| Show THE FACE BEHIND 1 THE NUMBERS Marc Young Contributing Writer With elections this November we have to deal with all of the many aspects of politicking One of the ways to understand this times often-times complex field is isby isby isby by the polls When it comes to polling in Utah one name stands out Dan Jones Although many people are probably familiar with the name as it often appears on radio television television television tele tele- vision and newsprint they're equally likely know little of theman theman the theman man himself This interview is an attempt to demystify this icon of the polling industry Hes He's more than just a ubiquitous name hes he's also a teacher consultant and political figure He is quick to dispel any notion that polling is simply calling and asking a few questions and tallying the score it is a scientific process with a lot lotof lotof of pressures a n t d rl rA gr e Prior to going to school in Idaho Jones planned on a military military military mili mili- tary career but he later decided on politics after teaching the constitution constitution constitution con con- to Hungarian Freedom Fighters At the University of Utah Professor Roy V. V Peal a a former fonner director of the United I I I States Cens Census s inspired him by asking his help in measuring the 1957 Mayoral election Still knowing little of such things he helped at the same time found his career At that time Jones said almost all surveys were done face to face Some of the surveys surveys surveys sur sur- veys were done by intercept you'd intercept people in the city But most of them you went door to door You would choose every fifth door and then draw the blocks at random on a map It was a true random sam- sam JI 4 u r wk jy f 2 YU NiNAb t c J J iw i w N t d t tx 0 i iWi v t 4 Wf P 4 fu 4 q y H 6 z r Y J t jt l W f o f t. t q W th t f. f tr JI Y q 4 i Y Pf X j t Q 1 19 1 Mi ii i f it i 7 J ff 0 0 it- it iti X i f J M if 1 L tk W p fu- fu ft t- t x 0 w. w 0 t v vi x ky mk m. w. w J 4 1 f f i i i v offin ik f 0 1 Y 0 Nv Di 3 t tY Y 1 r i T r. r o ij I Io t Y I ti 4 fR u 4 f tou ayi r k 7 t if I 4 t tr r t if f iK o J. J k J. J Bf v j r i 7 x y tt A I ItT tT Q x Y pd f 4 il v 1 O r F t N. N W f 1 N r SA l 1 f z 6 Cry lw 1 2 t Y 1 t I M 0 r tl jio ai i T w I i ai M Ii ft s 1 f z 0 Hk X Ph L. L 11 pie J. J Bracken won and so we were right In 1960 Jones covered the Kennedy and Nixon run for the Utah media and soon after he started to do exit polls Exit and other types of interviewing interviewing interviewing inter inter- viewing have had an influence on the political sphere But sin since e eJones Jones first began in the early polling has gone from a to door-to-door effort to one involving involving involving ing a more pragmatic approach When we had a tremendous rise in gasoline prices we couldn't couldn't couldn't could could- nt afford just to go out to do an interview What happened is everyone started getting telephones telephones telephones tele tele- phones recalls Jones Hence 90 percent of research today is done by telephone despite new barriers barri barri- ers like the do not call registry a parameter requiring surveyors to omit an interviewees name from the list at their request Said Jones Back when I started you'd have to make two calls to get one completed interview now it takes 3 to 5 calls C lUlU by oy uy Marc ware inure Young IDling Polling despite all the science science science ence isn't completely infallible In 1986 Jones had his most embarrassing moment as a poll poll- ster He had sent out the results of a poll which predicted Jim Hansen losing the election Although Hansen won and Jones was wrong he was still within the 5 percent margin of error Jones' Jones list of clientele is diverse He asserts that radio and television is a means of increasing increasing increasing ing visibility Polling is a viable e field for mathematics its it's the fastest changing profession in the world plus there are new technologies involved When I Afghanistan's President Hamid came to the US U.S. for a lecture to Afghanistan refugees he told of the need for statisticians to come comeback comeback comeback back to Afghanistan This proves how important polling isto is isto to a democracy Avoiding bias is a main concern concern concern con con- cern in the polling industry It isn't a time when you dazzle people with your VO A. A J lary it is a time to measure peoples' peoples attitudes towards a particular particular particular par par- issue Jones emphasized d. d You try to give them theman an absolute pure choice from both sides C t |
