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Show s Great Salt Lake Is Not Disappearing. Map Showing Resemblance Between Red Sea and Great Salt Lake Districts (Salt Lake Tribune.) According to some of the eastern papers, the Great Salt lake, in twenty-five twenty-five years, will be nothing but a salt-encrusted salt-encrusted desert and a memory. This pseudo-scientific theory has been promulgated pro-mulgated annually since 1880, despite all the facts which tell against it and the total improbability of such an event. . , During a certain year, or series of years, the lake has receded such and such a distance, Therefore the sensational sensa-tional writers seize pencils and proceed to figure out just how many years it will take for it to disappear entirely. The fallacy of such reasoning is apparent ap-parent when it is remembered that the lake has actually increased in size in the past year. By using the rise as a basis of calculation it can be demou-strted demou-strted that in 400 years, or such a matter, the Temple spires will be ten feet under water. . The history of the inland sea for the past fifty-seven years proves that there is no predetermined rate of growth or shrinkage, and that the lake is just as likely to be larger in twenty-five years as it is to be smaller. Its volume responds re-sponds very quickly to the rainfall derived de-rived from the Pacific ocean, and this is a factor which the newspaper scientists scien-tists omit from flieir calculations. Thre is no better authority in Salt Lake City on the variations of the lake than Marcus E. Jones. For twenty-five years he has studied the subject, and during that period he has collected a great amount of data' with which ,to back up his conclusions. He shows by convincing arguments that a variation va-riation of one inch above or below the normal annual rainfall produces a variation va-riation of one foot in the depth of the lake. The rainfall necessary to keep the lake at its present level is thirteen loeiuro jjn annum, ji .uin uecrcases- to twelve inche-s, the lake will' recede: if it increases to fourteen inches, the lake Avill rise. Mr. Jones disposes of a number ot fallacies recently promulgated by the eastern writers. It is asserted: 1. That the agencjv.respoiisible for the disappearance of . the Great Salt lake is distinctly of human origin; that the settlers have cut off the sources of fresh water supply for irrigation purposes. , Mr. Jones. says that until ten years ago the use of water for Irrigation made absolutely no difference in the height of the lake, and that the total loss traceable to this source has been j but six feet. Only a small percentage of the water used for irrigation is lost to the lake. By far the greater portion seeps into the ground and percolates to the lowest point in the valley, which is the bottom of the lake. During this underground progress the process of evaporation is arrested. The remainder of the irrigation waters are taken up by vegetation or absorbed by evaporation. evapora-tion. In the latter case they are condensed con-densed on reaching the AVasatch moun tains to tne east and precipitated in the form of rain or snow, only to swell the streams which 'flow back to the lake. The actual loss to the valley of water taken up by evaporation, says Mr. Jones, is about 25 per cent, which escapes es-capes over the rim of the mountains. If this loss is made up bv precipitation precipita-tion from the Pacific, the lake is not affected. 2. It is asserted that during past years the cutting of the timber on the neighboring 'mountains has been unusually un-usually heavy, practically destroving the' forest protection of the headwaters of a number of streams whose waters flow into the lake. Mr. Jones says that, in the first place the timber has not been cut, and in the second it would not reduce the volume of the lake if it were. The later the water is retained in the hills the mor is used in irrigation and the less rolls down to the lake in the spring freshets. fresh-ets. ' " It is a historical fact that the Pioneers, Pio-neers, who arrived here in 1S47, found the lake only thirty inches above its present level. The writers of that year could have amused themselves by predicting, pre-dicting, as do the writers of today, by forecasting the disappearance of the lake in 1S72. Yet we find that, by 186?, the surface has risen thirteen and one-half one-half feet. The rise was due entirely to the abnormal rainfall derived from the Pacific ocean. Since 1869 the lake has subsided sixteen feet, but not steadily, as the eastern theories would imply. The variations occur in cycles. Each year, for a certain period, the level grows higher; then for a certain num ber of years, lower and lower. The annual an-nual rises become Jess and the annual declines greater until the process is reversed; re-versed; the rises become greater, the declines less, and a new cycle begins. Mr. Jones has arrived at the conclusion conclu-sion that these cycles are determined bj the effect of sun spots on climaiic conditions. He finds that the precipitation precipita-tion from abroad is greatest when the sun spots are at their maximum and he argues that the minimum of precipitation precipita-tion for this cycle was reached four or five years ago. From this time forward, for-ward, according to his observations, the more pronounced and the droughts less severe until the recurrence of- conditions con-ditions such as existed in 1S69 some -50 years hence. Even admitting, however, that the iecession of the lake continues uninterruptedly uninter-ruptedly for several years. Mr. Jones can demonstrate that it cannot shrink to less than one-fourth its present size. Between Antelope and Stansbury islands is a v-shaped trough in which the water is now thirty-three feet deep. Should the recession continue to the edge of this basin its depth would prevent pre-vent its disappearance. The loss by evaporation would not exceed six feet !'-- jwi aim me muurai innow would replace this for an indefinite period. The really important feature of the recession of the lake, from Mr. Jones' standpoint, is the decrease of its stir-face stir-face area which, he maintains, causes a corresponding failure of rainfall. He finds that 75 per cent of the water taken tak-en up by the sun and 'wind is precipitated precipi-tated in the valley as rain or snow. The greater the water area the greater the evaporation and the. heavier the rinfall. Hence he advocates the filling of the lake from Snake river or the streams east of the range. Not content with depriving Utah of its greatest lake the eastern press in-I in-I sists on ruining its seaside resorts. It j is told in a recent publication that Saltair is practically deserted and that the magnificent pier, erected at a cost of half a million dollars, presents the pathetic appearance of having been lifted bodily from the water's edge and set back a mile or two from the shore. This is not a scientific error, but a plain prevarication. Saltair is still lapped by the salt waves and is doing as great a business as ever. The planUng of piles has had a tendencv to I cause an accumulation of sand about the base, but this would have resulted even without the falling of the lake. Garfield is the only resort which has been abandoned in recent years, and it j Avas closed for business reasons while j the water was still within a few feet of I the pavilion. One of the most interesting facts in I connection with Great Salt lake is its I topographical resemblance to the Dead sea in Palestine. The Jordan river corresponds cor-responds to the Jordan of Holv Writ and Utah lake to the sea of Tiberius. On revising, the map of Palestine the resemblance to the map of Utah is found to be remarkable. . The coincidence coin-cidence was not lost on the early Mormon Mor-mon settlers, who attributed great religious re-ligious significance to the parallel. The phenomenon further suggests the thought that the Dead sea has endured for a great many centuries and that Salt lake will enjoy as prolonged an existence. |