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Show distant when we will notice real improvement. im-provement. Some of the pessimistic prophets declare, however, that we are now undergoing something new, and that the end of civilization is at hand. But a great many men who have studied the situation do not agree with the pessimists. For example, Dr. Von Kuehlmann, former foreign minister of Germany, says, that judging by the past we can now be assured that recovery is on the way. The first signs of it, he thinks, will appear in 1933, and the bottom has already been reached. Dr. Von Kuehlmann bases his belief on the study of depressions de-pressions of the past and his observations observa-tions are decidedly interesting. Here is what he says: "Something like a more confident feeling exists now in this world. People Peo-ple have new hope, and even those who up to now were steeped in pessimism pes-simism and black despair begin to perceive dimly the silver lining of the clouds. It is like the coming of spring and sunnier days. The last 150 years of history have witnessed three wars which can be called great wars the Napoleonic Wars, the American (Civil) War, and the World War. History teaches us that after all these wars came a period per-iod of what we may call sham prosperity, pros-perity, which led to a boom of mad overspeculation. After the collapse of this came a period of deep depression with all the symptons we are only too familiar with. "If we assume that what happened after other great wars may repeat itself, it-self, we come to the conclusion that the coming year, 1933, will bring the first symptoms of recovery and a return re-turn to more normal business conditions. condi-tions. Even the year 1932, which is j now nearing its end, has considerably contributed to laying the foundation for happier times." At any rate, whether 1933 marks the real turning point or not, there is something more logical in the German Ger-man expert's opinions, based on a study of history, than on the bare predictions of the pessimists to the effect that civilization is doomed. Surely there is more wealth in the world than there was in the times of 'he depressions noted above. Wo have the experience of past ages to go by, and we have the modern means of producing wealth, unknown a few years ago. Many assert that our ultra modern machinery is ruining society by displacing hand labor, but the :::inw thing was said when the harvester har-vester alul the steam engine were invented. in-vented. New fields of effort are constantly con-stantly being opened up and new com-' forts and conveniences m:ide possible for the masses. Some of tin-so days the world will catch its striil again and we will forget all about, ot:,- present pres-ent fears. Let us hope, however, that we will never forget the lessons we' have learned in the depression. J LIGHT AHEAD. Too often in the moments of dis-courgement dis-courgement which come to all of us in these days of depression we are prone to regard the present situation of the world as something more desperate, des-perate, in an economic way than humanity hu-manity h'as ever known. Yet if we will only stop to reflect for a moment we can see that this is not true. The winter of 1932-33, distressing as it is, cannot hold a candle in comparison to the winter at Valley Forge. We thought we were bad off in 1930 but would be glad now to get back to the condition of business we enjoyed then. The year 1931 was worse than 1930 and we thought the end of the world was at hand. Now we know that 1932 was destined to be below 1931. Hut there is some encouragement in the fact that judging by most of the indices, in-dices, we seem to have struck bottom. In 1932 we have liquidated the European Euro-pean troubles of 1931 which drove so many countries off the gold standard, stan-dard, and caused the raid on our own gold reserves, and the chances are brighter now that the time is not far |