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Show 1 r Thursday. December 31 1961 mntah Basin Standard 19 Business and financial forecast for 1982 Though early 1982 retail trade will be dampened by uneasiness over business and employment prospects, consumer sentiment will eventually respond favorably to the betterment in disposable income what will result from recovery in employment and a further reduction in federal income tax rates. Hence, consumer buying can be expected to top that of 1981 by a comfortable margin, with the third and fourth 1982 quarters chalking up the best gains. The economy will also benefit from higher government After midyear, for expenditures. example, defense outlays will be noticeably on the upbeat CORPORATE PROFITS DIVIDENDS Business profits in 1982 will be up compared with 1981. During the past year corporate earnings were adversely affected by the deterioration in the tempo of business. There should be EMPLOYMENT PERSONAL INCOME Despite spreading work force cutbacks in recent months, employment remains in a historically high range. While further small-scal- e furloughs are likely this winter, employment should recover thereafter. The unemployment picture is less reassuring. It will be nip and tuck as to whether the jobless rate can be kept from a double-dighigh sometime this winter. For the record, however, we are hopeful that the jobless pool will not surpass 9 percent of the civilian labor force before easing in response to a quickening Jiusiness pace. The unemployment rate will average around 8 percent for 1982 as a whole, only marginally below that of 1981. Yet the problem of a sizable hard core of jobless workers will remain a critical issue. Personal income will trend higher in the year ahead. However, only an upward bias will be seen during much of the first half because layoffs will offset wage increases. When Eartially resume, the income advance will be more noticeable. The climb of disposable income (take-hom- e pay) will be accentuated after midyear by another stepdown in federal personal income tax rates. The Social Security tax rate will be higher next year but the income tax reduction will leave most consumers with more to spend. Though 1982 will be a big year for major labor contract renewals, the odds are against long and disruptive s in the pattern-settin- g basic industries. Like it or not, labor leaders are finding that they must tread softly in enterprises beleaguered by foreign competition and where work forces have been trimmed. However, once the economy regains its forward momentum, labor's stance can be expected to stiffen. CONSUMER AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING it better profits showing virtually throughout 1982, and on progressively improved comparisons with each passing quarter. The reduction in the corporate profits tax rate will be an important factor in increases at the bottom line". Though brighter prospects for corporate profits auger well for increases in dividend rates in 1982, hikes in payouts will tend to be of moderate size in most instances. Corporate liquidity needs to be reinforced and this will take time. AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK It is difficult to make a case for any substantial betterment for the beleaguered agricultural segment of the economy in 1982. There are gluts in supplies of major products that boosts militate against any large-scal- e in farm prices. Unleu adverse weather patterns over large sections of the nation's growing areas threaten a significant alteration of supply-deman- d balances at crucial points in the crop year, farm quotes will not year-to-ye- tie-up- Brent Larson, Neola, was the lucky winner of the Christmas gift stocking given away last week by Percy Stewart of Stewart's Thriftway in Roosevelt. No purchase was necessary to be eligible. CHRISTAAAS SOCK WINNER improve appreciably. Therefore, no substantial recovery in overall farm income appears to be in the cards for 1982. It is likely, however, that exports of agricultural products will top 1981 shipments. FOREIGN AFFAIRS Current prospects do not indicate that any major breakthrough is in the offing with respect to the resolution of critical international problems. So it appears that 1982 will see more talk than genuine progress on issues involving the Middle East and Central America. The same is true with regutl to Soviet-America- n relation, particu- larly negotiations over strategic arms limitation and U.S. and Soviet military involvement in Europe. STOCK AND BOND OUTLOOK Except for takeover situations, 1981 was not a banner year for the stock market. After an early upthrust, stock prices again fell victim to unacceptable high interest rates and worries over the size of the federal budget deficit. Late months of the year saw some gradual revival of optimism, although investors' moves .frequently mirrored their uncertainty. Nevertheless, there