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Show Page 8 The Ogden Valley news Volume XIX Issue VI June 15, 2011 Stronger U.S. Economic Growth to Benefit Weber County’s Small Business Sector Highlights • Weber County lost 200 jobs (down 0.2%) in the latest 12-month period. Joblessness registered 8.2%, down from the 8.7% unemployment rate one year ago. • The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 118.6 in April 2011, down from a revised 119.7 in March 2011. • Utah’s unemployment rate was estimated at 7.6% in the latest month, down from the 7.7% rate of the prior month. Total Utah employment grew by an estimated 18,900 jobs during the past 12 months. • Strengthening U.S. economic growth over the balance of the year, following weak first quarter 2011 performance, will benefit Utah’s small businesses. • The U.S. economy added an estimated 244,000 net new jobs in April, exceeding economists’ consensus forecast of a gain of 185,000 jobs. The private sector’s addition of 268,000 jobs in April was the largest monthly gain in more than five years. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.0% in April, versus March’s 8.8% rate. Weak employment as measured within the household survey accounted for much of the rise. U.S. Economic Growth Likely to Improve U.S. economic growth slowed during 2011’s first quarter, impacted by higher energy prices and poor weather. Such growth is likely to pick up speed in coming quarters. The American economy grew at a 1.8% real (after inflation) annual rate during the January– March 2011 quarter, the weakest performance since 2010’s second quarter. Growth during 2010’s final quarter was at a 3.1% pace, with real growth during 2010 at 2.9%, the best in five years. In contrast, the U.S. economy fell at a 2.6% real rate in 2009. Higher gasoline costs and fragile consumer confidence led overall consumer spending to rise at a 2.7% real annual rate, down from the more robust 4.0% real annual pace of the prior quarter. Fierce winter storms closed businesses and delayed building projects in much of the U.S. during the first quarter. Blizzards led nonresidential construction activity to decline at a 21.7% annual rate during the quarter, following a modest increase in 2010’s final quarter. In addition, severe pressures on state and local government spending and a sharp decline in military outlays led total government spending to decline at the fastest rate since 1983 (bloomberg.com). Federal government spending, when compared to the prior quarter, declined the most in 11 years. Most forecasters see first quarter economic weakness as an aberration, rather than the norm. Forecasting economists see growth returning to a 3.0%-3.5% real annual rate in coming quarters, with some forecasts even stronger. The Federal Reserve reduced its own forecast of 2011 U.S. economic growth to a 3.1%-3.3% real rate, down from the 3.4%-3.9% forecast range announced last January. The major unknown still involves oil price volatility tied to political & military conflicts in Northern Africa and in the Middle East. Other major issues of European sovereign debt anxiety and what will happen in coming weeks relative to future U.S. government spending and the debt ceiling also makes forecasting challenging. The pace of U.S. economic growth is a component of the Utah Small Business Index. Stronger U.S. economic growth typically leads to stronger growth at the state and regional level. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 118.6 during April 2011, down from a revised 119.7 during March 2011. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A lower Index number is associated with less favorable business conditions for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index includes revisions to various historical and new forecast components as they become available. Utah Employment The Utah unemployment rate—the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah—was estimated at 7.6% in the latest month, down from the prior month’s 7.7% rate. The 7.6% rate compares to an 8.0% rate during the same month one year ago. A lower Utah unemployment rate is a negative contributor to the Index, as it implies decreased access to Utah labor. Other associated factors typically tied to a lower unemployment rate, such as greater job creation, greater income gains, and higher retail sales pull the Index higher. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 7.7 during 2010, 7.1% during 2009, 3.7% in 2008, 2.8% in 2007, and 3.0% in 2006. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 5.0% during the 2001 to 2005 period, and an average 3.5% rate between 1995 and 2000. Total Utah employment grew by an estimated 18,900 jobs (up 1.6%) over the past 12 months. This increase compares to a revised gain of 20,300 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. Utah lost 7,800 jobs in 2010, lost 63,700 jobs in 2009, lost 800 jobs in 2008, and added 49,600 jobs in 2007, 55,700 jobs in 2006, 43,700 jobs in 2005, and 30,200 jobs in 2004. