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Show Page 8 The Ogden Valley news Volume XIX Issue XX November 15, 2011 Weber County’s Small Businesses Would Benefit from Stronger U.S. Economic Growth Highlights • The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 118.5 in October 2011, down from a revised 119.2 in September 2011 • Utah’s unemployment rate was estimated at 7.4% in the latest month, down from the 7.6% rate of the prior month. Total Utah employment grew by an estimated 33,300 jobs during the past 12 months • Weber County gained 500 jobs (0.5%) in the latest 12-month period. Joblessness registered 8.2%, down from the 8.6% unemployment rate one year ago • Improving U.S. economic performance in 2011’s third quarter, should it continue, would provide a stronger foundation for growth within Utah’s small business sector • The U.S. economy saw a gain of 80,000 net new jobs during October, slightly below expectations. However, estimated job gains of the two prior months were revised higher by 102,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 9.0%, versus 9.1% in the three prior months U.S. Economic Growth Improves American economic growth improved during 2011’s July-September quarter, especially when compared to the anemic economic performance during the year’s first half. Similar to slightly softer economic growth seems on tap in coming quarters, with plenty of obstacles to be faced along the way. U.S. GDP, the most inclusive of all measures of economic activity taking place on U.S. soil, grew at a 2.5% real (after inflation) annual rate during the third quarter, matching the consensus view of forecasting economists. The 2.5% growth pace greatly exceeded the 1.3% real annual growth pace of the second quarter and the pathetic 0.4% growth pace during the January-March 2011 quarter. Even as economic growth has improved, it still lags the 3.0% - 4.0% real annual growth pace needed to bring the nation’s unemployment rate down from the 9.0% average of the past three years. Given the obstacles (or headwinds) faced within the economy, including the painful reductions of recent years in home prices, anxiety about the European debt crisis, distaste for higher taxes for those who invest and create jobs, and our domestic frustration about government spending out of control, such stronger growth seems unlikely in coming quarters. However, the new data has, for the moment, dampened the worst case views of those economic forecasters calling for an imminent return to recession. The American consumer spent money more aggressively during the third quarter, with personal consumption rising at a 2.4% rate. Such growth rose at a miniscule 0.7% pace in the prior quarter. American businesses also stepped up their spending pace during the third quarter, with investment in equipment and software rising at a 17.4% annual rate, the strongest pace in a year. The American economy finally exceeded the real pre-recession peak of total economic output during 2007’s final quarter. It took 15 quarters to offset the 5.1% decline in output during the Great Recession. This was three times the average number of quarters needed to reach the prior peak in other post-WWII recessions. The level of U.S. economic performance is a component of the Utah Small Business Index, as are the performances of the global and Intermountain economies. Stronger performance of any of the three pushes the Index higher. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 118.5 in October 2011, down from a revised 119.2 in September 2011. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A lower Index number is associated with less favorable business conditions for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index includes revisions to various historical and new forecast components as they become available. Utah Employment - The Utah unemployment rate—the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah—was estimated at 7.4% in the latest month, down from the prior month’s 7.6% rate. The 7.4% rate compares to a similar 7.6% rate during the same month one year ago. A lower Utah unemployment rate is a negative contributor to the Index as it implies decreased access to Utah labor. Other associated factors typically tied to a lower unemployment rate, such as greater job creation, greater income gains, and stronger retail sales pull the Index higher. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 7.7% during 2010, 7.1% during 2009, 3.7% in 2008, 2.7% in 2007, and 2.9% in 2006. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 5.0% during the 2001 to 2005 period, and an average 3.5% rate between 1995 and 2000. Total Utah employment grew by an estimated 33,300 jobs (up 2.8%) over the past 12 months. This increase compares to a revised gain of 33,400 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. Utah lost 7,800 jobs in 2010, lost 63,700 jobs in 2009, lost 800 jobs in 2008, and added 49,600 jobs in 2007, 55,700 jobs in 2006, 43,700 jobs in 2005, and 30,200 jobs in 2004. