Show Sees Prosperity Here When War Is Ended I By DR ARTHUR BROWN SELWYN-BROWN Noted American Financial Authority By ide the Tal Sped X NEW TEW YORK Dec 23 The The German emperors emperor's peace proposals bring t the e end of ot the war var appreciably closer Whether they are accepted or not they mark a critical stage in the wars war's progress and will result in speeding up the activities for the final decision whether this be gained by arbitration peace conferences or force torce of ot arms It is is therefore important for us to anticipate the effects of peace upon the wonderful prosperity we are enjoying enjoying enjoying en en- and learn whether we will have any lean years or whether we will continue to enjoy financial and commercial commercial com corn mercial activities Appearances Undoubtedly undoubtedly undoubtedly un un- point to continued pros pros- We have benefited b by the war in inI inmany inmany many ways All our ac accumulated I stocks of ot raw materials and aud manufactured manufactured manufactured goods have been sold abroad I at high prices for gold We have greatly strengthened our financial re re- re- re I sources Instead of ot being a borrowing borrowing borrow borrow- ing nation with an adverse balance of trade we have become a leading country country country coun coun- try with the trade balance strongly In our favor The war has enabled us largely to increase our gold and bullion holdings The secretary of ot the tr treasury re- re that the stock of gold in the United States exceeds These figures are not approached by any other country countr Our banking returns show similar beneficial chan changes es No other country in the world shows banking transactions transactions transactions those shown each month by our bankers Our banking resources have lately been considerably considerably considerably consider consider- ably strengthened and made more flexible by the activities of the federal federal fed ted eral reserve banks and by the development development de de- I of ot the foreign branch banks Some of ot our largest banks have opened branches in the principal principal pal commercial centers throughout the I world to promote the development of our commerce So the end endot of ot the war will find us solvent and andIn andin andin in better financial and commercial condition than at any previous time in our history TRADE EXPANSION This gears gear's cars car's foreign trade statistics I show a wonderful expansion Our total foreign n commerce is valued at I as compared with 5 in 1915 and only in 1914 We are not only shin shin- ping immense quantities of foodstuffs and munitions abroad but are also increasing our com commerce all over the world We are arc selling our m manufactures manu manufactures manu manu- nu in remote parts that before II the war seldom even heard of Amer Amer- ica lea Hence our prosperity is due to the genuine demands of ot business and not to speculation Now the war Is the most Costly and destructive ever waged It is estimated estimated estimated es es- es- es that over towns and villages villages vil vii lages have been des dez eyed dyed within the I areas occupied by the Teutonic armies Many of these will have to be rebuilt re reo re- re built The nations of ot central Europe I have lve not only used up their metal and textile supplies but have consumed the bulk of ot their metals and cloth goods In use at the opening of ot the war Much of ot this loss will have to be replaced later The world in is without any accumulated hated stocks of goods The demands made upon merchants exceed their visible supplies Should peace be declared declared de de- de- de dared next month manufacturers would be rushed with orders for tor immense im urn- mense quantities of goods Every country as we e have o shown will need metal supplies It will probably take five lve years to meet the demands for tor copper lead zinc Iron and steel needed to replace the metals destroyed during the war is a great reat shortage of shipping tonnage that will require several years ears to remedy and aud tho the metal demands for or shipbuilding railroad construction and machinery replacement will keep American mines smelters and en engineering works busy for a number of ot years INCREASE CREDIT Changed sociological and political conditions caused by the war will wUl Increase increase increase in In- crease the credit and financial and commercial activities of ot some of ot the bel belligerents And these will wUl be effectively effectively effectively ef ef- felt in international trade Russia for tor example will become n ft now new country after atter the war It H will wUl have representative government and will under undergo o rapid mer mercantile level level- Our bankers and aUd merchants will play an Important part parr not only in the coming development of or Russia but of ot China and anit the Balkan countries also They will become world orld bankers bankers bank bank- ers era as a result of or the war It H win will m be impossible to Pass Dass pass from war rio peace conditions without some l business disturbances These however however however how how- ever will be neither seri serious us nor prolonged prolonged pro pro- longed in the United States General business will continue active as as' as asat at present Several hundred thousand men rind and women employed in munitions munitions muni muni- factories will It is true have muni-I muni to seek seele other employment But many of the munitions works will be promptly converted Into engineering and manufacturing manufacturing manu works for tor as we have I 1 shown there will be a greatly increased increased in in- creased demand for Cor the output of ot such factories While these readjustments are being being be be- ing made there will be a a. decline In I commodity prices and wages The high cost of ot living hiving will come down Foreign buying will then cause a gradual increase in business that will probably culminate in a great trade and investment boom near the end of ot the Ule second year after the signing I of ot peace terms The war will leave us a very solvent nation well equipped to to do an enormous enormous enormous enor enor- manufacturing business None of the European nations will be able to compete with viUl us IS We will experience experience experience ence no lean years I The only danger to be e experienced is s an outbreak of speculative ties Immoderate speculation might weaken confidence and retard business business bustness busi bust ness expansion Otherwise a declaration declaration declaration declara declara- tion of ot peace within the next few months will benefit us and cause an immense demand for American manI manufactures manufactures man man- and raw materials This demand demand demand de de- de- de deI I mand will be world wide and will be bo I continuous until the destruction caused by the war is made good foreign for tor I eign mercantile establishments are restocked and International commercial commercial commercial commer commer- II cial readjustments are completed These operations will take several years to complete years complete years of assured I prosperity for America I |