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Show Czecft Refugee Confirms Crack in Iron Curtain By BAUKHAGE News Analyst and Commentator. WASHINGTON. Is the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Repub-lics cracking? That's an idea which is being toyed with by some wishful thinkers in Washington while others consider it one of the most dangerous playthings that ever got into the hands of unwary diplomats. In any case, the theory is worth examining. It appears to have been encouraged by some members of the little group of highly intelligent but also highly prejudiced people who form a constantly growing segment of Washington society the political refugees from the countries on the Soviet borders. One can, however, trust this group for certain basic facts. Recently, I learned one of these' facts which may surprise you. Of course, vnil recall W V that Soviet diplomacy diplo-macy always has explained what we call its aggression aa simply a desire to surround itself with what it describes de-scribes as "friendly" "friend-ly" countries. The refugees of whom I spoke are living proof that not all of the inhabitants of Russia's satellites satel-lites are friendly. most of them would have flown away." ' Many did anyway and Czech planes are turning up continually con-tinually in Western controlled areas of Europe. This occurs in civil aviation too because many of the pilots are former members of the air corps. But if the Red government cannot can-not trust the air corps, it has even less confidence in the Czech armored force. It has been necessary to immobilize it. But the greatest friction caused by partial communiza-tion communiza-tion is felt in the nation's economy. econ-omy. Everyone suffers, at least indirectly, because of this, but it can be seen most clearly among workers. Recent figures, fig-ures, which were made available avail-able to the public, indicate that there is a sharp falling-off in the man-hour productiveness. This could be attributed either to conscious sabotage or to t feeling of indifference and resentment re-sentment caused by reduced pay i.nd restrictions on the union labor movement. Before the Russians moved in, 75 to 80 per cent of Czechoslovakia's foreign trade was with non-Communist countries. This has been considerably reduced under pressure pres-sure from Russia, but even now some 60 to 70 per cent of her exports ex-ports go to Western Europe. Virtually the entire output of the great Skoda arms factory goes to Russia. The output is largely heavy artillery. Production of small arms for Russia also has been stepped up greatly. Chance of Revolt Termed Small Objective observers admit that there is small chance of an open revolt. That isn't the Czech method. They are great underground workers, work-ers, but they haven't the enthusiasm for blood-letting that people like the Yugoslavs have. If, however, the Soviets became involved in war, undoubtedly the Czechs would join heartily with those they consider their liberators. Those persons who predict a crack in the iron curtain base-part of their argument an on attitude among Czech leaders which is said to parallel that of Tito's supporters in Yugoslavia. That is this question ques-tion of nationalism. There have been recent reports from Europe that Czech Premier Gottwald, who always has been considered Moscow's Mos-cow's right-hand-man in Czechoslovakia, Czechoslo-vakia, is about to fall from Soviet grace for the same reason Tito fell. Gottwald is a lifelong Communist who was won over to the Marxian philosophy before he had an opportunity op-portunity to see it put into effect in his own country. He was an apt and willing student in Moscow, but he apparently cherished the illusion that his own country could accept the communist forrr. of government and still maintain its identity and its independence. The utter domination domin-ation by Russia has become not only distasteful to Gottwald but also to at least two other members of his cabinet, including the minister of justice. Gottwald is not the leader that Tito is and he probably can be brushed aside. But the viewpoint he has come to represent is pointed out as one of the weaknesses of the Russian system. There is one other fact which cannot be hidden from the eyes of any careful observer with some military knowledge of Czechoslovakia. That is that the military preparations in the country which the Russians have carried out are almost 100 per cent defensive. Apparently, the Russian fear of invasion from the West is greater than their desire or ability to prepare pre-pare for offensive warfare. As proof of this, my informant told me that although one of the scarcest consumer products in Czechoslovakia is paper, two of the biggest mills manufacturing it were limiting their output to blackout paper only. These are some of the reasons back of the theory which the people who believe in the old military axiom that you mustn't underestimate under-estimate the enemy say is dangerous. dan-gerous. I Britain's labor government of Att-lee Att-lee and Bevin declared the dockers' dock-ers' strike a national emergency, the first such proclamation since 1926 when Bevin himself was a strike leader. Proves how you can make the shoe fit, even when it's on the other foot. If you keep on your toes you're not likely to get down at the heel. BAUKHAGE However, most of us have been led to assume that at least the governments govern-ments and the controlling Communist Com-munist ininorities which support them have been able to produce a degree of mutual affection which satisfies the Kremlin. After Tito's action we wondered. What about the frontiers between these countries and Russia? . The answer came from an anti-Communist, anti-Communist, recently arrived from Czechoslovakia one of the many persons who are seeping out of that and other satellite countries every day. He was asked in my presence if the frontier between his country and Russia was open, in the sense that travel was permitted under the same conditions that obtain between normally friendly nations. The Czech laughed. He said: "The border between my country and Russia is no tighter than a dam would have to be to keep a drop of water from getting through." I have heard the Russian frontiers of other satellite nations similarly described. My informant also outlined other significant conditions in Czechoslovakia, Czechoslo-vakia, first reminding us of three Important facts: 1. Czechoslovakia is the most industrialized of all the satellites. satel-lites. 2. It Is also the most democratic demo-cratic in the realistio sense we view democracy. In other words the countrv is thoroughly Indoctrinated with the kind of democratic methods we know. This is due in part, of course, to the fact that so many of the men responsible for formation of the Czech republic spent many years in the United States and were made thoroughly familiar fa-miliar with American methods. It is also due to the fact that they had a long period of practical prac-tical experience in putting these methods into effect iD their own country. 3. The Czechs had a very high standard of living compared com-pared to the other satellites. These factors, taken together, made the Czechs particularly vulnerable vul-nerable to a Communist coup. When it came, because of their democratic demo-cratic training and high standard of living, the Czechs were particularly partic-ularly unhappy as an aftermath of Communist methods and Russian domination. In other words, the Czechs had more to lose than any ! of the other countries within the i Red orbit. j Greater Problems Are in Prospect Czechoslovakia is not yet thoroughly thor-oughly communized. There is still a certain amount of open criticism. There have been no wholesale purges. Undoubtedly, these will come, but when they do and herein those who believe that the Soviet position is weakening are encouragedthe encour-agedthe prospects are that the harder the Russians crack down, the greater problem Czechoslovakia will present to her Kremlin overseers. over-seers. Beforethe coup that ended in the death of Masaryk took place, it was estimated that perhaps 20 per cent of the people had been indoctri- nated with communism. Another 10 per cent were sympathetic, chiefly I from a theoretical point of view. ' My Czech informant declares that it can be T3liably estimated that the taste of practical communism which the people have had now has reduced that communist score to 15 per cent. ; He also confirmed the recent ! j statements about the army though :J he gave no figures made by Gen. Antonin Hasal who escaped to the i; American zone of Germany in the middle of July. Hasal said that 70 per cent of the enlisted men and i non-commissioned officers in the !. Czech army was anti-Communist. ; My informant put it this way: I "The air force, many of whose members fought with the R. A. F., : is almost entirely pro-Western. If I the Reds hadn't drained the tanks . of all the planes before the coup, I |
