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Show Volume XIV THE Issue X OGDEN VALLEY NEWS Page 17 February 15, 2007 cont. from page 15 dvises communities like ours—beautiful, recreational, and accessible. His predictions about property price escalation have proven out and building is occurring at a far quicker pace than anticipated in the carrying capacity and water system studies completed just a few years before (the recreation study midlevel growth estimate was 8% per year). To put “units” into perspective, the 2000 U.S. Census says Box Elder County had 14,000 units, Summit County 17,000, the city of Logan had 14,700 units, North Ogden and Pleasant View combined had 6,400, and Ogden Valley had 2,314. Y Traffic Congestion Preparation for the Recreation Element of the General Plan analyzed our roads and traffic conditions. In 2002, 3,000 units were using 30% of the three roads in and out of our Valley, and the 8,000 units projected in 2020 will use 80% of capacity (105% in July). Ogden Canyon will be first to hit the Utah Department of Transportation’s (UDOT) “E” level of service (gridlock), then the traffic will divert over Trappers Loop and the North Ogden Divide at a stop-and-go level of service much of the time (level “D”). Even if we assume future Valley residents will oa Substantially less then we do now, and e assume future Utahns and out of = ee will begin to recreate less in our Valley, there is no doubt that we will be beyond current capacity as we hit the 11,000 units projected by 2030. den Canyon has a capacity of 12,500 vehicles per day, North Ogden Divide 9,500, and Trappers Loop 17,500 for a total of around 40,000 vehicles per day. UDOT has no existing plans to increase capacity on any of these roads, and have stated that we are never likely to see increased capacity developed in Ogden Canyon or over the North Ogden Divide. Within our Valley, the first severe congestion point will be where Highway 39 and SR158 intersect at the dam. The next will be where either of these roads encounters much “cross traffic” as drivers turn on and off the roads into resorts, commercial areas, subdivisions, etc. We Don’t Have Many Choices As of February 2007, we are at a crucial decision point with three clear alternatives: * Choice A. Down zoning. Restrict the number of building units allowed to something more on the order of the maximums indicatedi in An carrying capacity analysis (6,200 ui * Choice B. ‘Allow ara zoning to prevail, allowing around 17,000 units, and work hard to mitigate their impact on the quality of life we enjoy; for example, more roads, more sewer treatment, more restrictions on how and where the units will be developed, purchase and retire development rights, ete. This requires a leap of faith that technologies and taxes can increase our Valley’s carrying capacity by approximately three times via mass transit, bigger or more roads, development of waste water treatment facilities, culinary water systems, air pollution controls, secondary water systems, etc * Choice C. Allow development forces to prevail and let market forces dictate the number of units allowed; for example, condo-hotels are hot right now, so allow as many as developers can sell. Eventually, market forces will limit the number of units as the market is saturated and our Valley becomes less attractive as development replaces natural resources. The County commission adopted the Recreation Element into the General Plan in 2005. Choice A was considered, perhaps at a higher build-out level, but was rejected because it didn’t have the support of the commission. Choice C was promoted by a ew people but was rejected because it seemed ridiculous and irresponsible to most. Choice B is embodied in their preferred Scenario IV, which argues for a combination of TDRs, large-scale resorts, large lot and open space preferences, and the purchase of development rights in order to retire them. os TRUTH The TDR (Transfer of Development Rights) Solution The proposed TDR and Resort Zone ordinances provide some mitigation of impact on the high number of units eet under choice B. In essence, TDRs grant an additional property right to landewners they can separate and sell their development rights from their land (much as water rights can be bought and sold and applied to different land). The Resort Zone component makes it possible for master-planned resorts to buy and transfer development rights to their projects. r example, with a TDR program, a landowner is able to sell some or all of the development rights off their land. This especially appeals to those of us who want to stay on our land in its current state for as long as we can. TDRs allow us to sell some of the value from our property today while keeping it just as it is for as long as we wa When it is finally developed, perhaps by my children, it will be a development of large lots (the remaining development rights), a legacy and gift to them in an increasingly congested valley. For large land owners, it can literally mean ‘ few million now and many more in the future. With willing buyers, it also allows the land owner to contribute something that is priceless on to future generations— the Valley we love... our heritage. On the other hand, without a TDR program, landowners are left with fewer options: develop the land now at the greatest density possible or live poor. Willing buyers can come from developers who want to concentrate units on land where the a density (units/acre) does not currently a’ it. lominium projects, and village centers are all examples of development where the concentration of homes and people creates the desired atmosphere in conjunction with the necessary commercial support services. Without TDRs, the only way to increase density is for the commission to grant additional units via re-zoning, which may or may not happen; a risky business model to say the least. Willing buyers can also come from cluster subdivision developers who want to increase their units beyond that allowed under the primary zoning ordinance. Without TDRs, developers are grant “bonus” units to encourage clustered subdivisions. Unfortunately, this can contribute another 1,000 units to that already projected in under the build-out scenario. With TDRs, developers can buy and transfer even more density to their project without increasing the overall density in Ogden Valle: Finally, willing buyers are generated with the expansion of commercial zones where one TDR can be traded for 2,000 square feet of