| Show The Salt Lake Tribune 1998: Heres What To Expect Globally Continued From A-- l NATIONWORLD Sunday December 28 new more moderate leadership of President Mohammad Khatami Saudi Arabia Egypt and other Arab states that gave a cold shoulder to the recent regional economic conference now are looking more warmly at the Islamic regime in Tehran Islamic insurgencies still bedevil two secular Arab governments Muslim militants in Egypt are increasand ingly torn between calling a unilateral cease-fircontinuing attacks that angered many Egyptians by killing more than 60 foreigners in 1997 and devastating the tourism industry In Algeria the government is locked in a bitter battle with religious militants that has killed 75000 people since 1992 e let more indebted banks and companies close rather than try to prop them up Hong Kong will hold its first elections under Chinese rule Chinese President Jiang Zemin plans cautious moves to reorganize or close state industries His main challenge will be containing protests from laid-of- f workers making 1998 an unlikely year for political reform or softening on dissent Beijings tense relationship with Taiwan likely will be tested if forces on the island gain seats as expected in legislative elections debt-ridde- n EUROPE The European Union (EU) in one of the biggest steps toward unity in continental history is beginning the process of joining a dozen countries in a single currency The new notes and coins wont fill cash registers until 2002 but the 15 EU leaders will decide over a long weekend in May who gets in on the first wave Eastern Europe will join the unity act as well when EU enlargement negotiations open with a number of former Soviet bloc nations Three of those nations Poland Hungary and Czech Republic also anxiously await ratification of their invitations to join the NATO military alliance At the same time NATO is looking for ways to bring the suspicious Russians closer Bosnia will continue to preoccupy Europeans It is virtually certain the NATO-le- d peace force will extend its mission past June on the widely accepted assumption that withdrawal would lead to a resumption of war Two other clouds loom in the Balkans between Serbs and Albanians in the Serbian province of Kosovo and between Albanians and Macedonians in Macedonia Germans will decide in September whether to reward Chancellor Helmut Kohl with an unprecedented fifth term as head of Europes most powerful economy FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS Persuading the people of former Soviet states and Russians in particular that reform is starting to work will again dominate the region in 1998 And stability in Russia is vital to world stability Ask Russians to sum up in a single word whats wrong with their country and many will say reform Ask what they mean by reform and they start ticking off the problems: rising crime going without pay for months falling life expectancy For all the grumbling there are signs of progress since the Soviet collapse of 1991 Russia expects to see its first economic growth since the 1980s Individual rights are improving And there are signs of prosperity in a few cities Progress in most other former Soviet nations lags The problem reformers say is that decades of communist mismanagement cannot be fixed quickly It will take years to turn Russia and its neighbors into liberal democracies but each year that passes peacefully boosts chances of success Russia can still go wrong and some Central Asian nations and Belarus are sliding back to autocracy Russias communists and nationalists hope they can ride peoples disillusionment to power Hard-liner- s are hoping for big gains in Ukraines parliamentary elections in March MIDEAST Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat face critical decisions that will determine the direction of the peace process Under pressure from the United States Israel plans to offer to yield more land to the Palestinians but it may not be enough to win back Arab confidence about Israel's overall intentions Another key test probably will be whether Israel is willing to curtail expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank which Arafat wants as part of an independent Palestinian state For his part Arafat will have to restrain Islamic militants and prevent suicide bombings to keep Israelis in a mood to compromise Israels talks with Syria are unlikely to move forward unless Netanyahu's conservative government changes its policy and agrees to a deep withdrawal from the Golan Heights Iran is gaining influence in the region under the LATIN AMERICA President Clinton plans to join Western Hemisphere leaders at Aprils Summit of the Americas in Chile Free trade is at the top of the agenda But with Clinton struggling to win support for that at home Latin Americans are moving ahead with their own free-trad- e zones The political bloodshed of the 1980s is fading into history in most of the Americas replaced by concerns about violent crime and the seemingly eternal problem of dire poverty Most of the region's largest countries Argentina Mexico and Chile among them expect strong economic growth from policies though benefits have been slow to trickle down to the poor Brazil was hurt by Asia's financial crisis causing problems for President Fernando