was some response to the large supply of and to the undervalued stocks favorable implications of lower interest rates. To some extent, the stock market was also discounting the business up turn that was still several months distant. Allowing for spells of uneasiness, we feel that 1982 will be more beneficial to investors. With so many important industries long depressed, and with the Administration encouraging the upgrading of productive facilities, the projected uptrend in business may well generate more momentum than now seems possible. Stocks in virtually all categories and quality are trading at exceedingly reasonable multiplea of normal profitability and historical prices. So it is not difficult to visualize a burgeoning of investment interest. For the record, we forecast that the Dow Jones industrial average will fluctuate within a range of 1100 on the up side and 800 on the down side in 1982. Although the bond market haa already scored encouraging gains in recent months, nominal further up side progress can be expected early in the new year. HELP FROM ECONOMIC TAX RECOVERY ACT OF 1981 The recent damaging revelation by Budget Director David Stockman that he doubts the viability of the Administration's economic and fiscal proposals provided additional fuel for the arguments of opponents as the economy slid into recession. However, the potential benefits of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 have not been given adequate credit When all of the provisions of the legislation are fully operative, these benefits ahould stimulate the economy. Later, their cumulative effect may have an even more positive influence. Taken individually, the tax benefits are far from large, but their collective impact on private capital formation - over a period of time will be quite positive and widespread. for individual These incentives will replenish private help savings capital reservoirs: The tax exemption on income from the dividend reinvestment plans of qualified utility companies and the broader concept of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA) even though both these devices have annual limitations. Also, cash flow of corporations will be enhanced by the lower tax rates on profits and more schedules for liberal depreciation capital investments. The latter should of U.S. spur the modernization productive facilities, make ua more in foreign markets without compromising aualitv. - MORE SOBER EXPECTATIONS Early months of 1981 were filled with mounting anticipation that the new national leadership would revitalize the economy and restore some luster to America's role in international affairs. However, the actual scope and magnitude of the nation's problems have brought home to the public the fact that there are no easy solutions. Nevertheless, this does not mean that no progress will be made. As the initial public ebullience when the Reagan Administration took office wai probably unduly optimistic, so the current awing to disillusionment is undoubtedly excessive and somewhat myopic. No doubt there will be more give and take between the White House and Congress in 1982. Out of this may come some combination of additional spending cuts, deferral and down-sizin- g of selected outlays, and the raising of fresh revenues, if our expectation that the bulk of the recession occurred in the fourth quarter of 1981 turns out to be true, estimates of federal budget deficits in this and succeeding fiscal years may prove to be unrealistirallv high. 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There was some speculation about the third gate in congesting the track with too many teams at one time, but it proved the contrary with no problems with the gate or in the lanes. In fact, one race was so close with all three teams, the picture had to be consulted to pronounce the winner. Winners of last Saturdays futurity races were Dave Thompson, 20.69; A1 Wehrmann, 19.36; Jamie & Scott, 19.40; Pierce, Swasey, Mower, 19.70; Pollack Pondeross 2, 19.92; Double J Ranch & Monsen, 19.65; and Ranee Denton 92, 19.64. In the mature division winners were Ferrell Crazier, 23.84; Black Rust, 23.04; Double J Ranch, 24.45; Jenkins & May. 23.46; Hatch & Thacker, 24.14; Scott, Kier & Durham, 23.27; "Blacke Rust, 24.50; Ray Jensen,' 23.23; and Jenkins ft May, 24.11. This Saturday's races will begin at 1 p.m. with the following futurity involvement: Ron Swenson va Larry Jensen va Gary Goodrich; Pitchfork Ranch va Cecil Jenkins, Pollack Ponderose 91 vs Bob Kissling va Ranee Denton 91; A1 Woehrmann va Double J Ranch ft Monsen, Huxford, Richens; and De Mille va John E. Fausett va Ron Giles; Pollack Pondeross 92 va Jamie ft Scott Goodrich vs Pierce, Swasey ft Mower, Arb ft Grant va Critton ft Critton vs Lavoughn Gines; and Dave Thomson Hot N ESP B X Faces B mAA s stanitsa First Interstate Bank MamftarFWC Each Cvoctori account mxuraC to iOO.OOObttFDC |