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Show I Reasonably Sui-e of Nomination? Hut now that the die is cast, and "Cactus Jack" is going out in dead earnest after the first prize, the political sharps are studying the situation from some new angles. It does not seem probable to those who have made the study of national politics and political figures fig-ures their chief concern for many years that the gentleman from Texas would make his bid for the nomination unless he felt reasonably reason-ably sure that he could get it. Under the rules of the party, adopted in 1936, it no longer takes a two-thirds majority to nominate, only a majority of one more than half the number of delegates, as in the Republican conventions. And it is not at all impossible, the students of Democratic Demo-cratic disaffection with the New Deal think, that Mr. Garner may already have up his sleeve enough assurances from party leaders who will control their state delegations dele-gations to give him that one-more-than-half. The alternative to such a conviction con-viction on Mr. Garner's part, in the opinion of the experts, is that he would prefer a wide-open party par-ty split and possibly even a "rump" convention in case Mr. Roosevelt should be re-nominated, to the re-election of the President. Presi-dent. It may sound incredible, but there are som!e experienced onlookers in Washington who believe be-lieve that the hatred of the New Deal by Mr. Garner and a considerable con-siderable body of Democrats whom he represents, is so great that they would prefer to see a Republican administration for the next four years. Neither the President nor the Vice-President is voicing his' personal antagonism, dispensable" and who hint among their friends that Mr. Roosevelt himself does not subscribe to any such un-Jeffersonian doctrine. There is no serious talk here of a "compromise" candidate, equally acceptable to the New Deal and the conservative wing of the Democratic party. The only man who has been so talked of is Secretary Sec-retary of State Cordell Hull. It is said on Mr. Hull's behalf, on what appears to be excellent authority, au-thority, that he doesn't .want such a nomination. The only thing Mr. Hull is greatly interested in is American foreign relations, and he is much more interested in his reciprocal trade agreements, of which he has negotiated 21 with as many nations, than he is with the impacts im-pacts and crises arising out of the war situation over seas. In the handling of foreign relations in respect to the war, it can truly be said that Mr. Roosevelt is his own Secretary of State. Worried Over Trade Agreements Secretary Hull is more than a little worried over the public reaction re-action to his trade agreements, which are being regarded by various vari-ous interests in this country as depriving de-priving them of the protection against foreign competition which they thought they had under the Snioot-Hawley tariff law. The most intense opposition comes from livestock men west of the Mississippi. The cattle and sheep men fear that the proposed letting down of the bars against Argentine beef and mutton, now under negotiation, will adversely affect their interests and Washington Wash-ington has been warned that they are on the warpath. The matter is bound to be an issue at this session, for the present law authorizing- such trade agreements expires by limitation lim-itation on June 12. Washington With the convening of the second sec-ond regular session of the 7 6th congress on January 3, the outstanding out-standing political issue of 1940 began to assume new shape, as senators and representatives met for the first time since the neutrality neu-trality session of last fall. That outstanding issue is the question whether Mr. Roosevelt desires and intends to run for a third term. Upon the final answer, an-swer, either by the president himself him-self or by the Democratic national convention when it meets, will hinge the fortunes of the nation for the next four years. If Mr. Roosevelt were to be renominated without a contest it is now the fixed opinion of most experienced observers here that he would be reelected. That would mean a continuation of the New Deal for another four years. Up to a few days ago it was the widespread belief that the decision deci-sion was entirely up to Mr. Roosevelt himself and to nobody else. But since Vice-President Garner has openly announced his own candidacy doubts are being cast upon the validity of that assumption. as-sumption. Mr. Garner is an old, experienced and decidedly "cagey" political manipulator. So long as it was merely his friends talking about him as a candidate it was possible to infer that he didn't want the nomination very seriously; seri-ously; at least not seriously enough to risk the wide open break in the Democratic party which his active pursuit of it would almost surely bring about. naturally. But the evidence that it exists and is getting stronger on Mr. Garner's part is apparent to those who have studied this phase of the national political scene with care. Roosevelt Encouraged The number of people who are pressing the idea that it is not only desirable but necessary for Mr. Roosevelt to be renominated and re-elected is growing, mainly in the official circles surrounding him. Ambassadors Kennedy and Davies, home on leave to report on European conditions, are the latest to join in the chorus. Some are saying that he is "indispensable" "indispen-sable" in the light of the European Euro-pean crisis. Yet among those close to the President there are some who do not share the idea that any man in a democracy is "in- |