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Show HUGHES LEADS IN CLOSE RACE FOR PRESIDENT New York Herald Poll Gives Republican Candi-didate Candi-didate Slight Plurality of Straw Votes. STEADY GAINS ARE NOTED FOR WILSON Opposition, However, Declares De-clares That Drift to the President Has Reached Its Height. Special to The Tribune. (Copyright, 1916, by the New York Herald company, all rights reserveQ.) NEAV YORK, Sunday, Oct. 22. The fifth installment, of the New York Herald's Her-ald's pollticaJ poll shows that the drift Is toward President Wilson in a practically lied race. Mr. Hughes's plurality is 3727, cut of a grand total of 346,064 straw votes taken by the New York HeraJd in thirty-six states. The Herald's introduction follows: "With election' day just fifteen' days ofT, the presidential tide Is drifting toward President Wilson. Mr. Hughes has made slight gaijis in slates which are normally Republican, but which are this year in doubt. The president has made gains Instates In-states which are ordinarily Republican, Republi-can, but which this year are not only in doubt, but are likely to decide th election. The states In which Mr. Hughes, in . the Herald's straw votes, has gains, j are New York (up state), Connecticut, Connecti-cut, Idaho, Massachusetts, Montana, South Dakota and New Jersey. The states where the president hajs made gains are Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan. Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Wis-consin. Neck-and-neck Race. As was first noted In the Hera-ld on September 24, It Is ,a neck-and-neck race for the presidency. Mr. . Hughes has had the lead because of the normal strength of the Republican Republi-can party and the amalgamation of the Progressives with the Republicans. Republi-cans. But he has been losing. He Is mucli weaker than his party. President Presi-dent Wilson has been gaining. He Is much stronger than his party. The two are now practically tied for the lead. Out of a total of 146,064 straw votes taken in thirty-six states, Mr. Hughes has a plurality of C727. Last week, out of a total of 107.403, he had a plurality of 4026. In this grand total, however, there are Incorporated 1S.S96 votes from California, This is out of proportion to the rest of the country. California Califor-nia is, from all indications now discernible, dis-cernible, the one Republican stronghold strong-hold which Is holding true to its standards. Therefore it would be hardly fair computation to include bo large a group of votes from there, any more than it would be to include the same number from a state like Tennessee or North Carolina, which are just as strongly Democratic, President Is Gaining. If the vote of California were cut down two-thirds, which would make It commensurate with the rest of the states, the closeness of the contest, as revealed by the total straw vote, would be more apparent. For instance, if just one-third of the 18,836 votes were Included the total tabulation would show a majority of 355 for the president. Inasmuch as a very large proportion of the test ballots are necessarily nec-essarily gathered in what are presumably pre-sumably Republican states, it is only fair that attention should be called to the California situation. There are indications in several parts of the country that branches of the railroad industry are turning sway from the president on the theory that they are being deluded by the Aadmson law. The Republicans are' conducting a most vigorous campaign to convince the railway workers that this Is true. They are making prog- i ress in some plane.", but fn others the 1 railway employees operatives and othersare almost a unit for the Democrats. The Republicans say that the almost al-most sensational drift of wage earners earn-ers to the Democratic party in the last month has reached its highest point and that the sailing back lias begun and will continue until election day. It is conceded by the Republicans that unless there is a swing back there is some Justification for Republican gloom. In addition to the lahor drift to the Democrats, there 1? in ail the Republican Repub-lican states a small, hut steady, drift ! of Republicans to the president on ! the contention that "he has kept us out of w r." There is, likewise, a j steady drift of Democrats of the bnsl- j ness world swinging Into line for Mr. Hughes-Trend Hughes-Trend of the Voting. A study of the percentage ta bles published in the Herald today shows the sweep of the tides which are running run-ning In the present campaign. When the Herald's first straw vo- tabulation tabula-tion was published the president was receiving 4h per cunt of the totai vote ; Continued on Pago Four.) J HUGHES LEADS RICE FOR THE PRESIDENCY (Continued from Pago One.) rast. He went the second week to 46. remained there for a week, and in the 1h flt compilation, given today, ho is receiving 47 per cut. On the other hand. Mr. Hughes In the first computation received per rent or' the tntal vote and is now receiving nO per (tent. In the comparative, shifts from party to party and from the Progressives the president makes pains also. The tot grain of Mr. Hughes from all sources from -Roosevelt and Wilson 1312 was. roughly, four to one over the president. Now It is Jess than three to one. The Hughes gain from ihe Roosevelt vote of 1012, in ttie first tabulation, was approximp telv four to one. Now it is about three to one. The percentages of gains in all tho states from the Progressive ranks show that In the Herald's llret computation Mr. Hughes was receiving receiv-ing 77 per cent and Mr. Wilson 21 per cent of the Progressive vote. Now Mr. Hughes is receiving 75 per cent and the president 23 per cent- of the same vote. The swing has unquestionahlv been 4 in the direction of tho president. |