide expansion of antra an-tra vel and concerns about aging aircraft air-craft fleets suggest that tremendous growth will occur in this industry over the next twenty years. A coalition coali-tion of public and private sector representatives has correctly identified iden-tified significant opportunities to attract at-tract additional aerospace employers em-ployers to the state. Utah is likely to experience strong growth in this area over the next few years. Utah advocates will promote the state's typical menu: a growing, well-educated labor force; a strong work ethic; moderate land, labor, and utility costs; and a good transportation trans-portation system. However, future Utah successes in this area will also be the result of significant de- cenrduring the same timeframe. Tour business has expanded rapidly and will get an additional boost when the National Tour Association As-sociation holds its annual convention conven-tion in Salt Lake City later this year. A new relationship with a major Japanese airline to bring Japanese skiers to Utah ski resorts on a weekly wee-kly basis also holds the potential of major expansion in the future. Utah's birthrate has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded, although it is still 13.3 percent above the national rate. Utah's 1987 birthrate of 21 per 1,000 population compares com-pares to a level of 29 per 1,000 population po-pulation in 1979, a 28 percent reduction. re-duction. The reasons for the Utah birthrate decline are typical of those age population and funding requirements re-quirements early in the next decade. Utah's economic outlook is promising. Our basic industries should continue to perform well. The diversity of employment sectors sec-tors we have leaves Utah less vulnerable vul-nerable to sharp economic fluctuations fluc-tuations than is true in many states. - The year 1989 should see a slowing slow-ing of the national economy that will lead to a modest slowing in Utah job creation. However, expected expec-ted 1989 employment growth of 16,000-18,000 jobs will still be an improvement over the average and is poised for respectable growth in the future. ; f around the nation. More and more working women are delaying child-bearing, child-bearing, deciding not to have children, chil-dren, or having fewer children. One major impact of this development is that a declining birthrate will put less pressure upon the Utah school- i velopments for these prospective employers. Many aerospace companies com-panies have no viable ability to expand operations in, for example, southern California because of high costs, overcrowded transportation systems, and a shortage of qualified workers. These employers are looking look-ing for less expensive, more productive produc-tive alternatives, and Utah qualifies. . Efforts of recent years to expand Utah convention and tour activities have been quite successful. Salt Lake City has experienced strong growth in this area, and has the potential po-tential jo become a more prominent convention city. As partial evidence of this success. Salt Lake County saw a 22 percent 'increase in hotel and motel room sales during the first nine months of 1988. Downtown Down-town hotel occupancy ,, rates increased in-creased from 70 percent to 80 per- tober 1988) seen during this decade, and compares to a 5.9 percent rate of a year ago. What is significant is that the unemployment rate has con-s con-s tinued to decline despite an increas-" increas-" ' ing labor force. Over the past twelve months, the - a seivice sector has created more than 1 1,200 net new jobs; an annual growth rate of a strong 7.3 percent. Nearly half of these new service jobs (4,600 jobs, 10.9 percent) were in the area of business services. ser-vices. As of year-end 1988, the service ser-vice sector now represents" the largest single employment sector in Utah. From World War n to the mid-seventies, the government em- . ployment sector was Utah's largest single employer. From 1977 through 1987, the trade sector was -Utah's largest employment sector (Utah Department of Employment Security). The Utah service sector will continue to be the main thrust of job creation during the next few i years. Much of Utah's future economic potential is tied to promoting stronger growth in two key areas-manufacturing areas-manufacturing and tourismtravel. One of the critical sectors for addi- j tional manufacturing expansion involves in-volves the aerospace, industry. t |