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Show THE ZEPHYR JUNE 1990 PAGE 20 from the sierra club The Learning Report a shot in the arm.. .or in the foot...of wilderness opponents? by lance Christie George Learning was hired by local government associations In Arizona, Nevada, and Utah to do economic analyses against wilderness. The officials wanted support for their argument that adding public lands to the Wilderness Preservation System devastates local economies. Dr. Learning, an Independent consultant, used unexplained methods In the three states to estimate that wilderness would cost millions In lost direct and Indirect revenues to local economies. In Utah, Dr. Learning concluded that adding 5.1 million acres of BLM land to the Wilderness Preservation System would cost 13.2 billion dollars over the next 25 years. In Nevada, Dr. Learning estimated a loss of $51 million a year from declaring lands In Elko County as wilderness. Learning's loss estimates rest on two sets of assumptions: what economic activities would have happened In a area; and how these activities would be reduced or eliminated by wilderness designation. In graduate school, Dr. Learning and I were taught you are supposed to spell out those assumptions In a "methodology section, Justifying why you didnt make other assumptions which lead to different conclusions. I finally got my hands on a copy of the Utah study prepared by Dr. Learning on May 14. It doesn't have a methodology section. Dr. Reed, Chairman of the University of Nevada Economics Department, gives Learnings approach an "F". By going through the appendix for each Utah county, I figured out the assumptions that were made to come up with the calculations shown. For each Utah county, Dr. Learning used figures from the 1986 BLM Draft alternative for grazing, maximum Environmental Impact Statement for the He visitation. and mineral recreational assumed that 80 of all speculative values, possible mineral values would be recovered and sold In the next 25 years If the lands were not wilderness. He then assumed that wilderness would cause: (1) a grazing to Immediately cease; (2) no mineral values to be realized; and (3) all visitation to the lands to Immediately cease. These assumptions are unbelievable. I will first discuss why these assumptions are not credible, then present what to say about Dr. Learnings assumptions and approach. I economists have had university will conclude with my views on why local government associations have wasted public money on this nonsense. folk claim that federal regulations drive graziers out of Grazing: wilderness. This has not happened. If you look at the animal unit months (AUMs) of grazing permitted before and after wilderness designation In all the wilderness designated since 1918, you find no net loss (or gain). A lot of the original ranchers have sold their grazing permits to other ranchers on public land grazing allocations over time. Im sure a lot of the ranchers who quit business got a bang out of blaming government regulations for their decision, whether or not It was because they were bad businessmen or had a bad market for cattle. But their permits were not "retired - they were sold to someone else who has the same number of cows and sheep out there In the wilderness today as were there before, and are not discouraged by these alleged restrictions on regulations for wilderness grazing (which I cant find In the federal regulations for wilderness vs. OH. gas and minerals: The BLM's estimates of mineral reserves In wilderness lands were pure speculation. The Bangerter report, among others, correctly concluded that It Is unlikely there Is anything worth much In the proposed wilderness areas, and anything there Is In the most expensive place to get to. As Republican Grand County Commissioner David Knutson observed In his Interview with the Zeohvr In April, the areas which have not been Invaded and therefore still qualify as wilderness werent disturbed because "...It's very difficult and not very profitable, or It would have been done. I have some experience with the oil drilling business. My grandfather drilled oil and both uncles were petroleum engineers who ended up as vice presidents of wells, Standard Oil and Phillips Petroleum. I was, therefore, greatly amused by Dr. Learnings use of an 80 production estimate on Imaginary oil and gas reserves. Grandpa didnt get an 80 hit rate for wells drilled Into a proven oil field In Oklahoma and neither did anyone Dr. non-wlldem- ess "non-wlldem- ess Anti-wildern- ess non-wlldeme- ss.) I also note two things. First, no area In the 5.1 million acre wilderness proposal Is more than seven miles from a road. Second, the new computerized slant drilling able to link up small pools of oil sideways like balloons on a technology Is a wonder string. With current technology, It would be cheaper to drill under the wilderness areas from pads on the existing roads than to engage the expense of trying to put roads into them. Visitation: This Is the wildest assumption of all by Dr. Learning. The BLM assumed that visitation would Increase more to the proposed wilderness areas If they were declared wilderness than If they were not, based on cited studies. Dr. Learnings calculations assume that, starting at the exact moment Congress adds an area to the Wilderness Preservation System, no human being will enter the area again for 25 years! Need I say more? Dr. C. Arden Pope, Associate Professor of Economics, Brigham Young University, made observations on Learning's Utah report at the Governors Conference on Tourism and Recreation In April. The Graduate School of Business of the University of Utah found that, In 1987, total earnings by ranching, farming, forestry, fisheries, and minerals for the state was about $500 million. Dr. Learnings report says wilderness will produce a loss to Utah of approximately 26 times this total eamlngsl Understandably, Dr. Pope describes Learning's findings as "exaggerated and unrealistic. In Nevada, Dr. Mike Reed, Chairman of the Department of Economics of the University of Nevada at Reno, made the following observations on Dr. Learnings study there: "This Is a very odd piece of work. The study claims a fantastic negative Impact but does not show why that Impact would occur. Dr. Reed observed that the study would not be well received by government agencies because an economist, matter what his leanings for or against wilderness, Is going to have a field day with this report Just on Its merits. Economics Is a very conservative discipline, you have to prove what you assert The sad thing Is If anyone uses this report, their credibility will be destroyed. It seems to me that the Learning reports were cooked up to scare the public out of their moderate support for additional wilderness. As I Indicated last month, balanced university and governmental studies find that wilderness designation, by Itself, has little Immediate net economic Impact However, rural counties near designated wilderness grow twice as fast as those without wilderness because they are more attractive to tourists and new residents. As a moderate wilderness advocate, I hope the Sagebrush Rebels and the Utah Association of Counties take the Learning report to every agency of the federal government and swear by It As Dr. Reed observes, this will completely destroy their credibility. I sometimes wonder whether Dr. Learning secretly works for the environmentalists. We'd be hard put to come up with a dirty trick which would do as much damage to the wilderness opposition. (Check the effects of Learning's Arizona study on the Arizona BLM wilderness bill, where the sponsors of 2.7 million and 900,000 acre bills have agreed on 2.4 million acres.) As a taxpayer, I resent the county contributing $1,500 In county tax money to this fiasco. "-.- .no Lance Christie Is chairman of the Canyonlands Group of the Sierra Club and Secretary of the Board of Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance. For more Information about the local group of the Sierra Club, call Lance at 5. or Jack Campbell at 259-50- 95 259-511- else. 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