Hennque Carin 1998 doso who is expected to seek A more unusual race is shaping up in Venezuela where Miss Universe 1981 Irene Saez is considered a strong contender for the presidency She has generally won praise as mayor of Chacao Drugs and political violence continue to plague Colombia and Mexico free-mark- CARIBBEAN Pope John Paul II's historic trip to Cuba will pose a challenge for Fidel Castro and the Roman Catholic Church whose relations have been frosty if not hostile since the 1959 revolution Castros communist government hopes the Jan visit will enhance its image by showing religious tolerance One possible windfall: a papal denunciation of the US economic embargo of Cuba The church meanwhile hopes John Paul II can galvanize believers on the island and broaden its influence among Cuba's 11 million people Cuba officially embraced atheism in 1962 Cuba wants more regional trade and Caribbean countries are prepared to bring it back into the fold While Washington disapproves of such moves area leaders grumble that the US government hasn't come through with aid and scholarships promised at a regional summit last May Look for some of those pledges to be fulfilled in 1998 The drug trade is thriving Squeezed in Mexico traffickers are turning to the Caribbean as a preferred trade route Washington will be fortifying its interdiction efforts in the region in coming months 1998 may be a watershed year for Haiti UN peacekeepers are gone and the government is paralyzed by infighting putting the US backed democratic experiment in the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation at risk 21-2- 5 AFRICA Four African giants Nigeria Congo Sudan and South Africa will set the continent's tone in 1998 Nigerias dictator Gen Sani Abacha will attempt the transformation from military ruler to popular politician if he goes through with August elections Laurent-Desire Kabila Congos new strongman aid and foreign inwill try to obtain vestment while attempting to keep at bay those who call for a more open government and respect for human rights In Sudan President Omar continues to insist his Islamic-base- d government is sincere about allowing regional autonomy for southern Sudan But rebels backed by neighboring countries and the United States will keep chipping away at northern authority South Africans are preparing for the day they will have to live without President Nelson Mandela Thabo Mbeki has just replaced him as leader of the governing African National Congress and is widely expected to become president in two years l conflict continues in Rwanda where Hutu rebels are stepping up attempts to destabilize the government Personal rivalries remain a threat to the stability of Charles Taylors civilian regime in Liberia and doubts persist the military junta in Sierra Leone will keep its promise to return power to the elected government it overthrew much-neede- d ir Assessment Of Forecast For Planet From Previous Page areas But when it comes to human reproduction the news contrasts starkly with 1972s dark vision Limits relying on the best projections available foresaw the world population almost doubling from 38 billion in 1972 to 7 billion in 2000 Instead it will barely reach 6 billion Its growth rate has fallen from 2 percent a year to 14 percent Around the world people chose to have fewer children explains Joel E Cohen a leading American demographer and author of a definitive work on the Earth's carrying capacity" The key reason Cohen cites: More women worldwide are educated and working engaged in a In life beyond childbearing 1970 for every 100 men economically active there were 37 women Cohen said In 1990 there were 62 women Other factors include China's policy and the flow of international aid for family planning Today in Bangladesh for example 36000 female fertility workers dispense contraceptives in the teeming countryside where none roved in 1972 But the good news comes with asterisks Even if overcrowded Bangladesh hits ideal familyplanning targets its population density in the next century will top out at 3600 people per square mile triple the number when MITs computers did their forecasting If the slowdown in the world population's growth is noteworthy the improvement in its health has been remarkable When The Limits to Growth was published worldwide average life expectancy at birth stood at 53 years By 1995 it had reached 67 Much of the credit for greater survival goes to fuller stomachs and credit for that goes to and the other green revolutionaries who brought improved seed and advanced farming to the Third World Global food production almost doubled in the past generation while cultivated land expanded barely 5 percent The Limits scenarists had feared a population squeeze on farmland But so far we havent run into any land constraint in a global sense said Nikos Alexan-drato- s chief global forecaster for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization m Rome Said Borlaug With the technology we already have available well be able to feed 8 billion people in 2025 the world population theyre projecting But food too comes with an asterisk: By FAO estimate more Bor-lau- g All 1997 than 800 million people remain malnourished people too poor to buy the abundant food that higher yields produce That is the