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Show H NEW YEAR STARTS OFF BETTER. HI In hisreview of the business conditions for the first week of thc H new yearf Henry Clews, the New York financier, says : H ue firfit week of the new year showed a slight betterment in i , . ' both financial and commercial sentiment The improvement was T not so observable in any increase in the volume of business as in the recognition of the fact that, while copditions arc conflicting conflict-ing and in some respects unsatisfactory, corrective forces are steadily stead-ily at workt Hero and there arc signs of abatement in general unrest un-rest which is beginning to show itself in a more rational attitude in political circles toward large corporations. The only exception is a fresh outbreak of thc investigation mania in form of an inquiry regarding thc allcgod "money trust." While. trusts and the tariff aro still the first subjects of importance in the public mind, the chances of their being reasonably dealt with arc much better than three or sis months ago. No radical action on trusts is probable during the present session of congress, which will bo chiefly devoted to active and possibly somewhat heated discussion. There is, however, how-ever, some prospect of positive action on the tariff question, the greatest likelihood being a sharp cut in the steel schedules and the placing of iron ore on the free list As for cotton ind wool schedules, sched-ules, these also may be revised, but at the moment it looks as if the steel would comc first. Thc labor outlook is somewhat uncertain, but the sorry disclosures connected with thc McNamara cases 'havo had a sobering offect upon lnbor, and arc likely to result in thc selection selec-tion of a higher type of leadership in tho future, a result which would benefit labor and capital alike by moderating class warfare and facilitating settlement of the differences between employer and employe b discussion and not force. The issues of the Presidential campaign arc now sharply defined, and their outcome can already be somewhat foreseen. Public sentiment is pretty definitely formed, and the chief doubt regarding the future is that of personality con-corning con-corning the different candidates. This, of course, may remain unsettled un-settled until the conventions next summer, although it is not impossible im-possible that the successful nominees will be correctly guessed at in advance. - On the Stock Exchange there has been a quiet and fairly hopeful hope-ful feeling. Thc investment demand, however, experienced in January Jan-uary has not thus far made itself felt with the usual freedom. Bonds are disappointingly dull. This may bo explained by the general feeling of caution among investors and the unwillingness of largo buyers to take hold until conditions become more settled. Another factor is insistence by the holders of capital for better returns. Lpw interest-bearing mortgages and bonds are slow to sell in spite of safety. This desire for safety in investments is illustrated by the phenomenally large output of bonds during 1911. Thc actual output out-put of new securities last year is now estimated at about $1,730,000.-000, $1,730,000.-000, including approximately $990,000,000 bonds, over $390,000,000t short-term notes and only about $352,000,000 in stocks. This tremendous tre-mendous preponderance of bond issues over stocks is highly significant. signifi-cant. It means not only n large increase in the fixed obligations for railroads and industrial concerns, but also shows the strong preference pref-erence of investors for bonds in order to escape the uncertainty attending at-tending ownership of stocks. Recently the new issues announced have been comparatively small, but it is understood that important issues arc still pending and awaiting favorable conditions. In this connection it is interesting to observe that somo of our financial institutions arc contemplating the issue of notes and mortgages bear ing more liberal rates of interest than have previously been custom-ar custom-ar In other words, they are willing to raise their bids for new capital. Undc present conditions it would be bettor for our railroads rail-roads to issue short-term notes than bonds. Investors would take thc notes more readily than bonds and thc roads would avc'l further fur-ther piling up of long date fixed obligations. |