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Show MINING AND FINANCIAL A certain amount of skepticism is not unbecoming unbe-coming to a forecaster of events in the mining world. We have read enough and more than enough in the mining journals of the need of confidence. con-fidence. A short essay on the benefits of skepticism skepti-cism is therefore timely. A chronic attitude of unbelief and suspicion is not to be commended. The old saying that "one should not believe anything any-thing he hears and not more than half he sees" is an exaggeration. The man who believes nothing noth-ing is more frequently deceived than the man who believes everything. Nice discrimination is nowhere more necessary than in this matter of credence. There is no better test than the test of reasonableness. We should not believe a thing because someone says it is so, but because it is inherently logical and probable. A promise, sometimes, may be carried out although in apparent appar-ent conflict with the logic of a situation, but nine times out of ten the promise that would disarrange dis-arrange the natural sequence of facts is made with crossed fingers. Patrons of the stock market as a rule fluctuate fluctu-ate between the extreme of lamblike confidence and irrational negation. One day they deny everything ev-erything and the next they fall for anything. Almost Al-most everyone seems to have fallen for the intimation inti-mation in the annual report of the Giroux directors direc-tors that they are going to build a smelter near Ely for the treatment of the Giroux ores. Mind you, the directors do not say they are going to build a smelter! The report states merely that they are developing their ground to determine the quantity of ore that is available for a smelter. Furthermore, a reasonable interpretation of known facts does not indicate a smelter at the Giroux. It is surprising that the alleged plan has been accepted by the public with so little questioning. ques-tioning. The theory that the Giroux company intended in-tended to ship to the International smelter at Tooele, possibly by way of railroad through Deep Creek, was not based upon any specific utterance ut-terance from official sources, but upon its obvious ob-vious advantages to the owners of the International Interna-tional smelter, the Giroux mine and the Deep Creek properties. So reasonble is the theory and H so obvious the advantages that ,it should take H more than the suggestion of a different course to H drive skepticism from its job. H The tendency of the times is all away from H small, isolated smelting plants. Operating ex- H penses are lower and results more satisfactory at H the big centers and there is an overwhelming H VV &b1toASHHHII1 .HUH V i I.!zJNHeHHHHB9HHDHB HHHI Ha JT '!r9MBHHHMJHSRMHI BI Ffwi. SRBHbBhK M WKk HHHI M &.-. T llfBHHHHl " WwJt ! "t' jvie wflflttlflE fesk. 1 1 Hh Phttt bj Undtrwnd ttf Undtrivtcd, N. T. HHJ " SHERIFF BOB " CHANLER fl The unlucky husband of Lina Cavalieri. the fair H and fickle songbird. The photograph looks as H though It might have been taken during H the recent unpleasantness. HHJ advantage in the ability of the big smelter to M make up its furnace charges from a great variety M of ores. The little plant is always getting too much of one kind, and not enough of another fl kind of ore. Even when a locality seemingly M supplies just the right proportion of oxides, sul- phides, iron and silica, there is no telling how soon the percentages may be reversed in the M course of development. Only under rare condi- M tions can a small smelter compete with a big M HI one. Given direct railroad connection with Tooele H the Giroux can undoubtedly get its ore treated H ' at the International for much less money than at H a plant of its own. At the same time the In-Hf In-Hf ternational needs the custom of the Giroux in H the same degree that the Giroux needs the ser-I1 ser-I1 vices of the International. The greater the va-' va-' riety of its ores the more successfully can the big smelter bed its furnaces and extract the H metals. It was planned with a view to indellnite H expansion and its entire policy is at variance I with the division of its potential patronage. The controlling factors In the Giroux and the Interna-H Interna-H tlonal are so nearly identical that each is bound B to weigh the interests of the other. H I Of course, there is that hundred and eighty I odd miles of mountain and valley between Ely H and Tooele to be considered and the difficulties H of transportation, in connection with the difficulty I of financing new railroads, is a flaw in the rea- H sonableness of the Giroux-International alliance, but this flaw is not nearly so serious as the big H punctures in the independent smelter scheme. A theory that engages the attention of the market just now is the hypothesis that the Cedar-H Cedar-H Talisman mine in Beaver county is going to be- gin dividends before long. Owing either to a H surplus of confidence or the scarcity and conse-H conse-H quent easy manipulation of Cedar stock the share H has advanced about 75 per cent in price in the H, last two weeks. One cannot say without injust-Hl injust-Hl ice to the mining company that the stock is not worth all it is selling for at present. But a I little cogitation will convince anyone that the H buyer who pays his 16 or 17 or 20 cents a share H' with the expectation of hiring a dray and bring-HfO bring-HfO ing home his dividends next morning, needs a H small innoculation of skepticism. The Cedar-Hf Cedar-Hf Talisman has one million shares of stock and B must earn 10,000 over and above all expenses to j pay a legitimate dividend of one cent a share. H To pay the kind of dividends that are suggested Hf as an inducement for the purchase of the stock HL anywhere between 25 cents and a dollar, the Wt mine would have to earn from ?30,000 to $40,000 H a month net. Before this is even a possibility H ore must be opened in much larger quantities H than are visible now. Still, there is not much to be said for the intelligence of the person who looks for a three or four cent monthly return on a twenty-cent investment. If he mistakes the stock exchange for a loan shark's office he probably prob-ably has coming to him all that he does not get. There is a charce for confidence as well as for skepticism in the reports that the United States company is negotiating for the Grand Central at Tintic. It is admitted that the experts for the United States have been looking at the Grand Central ore bodies and that the Centennial-Eureka Centennial-Eureka veins are quite likely to be making into Grand Central ground. Grand Central stock, it is plain enough, is at a price level that invites the purchase of tne control, vieneral manager Loose says there no deal on with the United States. In fact, th'.e are numerous circumstances which make the story of a prospective sale sound reasonable. rea-sonable. The Grand Central management has had resources for more than a year, which it believed be-lieved to be connected with the great mineral deposits de-posits of the Centennial-Eureka. It had no way of proving the correctness of its surmise. The Centennial, on the other hand, can make a pretty close guess as to the relationship between the ore bodies. That is one reason why the parent company of the Centennial may be negotiating for the Grand Central instead of the Grand" Central Cen-tral negotiating for the Centennial-Eureka. |