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Show News fib, Behini By PaUlMaLLONJ Releaaed by Western Newspaper Union. ADDED EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL SWING WASHINGTON. Most . Interesting and perhaps most significant change in the last election did not show itself it-self until the detailed final returns came in. Now a month has passed and an intelligent analysis is possible: pos-sible: The Democrats not. only failed to get their usual strong labor major-I major-I lties, but their city Negro majorities as well. Symptoms of a changeover in the country at large were clearly suggested sug-gested in the scattered sample voting vot-ing of these two class groups to which the national administration has appealed ap-pealed so conspicuously with special leadership. In Harlem, the Republicans actually actu-ally won a plurality in the 21st assembly as-sembly district (all Negro), In lower low-er west Harlem (19th district), which is also Negro, the Democratic Democrat-ic poll was only 700 votes more than the Republican, out of 8.500 cast. Some attribute this almost even split in Harlem to the fact that a Negro candidate was running to be a city court justice (he won). nilLADELPIIIA RACE But the same symptoms were evident evi-dent also in Philadelphia whe?e there is no counterpart of the Tammany Tam-many Democratic machine which has run Harlem. There, the Republicans Repub-licans won the Negro 30th ward by 1,500 (during the New Deal, it has been Democratic by 1,500), the seventh sev-enth ward by 2,500 (usually Democratic Demo-cratic by 3,000), also the 44th, 20th. 22nd, and 47lh wards and this was against Bill Bullitt, the President's friend, for whom Mrs. Roosevelt appeared ap-peared on the platforrn. This changeover in the Negro vote was suggested in advance by some Negro educators and leaders and some Negro newspapers taking the position, at a religious convention and otherwise, that further support of the administration was not warranted. war-ranted. , Labor leaders, on the other hand, just could not hold their people Democratic, Dem-ocratic, with CIO support, the AFL official, who, ran for governor unsuccessfully un-successfully in New Jersey, was able to pull the full labor vote only in Camden county (shipyards, CIO). UNION STRONGHOLD Elsewhere in union strongholds through the thickly industrialized sections of the state, Republican Walter Edge got the majorities (excepting (ex-cepting only Boss Hague's district). Thus the changeover showed even in the case of a candidate who had CIO, AFL. the national administration administra-tion and the Jersey City machine. Such detailed evidence, on top of the already noticed decline in power of the American Labor party in New York, the San Francisco mayoralty result, Detroit and Kentucky, obviously obvi-ously confirm a national labor split-vote. split-vote. S S S LESS TIIAN NINETY DAYS? A man whom I believe is the best judge in the stock market does not believe the Nazis can last more than CO to 90 days more, and I would not doubt but what his guess might prove correct. I know of a manager of a Fifth avenue hotel who has been receiving letters from people asking reservations for a victory parade which has not even been scheduled or considered. That kind of guessing guess-ing costs less money than the stock market and is more indefinite. It is true that some officials will speak of a costly campaign of invasion in-vasion to come in 1914. but they generally gen-erally also mention "decisive events" which they say are at hand. They are likewise on sound military ground, even if events make them seem unreasonable. . A general naturally nat-urally must measure war prospects upon his own plans rather than in unexpected capitulation of an enemy. en-emy. S S REPUBLICAN LINE-UP Mr. Willkie said in Wisconsin that Governor Dewey could not run because be-cause he promised. This is true, yet practically all the ranking men of politics in both parties in the East currently consider Dewey as almost a certain nominee. Their reasoning is not hard to follow. fol-low. Ohio's Governor Bricker is now officially out seeking delegates, as predicted. The Favorite Son movement (of which Mr. Willkie also complained) is spreading through the West from the eastern Republican centers previously cited In this column. The lion's share of the South (old Taft following) is generally gen-erally attributed to Bricker. If you count all the rest for Willkie, Will-kie, it will be only enough to tie up the convention temporarily by preventing pre-venting Bricker or a favorite son from getting a majority. To the eastern leaders, that means Dewey certr.inly will be It. Mr. Willkie can upset this obvious trend only by winning a majority of primaries or by tying up with the Favorite Sons whom he already recognizes as against him. He has everything a candidate needs, including financial and publishing support. But it can be readily seen that Dewey can win aeainKt him without campaigning. |