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period and a net loss of 1,300 jobs in 2001 through 2003. More recently, job gains leading to greater income creation and stronger retail spending, have a positive impact upon Utah’s small businesses…and therefore, the Index. Local Performance • Cache County employment grew by 1,100 jobs (2.1%) in the latest 12-month period. The area’s jobless rate was 5.4%, down from the 5.9% rate of one year ago. • Weber County gained 500 jobs (0.5%) in the latest 12-month period. Joblessness registered 8.2%, down from the 8.6% unemployment rate one year ago. • Davis County had payrolls increase by 5,200 jobs (5.2%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 6.8% in the latest month, unchanged from 7.1% one year ago. • Salt Lake County employment rose by 15,200 jobs (2.6%) over the year. The county’s unemployment rate was 7.1% in the latest month, down from 7.4% last year. • Utah County employment rose by 8,600 jobs (4.8%) over the last 12 months. The area’s jobless rate was 7.4%, down from the 8.0% rate of one year ago. • Washington County payrolls decreased by 500 jobs (-1.0%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 9.3% in the latest month, down from 9.9% one year ago. National Employment - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a gain of 80,000 net new jobs in October 2011, weaker than the 100,000 net gain expected. However, estimated job gains of the two prior months were revised higher by 102,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 9.0% in October, versus the 9.1% rate of the three prior months. The current 9.0% jobless rate compares to the 9.7% rate of one year ago, the 10.1% rate of October 2009, and the 6.6% rate during October 2008. Goods producing employment fell by 10,000 jobs in October, with a loss in construc- tion (down 20,000 jobs) larger than the rise in manufacturing (up 5,000 jobs) and mining & logging employment (up 5,000 jobs). Privatesector service providing employment rose by 114,000 jobs in October, led by gains in professional and business services (up 32,000 jobs) and education and health services (up 28,000 jobs). Overall government employment fell by another 24,000 jobs during the month. The U.S. economy suffered a net decline of 3.6 million jobs during 2008, the worst year since 1945. The net loss of 5.1 million jobs during 2009 easily surpassed the 2008 total. The American economy added 940,000 net new jobs during 2010, or 78,000 per month. Gainsto-date during 2011 have totaled 1,256,000 jobs, or 126,000 per month. Roughly 130,000 net new jobs need to be added monthly just to meet the needs of a rising population, and just to keep the unemployment rate stable. Consistently stronger gains are necessary to lead the unemployment rate lower. The November 2011 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released on December 6, 2011. Zions has been serving the communities of Utah for more than 135 years. Additional information is available at <www.zionsbank.com> A Fatal Mix—Daylight Savings Time and Deer It’s nice to have extra daylight in the morning. But if you’re driving in deer country, Daylight Savings Time can be a mixed blessing later in the day. As soon as the sun goes down, deer get active and start to feed. Having the sun go down one hour earlier in the evening, when many people are coming home from work or leaving home for the night’s activities, can spell trouble. More information about the number of deer that are killed on Utah’s roads will be gained through studies the Division of Wildlife Resources is conducting in cooperation with Utah State University. “The studies will give us better numbers,” says Anis Aoude, big game coordinator for the DWR. “But even without solid numbers, we know a lot of deer are killed on Utah’s roads every year.” And it’s not just the total number of deer that are killed that’s concerning. Utah’s deer herds contain mostly does and fawns. Unlike the hunting season—when mostly bucks are taken—does and fawns are the deer that are usually killed by vehicles. “Losing a buck isn’t as critical to the overall health of the deer herds,” Aoude says. “One buck will breed several does. But every doe that’s lost means fewer fawns in the state’s herds the next summer. Fortunately, you can do several things to reduce the chance that you hit a deer while driving: • While you can hit a deer any time of the day, be especially careful when it’s dark. Remember, deer feed actively as soon as the sun goes down. • Slow down, especially if you’re driving at night. • Instead of looking straight ahead, be aware of what’s happening on the edge of the road. That’s the area from which a deer can spring into your path. • Remember that deer usually travel with other deer. If you see one deer, it’s likely other deer are just off the edge of the road. Any of those deer could spring into your path. • If you see a deer in the road and realize you can’t slow down enough to avoid hitting it, don’t swerve. If you swerve at high speed, you might lose control of your vehicle and go off the road. Hitting a deer is better than rolling your car. • If cars aren’t approaching you from the opposite direction, keep your high beams on as much as possible. Having your high beams on will help you see deer at a greater distance. • If you’re traveling on a multi-lane road, travel in the inside lane instead of the outside lane. Traveling in the inside lane will put more distance between you and deer along the side of the road. |