problem Borlaug said Equality of distribution" There would be plenty more money to distribute While human numbers grew just over 50 percent in the 25 years human economic output doubled And the global economy didnt just balloon: it took on surprising new forms delinking in part from energy and materials producing much more value especially in services without digging up or pumping out quite so many resources in relative terms dustrialized northern world since the 1970s But not in the developin China alone 3 miling south lion deaths since 1994 are blamed on unhealthy air And cleaning up downstream and downwind did little to protect against new planetary menaces barely contemplated m The Limits to Growth By the late 1970s scientists determined that mans chemicals were thinning the atmospheres ozone layer threatening damage to life on Earth A 1987 global treaty may help repair it But on another threat global warming treaty negotiations are near deadlock Most scientists have concluded carbon-dioxid- Confounding the Model: The Limits of Growth projections foresaw rapid depletion of minerals US government data of 1972 indicated only 21 years' worth of copper was left globally only 15 years of tin only 13 of silver Petroleum could run out by 1992 The Club of Rome team knew more reserves would be discovered but the computer told them it didn't matter galloping growth would chew so much raw material so quickly and prices would rise so sharply that crisis would ineiitably strike Instead mineral prices have declined in real terms and the lifespan of reserves still stretches decades ahead for key metals When theres an economic in- centive disasters" Some resource problems are also taking on a global look Man today uses 200 cubic miles more water annually than 25 the equivalent of a years ago week's flow over Niagara Falls Shortages are growing acute Farmland irrigation is running up against limits Water is likely to prove the most important constraint on raisconcluded ing food production the UN Critical Trends study Thats bad news for agriculture Since the huge gains of the Green Revolution global farm productivity has leveled off: production of grain has declined by 1 percent a year since s At the same time the the ocean fish catch seems to have hit a ceiling Food prices are likely to hold or go higher staying beyond the reach of hundreds of millions left behind as an economic gap widens Although income in developing nations doubled in the past 25 years as East Asian economies industrialized the wealth of wealthier countries grew much faster Today the richest 20 percent of the worlds population collects 85 percent of world income up from 70 percent a generation ago Those who monitor global trends dont see a world system in collapse as feared by the Club of Rome but a world splintering between a creative capital-ric- h north and vast swaths of a south where the land is eroded and unproductive the growing population hungry the politics chaotic the wars endless and migrations monumental Its an ingenuity race in other words that some countries are comes technology through said economist Marilyn Biviano sustainability" chief for the US Geological Survey In the past generation miners have penetrated the polar north and under the sea and made ever-widuse of leaching the technology of percolating metals out of ores w ith liquids er 21st-centur- y Per-capi- ta Recycling Works: But the engineering of extraction is hardly the whole story Recycling underpins much of today's heay indus- mid-1980- of the aluminum try: One-thirused in manufacturing for example is drawn not from the earth but from old products And metals have given way in the age-ol- d process of substitution plastic taking tins place in containers displacing copper in communications wiring In the biggest industry of all substitution and effienergy ciencies were spurred by oil price shocks in the 1970s Fadhil Chalabi former chief of the OPEC oil cartel points out a remarkable fact: The established industrial nations burn less oil v than they did in the late 1970s After relentless exploration in the Saudi desert the Arctic and the North Sea global petroleum reserves are now reckoned at 1 trillion barrels more than twice the dwindling reserves of the early 1970s Many electric grids meamvhile switched over to gas or nuclear power and were drivcars and ing more working in more buildings of Rome In the years man has simply learned to be lighter smarter on the Earth And cleaner? In many ways air and water pollution has declined in the in to-da- fuel-savin- g losing The heat-efficie- post-Clu- emissions are e warming the atmosphere Such climate change could be an economic catastrophe The great preoccupation of the Club of Rome study running out of raw materials proved not to be the problem said Kenneth Ruffing a top economist for the United Nations "But for a handful of truly global problems there is a risk that too much temporizing on the political level could lead to major limits" mankind confronts a generation later are the limits that divide it between those who see the next millennium as a golden age and those who dont see how they'll make it to next year b Low-leve- d Sale! End Year If it's in stock it's on sale m EVE SPECIALS!! 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