commercial space. Without TDRs, the only way to expand commercial areas is for the County Commission to grant a re-zone and “give” the increased value of the property to the petitioner. With TDRs, commercial area expansion enhances open space generation. The TDR solution is a “cap and trade” economic model, whereby the placement of a hard cap on the number of units and then allowing them to be traded (transferred) creates a viable market. Any reduction in the available units further increases the value of a unit; for example, if units are retired by way of the Ogden Valley Land Trust and restricted from development, the remaining units’ value tends to increase. One the other hand, removing the cap destroys the market as the value of a unit is diluted and declines Ogden Valley can be the economic engine of Weber County if we developa an attractive recreation community relative to other mountain areas competing for the same customers. Four concepts to consider: Deer Valley employs 6,000 people; second homes are assessed at 100% of market value (whereas primary homes are assessed at 60%); vacationers don’t put kids in our schools; second home owners drive less than we low it, we will experience the same painful boombust cycles Summit County has gone through as the Valley loses its competitiveness as an attractive place to live and recreate. Except our situation may be worse: they have I-80. Also, we live in a ay ee ae they don’t. TDR program is our best bet for the one ofa sustainable economic engine in Ogden Valley. Is a TDR Bank-able? A developer will look at TDRs this way: I paid $1,000,000 for a piece of property that has four building units attached to it. I paid another $1,000,000 for 20 TDRs I can transfer to the property to increase the density and make my project viable. When I go to the bank looking for a loan, I want/need them to see $2,000,000 in collateral: $1MM for the real estate and another $1MM to put additional units on. My business model had a property costper-unit of $250K before TDRs versus $84K after TDRs; thus, in fact, you should loan me more. A bank looks at it this way: As long as the rights are properly recorded against the property, there is no problem. In fact, the dramatically reduced land cost-perunit makes the business model stronger and decreases the chances ofa bad loan. However, the bank must also weigh the likelihood the County Commission will remove the cap and undermine the market, thereby devaluing the units. If there is reasonable confidence the county will keep the cap in place, and if TDRs are being traded at progressively higher prices, banks may consider TDRs themselves as an asset that can be viewed as collateral How do TDRs Relate to County Legal Concerns? * Choice A (reduce the number of units via up-zoning) will produce challenges to “taking” property rights. Also, it is likely developers will scramble to get projects approved before the zoning changes take place, just in case (this happened in 1998), thereby offsetting the reduction in units intended by the up-zoning. It is unlikely the County Commission has the political or legal assets to litigate any challenges. * Choice B (buying, selling, and transferring TDRs) requires a healthy TDR market to mitigate growth impact. If the county increases the number of units in a cap-and-trade market model, the act dilutes the value of units already on the market. For the TDR market to work, the county must impose a hard cap on the number of units allowed. ¢ Choice C (no limit on units) returns us to the wild West. Those who get their units built and sold before we exceed carrying capacity will make big profits. Those who get additional units for free, via re-zoning, will make even bigger profits and push us even faster to capacity. Those who wait, along with everyone else who lives here, will have to deal with all of the issues associated with exceeding carrying capacity: scarce irrigation and drinking water, high levels of sewer treatment facilities, air pollution controls (e.g., oxygenated gas, no-burn days), and inadequate ead parenion infrastructure. Here is a brief primer on what we know about Ogden Valley building units. ¢ As of early 2007, Ogden Valley has around 3,000 constructed homes/dwellings (units). ¢ All the construction we see is the begining of an additional [need to determine this number] 2000 [WAG] units that have been approved by the county for construction. ¢ Another 1000 [WAG] or so units that we know about are in some phase of planning. * Zoning laws and planning ordinances dic- ¢ laws and ordinances allow at least 17,000 units or another 10,000 over the carry capacity of 6,200. A landowner can request a rezone to allow more units on his property, but such requests are subject to public meetings and are approved by vote of the county commissioners following a review and recommendations from the approved since the one-unit-per-three acres zoning was adopted in 1998; at least one request is pending as of February 2007 ¢ According to the Recreation Element of the Ogden Valley General Plan, we must search for methods to retire existing units, mostly by the good graces of the larger landowners who may elect to purchase development rights (and not use them) or transfer property and their TDRs to the Ogden Valley Land Trust. Some money may be available through government and private land preservation programs, but the high prices for land right now makes it tough. In 2002, ¢ Ogden Canyon was running e 350 vehicles per day, 58.8% of capac (12,500)...runs at 73.2% of cavacity in summer. About the same as 1998 count of 7325. ¢ Trappers counted 3,740 vehicles per day, 21.4% of capacity (17,500) 26.6% in summer; about double the count of 1805 in 1998. ¢ North Ogden Divide had 960 vehicles per day, 10.1% of capacity (9,500), 12.6% in oe down from 1998 count of1 * Overall, ae is an average of 4.02 vehicles per day per unit ¢ The Recreation Element (2005) predicts 8020 units by 2020, which will produce an additional 24,000 vehicles per day; the whole system runs at 92% on an average day and exceeds capacity to 114% in summer. Subscriptions available for out of area residents at $18.00 annually. Send payment with mailing woe THE OGDEN PO BOX 130, LIBERTY to: VALLEY NEW EDEN UT en HOME FOR SALE PRICE REDUCED! Liberty home with 6 BD, 6 BA, 2 FR, 2 kitchens, 2 laundrys, 2 Serving the Ogden Valley &L Surrounding Areas Nancy K. Stukan, e-PRO 801-866-2848 Wedding { Event Equipment. 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