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Show I THE FUTURE OF THE I AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY H So much lias been written relatlvo to tho devolopmont of tliu motor car industry and so many proiiheslcB 1 lmvo been ventured -without proper consideration of vital and controll- lng factors, that n clear and stmplo analysis of tho subject may serve to 1 dissipate much of tho unfounded conjecture. Tho automobile markot Is divided H Into two broad fields. First, tho rur- H al class, which Includes all persons H engaged In farming and others In H various businesses who Ilvo In towns H of less than GOO population. Second H tho urban class,, which comprises all H people In any but farming pursuits, H who live in towns of COO or more H population. H In tho rural or farming market j ! there are 6,500,000 families. Ono H i million of theso now own motor cars H and one and ono half millions aro H poor, Illiterate for negroes, who for H tho purposo of this study may bo ox- H eluded from tho prospectlvo buying H j class. There remain, then, 1,000,- H 000 farm families who aro posslblo H automobllo buyers. H In tho urban class, covered by 11,- B 000 towns and cities of more than H COO population, thorc aro about C,- H 000,000 homo owners, of which B number only 2,000,000 now own M cars. Accordingly, thoro remain 3,- Hj 000,000 prospectlvo buyers In this H class, or a total unsold markot In M both rural anil urban classes of 7,- H 000,000 posslblo automobllo buyers. H The accoptud avcrugo life of nn H automobllo is about flvo years In tho H hands of original owners, and as tho M man who onco owns a car will not m thereafter bo without ono, wo must p include tho record markot, which Hl in the calendar yoar of 1017 will be H about 600,000, this being about 20 H per cent of tho 3,000,000 now in H ' the year 1017, therefore, tho LB. automobile business will faco a mar- Bjb Dosslblo bo built In the coming year, leaving a posslblo oxcess market of 600,000 buyers at tho beginning of 1018. Theso figures aro decidedly conservative con-servative becauso they tako no consideration con-sideration of (1) any export outlet, (2) tho people who have or will lmvo two or nioro machines, (3) Increased In-creased population, (4) Incroased prosperity, (G) a million or more town and city families who do not own tho homes In which thoy live, but are well able to buy and maintain main-tain a motor car, (6) the business hoiiBcs, retail and wholesale merchants mer-chants who use thousands of roadsters road-sters for salesmen, and many thousands thous-ands more of delivery cars (regular automobllo chassis with commercial body), (7) taxlcabs and other cars for public hire. An Important Knct. An Important and noteworthy fact Is vouched for by tho editorial department de-partment of Automobllo Topics, a well-known trado authority, which has been making a careful analysis of tho comparative naturo of automobllo auto-mobllo service Thoy stato that of tho 3,000,000 motor cars of all kinds In Borvlco In tho United States today they can conservatively say from tho Investigation that over ono half of tho mllcago of tho 3,000,000 cars Is used for business purposes. Literally, Liter-ally, this means that of tho 3,000,-000 3,000,-000 automobiles running In this country today, one-half, or 1,500,000 aro used for business purposes. This leaves pi iv ono and a half million In uso for pleasuro or social transportation trans-portation purposes. In considering the 1, COO, 000 nu-tomohlles nu-tomohlles In uso today, which may bo legitimately' classed as "pleasure cars,1' an Important fact should bo borno In mind, namely, tho so-called pleasuro car of today has a distinct economic use, it being only reasonable reason-able to deduco that tho tlmo and monoy spent in motoring for pleasure plea-sure or social Intercourse almost In- other form of expenditure of less actual economic value. Motoring Is a pleasure that makes for broader vision, saner and moro helpful diversions, di-versions, and a moro sympathetic social llfo. A nation without Its sano pleasures ,1s hopeless. Therefore, it Is far from logical to consider tho so-called so-called pleasuro car as an added luxury. lux-ury. If production IncroaBes at tho av-erago av-erago rata maintained for tho past flvo years which is unlikely, duo to greater manufacturing problems and to Inability of tho selling and distribute distri-bute branches to keop pace with greatly augmented manufacturing volumo tho point of saturation will not bo reached for flvo, six, or even soven years. And somo of tho leaders lead-ers In the Industry predict that it will be a matter of ten or twelve years. All signs point to a continued development de-velopment for several years to como for JUBt how long It Is dlfflcult to say, but as In many other new fields, limitations and curtailment of expansion ex-pansion arbitrarily predicted, are morcly evidence of a shortened vision vi-sion or unfamillarlty with all tho facts. It Is truo that materials and labor aro moro expenslvo and Increasingly Increasing-ly hard to secure This condition Is not serious, nor Is it likely to bo. Tho makors of medium and high priced cars overcome tho difficulty by an advanco In their selling prices. Tho manufacturers of low-priced cars build In much greater quantities, quanti-ties, nro protected by contracts until tho end of tho automobile year, July 1917, and aro ablo to absorb addltl- jonal expense by spreading It out ov-' ov-' cr a great number of units and by Increasing tholr manufacturing efficiency. |