Show N News s and nd Gossip of the Diamond u I BY HUGH S. S FULLERTON This 1 ls Is the tho first of ot a n. series of or do dope pc ai articles tides on the major len league uc races Annually for tor or th the last twelve years I Ihne have hn doped the major league teams with an Men idea of ot finding how they probably probably abl ably would finish In some somo seasons tho the task ask Is comparatively ol easy casy Last year 1 with the exception of oC the Philadelphia Nationals a team that was wrecked reeked and fell far and Washington which moved up sudden suddenly the tho clubs of both he tile American and National lea leagues ues finished fin fin- shed approximately where the they should have done This season the task of ot doping doping- the teams earns with an any chance of or accuracy is a stupendous s one otie Now given oJ a team of experienced players with a mann mann- gor jor of ot known ability and a smattering smatter smatter- I I ing ng of youngsters OU rs who can bo be figured Un on neu minor millor I and one who studies ba baseball closely I can an calculate with a fair degree e rec of accuracy ac ac- accuracy ac- ac curac curacy Just about what percentage of games that team should hould w win sIn In InThis V This season we face the thc task asIc of or predicting pre pro and dieting and trying Irving to figure On i on on seven so clubs with new managers on twelve of or sixteen clubs that will be shaken to to pieces before the playing season starts and ten of ot them that will start with practically new flOW lineups Under the circumstances I find it rath rather r easy casy to pick the first and second see sec ond nd clubs of ot each league league rather rather CS cas easy to o pick the In tho American American- and after that one Is dealing with so soman man many unknown and uncertain quantities quantities ties los that the ta task k seems an it 11 ty Sixteen Good Gulden Guides The probabilities of or the new managers managers mana mann gers ers handling their teams well Is in Itself a n big problem but fortunately every ery man Is a n known quantity And Andin In n this respect the owners have ha made madea a strong bid to Improve baseball all I Ido Ido Ido do not think that ever before there were sixteen as good managers in charge of or clubs In tr trying Irvine to figure the teams and the pr probabilities o of their success or 01 failure fail II- II ure tho the system I use i Is 18 rather I figure tho the comparative comparativo value of each position Jn In n defensive work then figure the fielding value of ot men menas menas as ae Individuals In their the value as as' as bat bat batters toTs as base runners and as ns inside men In this it Jt Is necessary to un understand understand under under- er- er stand the men themselves and know I whether or not the they will play good ball ballIn ballin In the club to which th they y are assigned For Instance knowing Mike Mitchell was disgusted with Cincinnati one would have been forced to reduce his value valno In lii every department If he re remaIned remained re- re a At Chicago o It is certain tam tain that during tho the earl early part of th the season cason at least he will play even evena a bit hit above c his speed Had Tinker and Evers remained on the same club I would have o cut at nt least eight points from both Now I figure them close to their best hest detracting a a. bit for tor tho the managerial strain which will hamper their Individual ual work In figuring catchers one calculates on the probable number of games the tho Individual will work and reduces this to the composite value For Instance Archer probably will vili catch eighty eight games game fifty Needham r I twelve twel and the tIle rest doubtful with the chances f favoring Archer In pitching one must figure tho the probable number of games each ach man will win win Walsh Walsh 46 46 Lange 22 22 White 16 Hi and so on Having calculated each mans man's value to th the team and reduced this thin to team teim values alues I make up another table showIng showIng show- show Ing InS tho the value of the thc players In each position In comparison with the value valee of ot men playing the same samo positions In other teams team Eventually E I red ce the composite and the comparative values down to tho the team values and calculate about what percentage of ot games game each team should win and where they ought to finish with that percentage Unknown Tho difficulty this season Is that one is working with ho NO man many unknown I quantities quantities that tho the managers managers man man- i a agers themselves will not decide until after the training season To overcome overcome over over- come como this I have ha picked tho the two t strongest candidates for each position In which there Is a a. contest for tor a a. regular rog- rog ular job averaged the rivals and used that as th the basis of position strength of ot the teams While it seems a wild goose s system stern yet ct last season I picked In January and aTIl February a dozen players ers who got ot the jobs and tho majority of these were selected from pure dope and in the face of announcements that other men would have the positions For Instance I picked Wolverton's New York team an and when the season seaon opened he lined up exactly as I predicted alth although two weeks earlier he had only onh one man In position There Is a lot of extremely promisIng promising promising promis promis- ing new now blood In the major leagues this spring but it H appears to me mo the best of or the tho new men were tried out outlast outlast last t fallIn tall fall In estimating the value cf ef the in individual individual individual in- in players please do not hung imag ine mo that I am merely stating m my Individual Individual Indi Indi- vidual opinion of the worth or weaknesses weaknesses weaknesses weak weak- nesses of ot these men Some of ot them themI I know at all about except from their records But tho the majority I Judge on tho reports of or managers scouts and players I would rather take the judgment of ot players as to the value of ot men the they have played with or against than my own or 01 anyone ci else so hIP rh K 4 For Instance I have seen een Heine Home Wagner Was play dozens of ball ban games ames I never neter considered him great The ma- ma of ot times I r watched him he ho did not play piny good oo ball or 01 show much form torm Yet the pa players ers o of the American league told me he was great reat explaining why hy and how he played It took two years for me to see It their wa way but 1 I had to take tako their word for It it and last list fall taU he proved It to m my complete tion The Tho players knew I didn't because because be be- cause causo I had happened to watch him on off orf days There Is Js another pla player r In the AmerIcan American American Amer Amer- ican league I once rat rated d as among the best I never doubted It One night I was wan sitting with three ball players and ana his name came up I expressed my mv opinion and they laughed They The told me mo wh why he was a bad bod player I watched him for weeks before I saw the tho two weaknesses 5 the they mentioned By B- accepting tho the Judgment ment of ot men down there on the field and of ot tho the scouts couts and managers one gets nearer nealor the truth He must discount the enthusiasm enthusiasm enthusiasm en en- of ot scouts and the press Ag agent agent- nt- nt In ing sense of or managers but mostly tho they will tell teU the truth Tho The other day I sat down with two men employees of different ball clubs and a list of ot all aU the now new players We Pc went over the men mon one by bv one and when W we finished I had a pretty fair Idea of how good these men wore were In Inthe Inthe inthe the minors I suppose some of them will accuse me of I knocking th them m In m my article next week I 1 will start the dope series with Ith the Cincinnati Reds |