Show T TAIJI lK I HELD FALSE FALS Writer Notes Signs of Continued Fair Prosperity I By Dr STUART V I WEST Correspondent I Copyright 1923 by bV The rhe Stand tand- tand Examiner ard NEW YORK May 19 What What Is known known as Wall Wail street treet sentiment meaning by this the th superficial opinion expressed by habitual trad trail traders trader I ers era er who are Interested In fluctuations and not In values Is seldon edo right In the end It was enthusiastically optimistic regarding the tb bus bus- bus business incas iness outlook and the possibilities ot of advancing prices when the th stout market was tas as at ot its top in March It II has pessimistic been just as aa violently LUc during the operations operation of ot th the thelast last two weeks with prices down on onI the tho average some om 11 to 12 points I This reversal In e son son- oa would not bo ho worth cons ering were it not for tor the th fact tha that these extraordinary swings In the tho all tho all street pi pUce pile Ice movement som have their effect effe-ct upon real Investors and upon tho the judgment ot of business men outside Th The IW- IW nv erae business men mon ma may profess to see ee nothing In a stock market marlet do- do da-clino da cline like that of ot the lISt 1 I two tW months but excessive speculation ou eli elithe the do downward n nard ard side aide succeedIng cx- cx ex excessive speculation tor for tI the adVance aa Ne remembering past er Cr- Cr e pert be ho cannot help some somo omo as to whether at- at atter attee at atter ter tee all the tha break brenk In stocks Is l not th precursor to a II serious later on Consequently ho he h may be b Influenced cod ced by bv happenings in Wall Vall street strett to gO co sow In his own commitments and it if this occurs occur In a large lar e way It Is quite conceivable that the tb Wul Wll movement mo might have an Im- Im portent ad cro ad erl c effect upon trade trado condl conditions Ons CAUSES LACKING There is i no ground tor for saying that the b bear r propaganda of ot the thelast thelast thelast last month or more mor has really aim aim- aimed aimed aim aimed ed at putting a 0 stop top to the tho growth s of the nations nation's business and bring Inc brins-Inc In log about another period of ot slon slon sion But Dut it is fair to that It the th reckless talk which has gOing about in speculative e circles and has been reflected to an e- e lent ex-lent tent in the stock market was to be betaken b taken seriously in the business s world it might have bave serious conan conan- con r 0 It ill is hard to believe this thi could 11 where there Is no cause But it Is l well continually 10 point out the essential facts about the present situation which differ differentiates en Itt tes I it t from others that ha have va resulted in trouble 10 O EDiT CR-EDiT DIT OVERSTRAIN In the first place there thoro has bas beers beef no credit overstrain Taking pr- pr bank loans and federal I le- le le e- e esen sen acne e rediscounts rediscount together the to- to toll to total tel tal Increase during all the tho ho buin sJ expansion since tinco the th first of ot the tho yeal has been een only some som At the th p peak k in 1923 1921 e banks were holding in discount dIscounted bills over today th they are holding less than n 7 In the second place and manufacturers are arc not over ove- ove- ove overstocked stocked with high priced goo gOods 4 They have havo a muc much freer Bu supply ply a tor for current usa current use than thO they had hod two months ago aco but this dog dou not mean that thy are going coins to stop buying in a manner such uch aD a anto to 10 cause causo a a sudden and radical shrinkage In the tho volume of ot cO 1 con consumption I ly is manufacturing costs especially illy the aage age question At the height ot of the excitement nt in March wh n stocks sere ere going colne up by leaps kapa an ens J and the th most extra predIctions were being beine made about the extent of ot the trade booms boom it was pointed out in these that mounting costs cot of ot I were the iol loek upon which all these calculations lre ver uk- uk ukly like likely ly Iy to split REMEDY ItE The writer still thinks now that thil th tIt It if every Ind Industry u try were situated th way the building Industry 1 i 1 the po- po position po position would be precarious But the remedy as it happened I In time Aside from Crom certain m- m ma materials entering Into building con con- construction construction con construction th tho scarcity has been re- re relIeved re relieved lIeve-d lIeve and prices have hav come dOWl dowa Cotton Is oft off over oter five cents cent a pound from Its it high steel Etcel on the th bet een 1 tl 60 GO and 2 a ton cop cop- copper cop copper per two cents a pou pound nd and fco so on the commodity lI list t This I check to th the rise in prices will effectually circumvent any further general demand fin tOI stage a c e Increases the tho problem ot of o operating costs hu has ho lost the ugly look it wore two months a ago o nL pJ When Whon steel mills get pet farther tarther along toward using up old orders order i on the books thy will probably curtail op- op op operations Steel bleet trade representatives tives would much prefer preter to hav vu ha-vu this occur than to continue ov over over- overtaxed taxed ovir-taxed r- r taxed as they have been v Inadequate supply of o labor clam prinE for or high pay The serious consideration as It I appeared two months ago aeo was that I I the tho th labor shortage would force such an increase oe in wages that the margin ot of profit not only in stell but in other lines Sines would be cut to tl toa toa a minimum Now with A dimin cUmin dIminished diminished production In in but with solution of the labor problem t entailed the outlook for tur reasonably profitable business I is distinctly brighter brichter GOLD EXPORTS The Tho record breaking excess ot of in merchandise imports over exports forr for tori April has started again discussion of the possibility ot of the possibility of ot gold shIpments front this country critics critiC are aro r agreed that this woul be a II good t thing both as tending to lo avoid tho the danger dancer of ot inflation at a home and d to help Europe to get pet on Its feet teet On the tho the theother other band the secretary of commerce and others who have talking about our losing some of the excess gold eold od surplus d not explain Just how this Is to b b-a b I done In spite of ot the trade trad balance having turned heavily against t trio United States sterling is quoted around 4 U 62 2 whereas the gold old point is U 4 4 88 II This differ differ- difference ence once might be composed were we-re Ill the Dank Bank of England to offer an at- at at attractive enough premium for gold del delis erles But so far tar not the slightest reason has hns appeared to warrant such action UI 01 Payments on Interest and amo- amo amo of ot the British war debt to 10 this country more than balance any excess which bloh Great Britain either directly or indirectly enjoys enjoy from the present merchandise trade trado Vitor U for the call so-call called so-called ell Invisible credit dented from Interest on holdings ot of American s I from ocean freight charges Insurance alice ance and other factors these forma form a small item in comparison wit i what they wore before 1914 1314 The Interesting test tent for tor the tho ster linK hug market will come corn very shortly now when Great Britain has com coin completed completed her h r preparations tor for the ibo neat payment on the tho war debt and when relieved of ot this special han ban handiCAP han handicap the value of ot the pound wIll wIllbo willbe willbo bo be able abl to better reflect the exact position in the international bal balance ance anco sheet |