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period and a net loss of 1,300 jobs in 2001 through 2003. More recently, job gains leading to greater income creation and stronger retail spending have a positive impact upon Utah’s small businesses…and therefore, the Index. Local Performance Weber County lost 200 jobs (down 0.2%) in the latest 12-month period. Joblessness registered 8.2%, down from the 8.7% unemployment rate one year ago. National Employment The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net gain of 244,000 jobs in April 2011, stronger than the 185,000 net gain expected. The rise of 268,000 jobs in the private sector was also stronger than expectations and was the largest monthly gain since February 2006. In addition, previously reported gains in February and March were revised higher by 46,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9.0% in April, versus March’s 8.8% rate. A decline in estimated employment within the household survey (from which the unemployment rate is derived) accounted for most of the rate increase. The household survey had previously reported outsized gains in employment. The current 9.0% jobless rate compares to the 9.8% rate of one year ago, the 8.9% rate of April 2009, and the 4.9% rate during April 2008. Goods-producing employment rose by 44,000 jobs in April. Manufacturing employment rose by 29,000 positions. Construction added 5,000 jobs, while mining and logging employment rose by 10,000 jobs. Private-sector service-providing employment rose in April by 224,000 positions. Professional & business services added 51,000 jobs, while retail trade added 57,000 jobs. Financial activities employment rose by 4,000 positions. The education & health services sector added 49,000 jobs, while leisure & hospitality added 46,000 jobs. Overall government employment fell by 24,000 jobs during the month, tied to weakness at the state and local level. The U.S. economy suffered a net decline of 3.6 million jobs during 2008, the worst year since 1945. The net loss of 5.1 million jobs during 2009 easily surpassed the 2008 total. The American economy added 940,000 net new jobs during 2010, or 78,000 per month. We estimate a net gain of 2.6 million jobs during 2011. Roughly 130,000 net new jobs need to be added monthly just to meet the needs of a rising population, and just to keep the unemployment rate stable. For more information visit <www.zionsbank. com> Road Respect Program Overview As an increasing number of cyclists are taking to Utah’s roads for commuting and pleasure, the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) and the Utah Department of Public Safety (DPS) are sponsoring a “Road Respect” share the road campaign designed to inform motorists and cyclists about the rules of the road. As the number of cyclists increases, so does the need for motorists and cyclists to know and comply with the rules of the road. The Road Respect program goal is to educate both groups of roadway users—cyclists and motorists—on the rules of the road, to encourage compliance, and to facilitate respect among all roadway users. The program’s tagline, “Cars and Bikes. Rules to Live By.” is a reminder that respect is a two-way street. Launching in June, the program includes outreach and advertising initiatives continuing through the summer. The program’s main messages include safety and helping both groups understand and follow the laws, or rules, of the road. About the Road Respect Tour - To kick off the program, a group of 25 cyclists comprised from UDOT, DPS, law enforcement, health departments, other state agencies, and bicycle advocacy groups will participate in a weeklong bike tour, dubbed the Road Respect Tour, beginning June 13 in Logan and concluding in St. George on June 18. As the ride moves south, from town to town, community Road Respect Rallies and Stops will be hosted, with the goal of increasing respect among motorists and cyclists. The public is invited to participate and attend these free events. More details and a list of stops and rallies are found on the program website <RoadRespect.Utah.gov> Rules of the Road—Tips for Cyclists and Motorists Tips for cyclists l l l l l l l l l l l l l When not impeding traffic, ride no more than two abreast. When a car is coming or when you are riding in traffic, ride single file. Obey all traffic signs, signals, and lane markings. If you want the respect of motorists, you must show respect for traffic laws. l Ride with the flow of traffic. l Ride on the right side of the roadway or bike lane as far to the right side as safely possible. l It is acceptable to ride in the middle of the lane if you are making a left turn, if the intersection is busy, if there are obstacles impeding the bike lane, or if you are moving at the same speed as traffic. Don’t weave between parked cars or cars stopped at red lights. Wear bright clothing that increases your visibility to motorists. When riding at dusk or dark, use reflective clothing and lights. Always wear a helmet. Your helmet should sit level on your head and the straps should be snug. Make eye contact with motorists when making a turn, so each party is aware of one another. When entering or crossing a road from a parking lot, driveway, or crosswalk, yield to vehicles already on the road. Ride predictably. Signal when turning. Be respectful of other road users. Courtesy is contagious.Tips for motorists Give at least three feet of space when passing a bicyclist. If traveling on higher-speed roads, give more space. Watch for bicycles in traffic; they are smaller and harder to see. ROAD RESPECT cont. on page 12 |
