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Show The Ogden Valley news Volume XV Issue XI Page 13 May 15, 2008 U.S. Economic Growth During 2008’s First Quarter A Good Sign for Weber County’s Small Businesses Highlights • Weber County experienced job growth of 2,200 jobs (2.4%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 4.0%, up from the 3.1% unemployment rate one year ago. • The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 92.1 in April 2008, down from a revised 92.5 in March 2008. • Utah's unemployment rate was estimated at 3.3% in the latest month, up from the prior month's 3.0% rate. Total Utah employment is up an estimated 26,200 jobs during the past 12 months. • Stronger-than-expected U.S economic growth during 2008's first quarter is a positive sign for Utah's small business sector. • The U.S. economy lost an estimated 20,000 net jobs in April, a much smaller loss than feared. The U.S. unemployment rate declined slightly to 5.0% Recession Debate U.S. economic growth during 2008’s first quarter registered a 0.6% real (inflation adjusted) annual rate, slightly stronger than economist expectations. The modest 0.6% growth pace matched that of the prior quarter. The fact that the U.S. economy actually grew during the January to March period raises uncertainty levels again as to whether the U.S. economy is in a recession. Estimates for current quarter performance range from a 1.0% annual real rate of decline to a 1.0% real annualized gain, with most estimates around a flat growth pace. Most estimates for 2008’s second half see positive growth. The modest first quarter U.S. economic growth pace also reduces fears of a deep and prolonged U.S. recession. The simplistic definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. U.S. recessions are formally measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research, typically 6-10 months after the fact. The first quarter’s meager growth pace was led by rising exports. Consumer spending was weak, while real estate investment was very soft. Exports grew at a 5.5% annual pace during the quarter. Consumer spending, which represents more than 70% of the U.S. economy, grew at a 1.0% annual rate, the weakest growth since 2001. Residential construction spending fell at an annual rate of 27.0%, the largest rate of decline since 1981. The performance of the U.S. economy is a component of the Small Business Index for Utah. U.S. economic strength or weakness gives an indication as to external developments that impact the Utah economy, with U.S. economic growth having a positive influence on Utah small business performance. A seventh interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on April 30 will also positively impact the Utah economy. The Small Business Index assumes that the majority of Utah’s small businesses are net borrowers. Hence, their financing costs will decline again. Utah Employment The Utah unemployment rate-the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah-was estimated at 3.3% in the latest month, up from the 3.0% rate of the prior month. The 3.3% rate compares to a 2.4% rate during the same month one year ago. A higher Utah unemployment rate is a positive contributor to the Index as it implies increased access to Utah labor. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 2.7% in 2007, 3.0% in 2006, 4.2% in 2005, and 4.9% during the 2000-2004 period. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 3.5% between 1995 and 1999. Total Utah employment rose by an estimated 26,200 jobs (up 2.1%) over the past 12 months. This rise compares to a gain of 28,800 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. The 2.1% rise still ranks as one of the strongest job growth rates in the nation. HISTORICAL cont. from page 11 stationed in England and on D-Day, they loaded all these soldiers on ships and they went across the English Channel and landed in Europe to take over Europe again and fight the German army. As we flew over, we looked down over the English Channel. We could see thousands of ships on the ocean carrying men across the English Channel to invade Europe. As we went over to Europe and dropped our bombs, we had to make a turn and fly a certain way back to England. If we turned right around and came back the same way we had come, we would have been shot down by our own airplanes. We had to make sure we went the right direction. The night before D-Day, our airplanes were all painted with colored stripes all around the plane so we could not be mistaken for German fighters. We flew many bombing missions after D-Day. When my tour of duty was completed, I had flown 28 bombing missions. I was sent back to America. I was assigned to another crew and bomber. We started to train on this plane and were about ready to be sent over to the Pacific war theater to fight the Japanese when the atomic bomb was dropped on Japan and the war ended. Not long after this, I was discharged and returned home after three years of army air force duty. The army service was a great experience and I was glad to serve my country (the best country in the world), but I was glad to be home to my parents, brothers and sisters, and friends. you were starting at 25,000 feet and you only had one engine to fly on, and the other three were gone, if you glided the plane at a very slow and shallow angle, you could almost get back to England with only one engine running. Another mission I remember was when we got up at two o’clock in the morning. We went to our breakfast and briefing room. They had a big board and it showed all of Europe and part of Russia. When we got into this briefing room, they had a string running from England to Russia that represented about 4,000 miles, and we had to fly that far that day. For 11 hours we were standing watching for German fighters to shoot at if they came close to us. We dropped our bombs on an oil field. After we dropped our bombs, we were supposed to go to a Russian airfield and pick up another load of bombs. We were then supposed to go back to Germany and drop those bombs and then fly to Italy, pick up more bombs and bomb other targets in Germany. After that, we were to return to England. We got to Russia and lined up our planes on the ground. That night, the German fighters came over and bombed and strafed our planes. It destroyed our plane and many others. A transit plane took us back to England. We flew south to Egypt, across Africa, and back to England. D-Day was the day the allied forces invaded Europe. All of our forces were Business Index The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 92.1 during April 2008, down from a revised 92.5 during March 2008. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A lower Index number is associated with less favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index includes revisions to various historical and new forecast components as they become available. Utah added 47,800 jobs in 2007, 55,700 jobs in 2006, 43,700 jobs in 2005, and 30,200 jobs in 2004. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period and a net loss of 1,300 jobs in 2001 through 2003. More recently, weaker job gains, leading to lesser income creation and softer retail spending, have a negative impact upon Utah’s small businesses...and therefore, the Index. Local Performance Weber County experienced job growth of 2,200 jobs (2.4%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 4.0%, up from the 3.1% unemployment rate one year ago. Utah County employment grew by 4,000 jobs (2.1%) over the last 12 months. The area’s jobless rate was 3.1%, up from the 2.5% rate of one year ago. Cache County employment grew by 1,100 jobs (2.3%) in the latest 12-month period. The area’s jobless rate was 2.5%, up from the 2.0% rate of one year ago. Davis County payrolls expanded by 600 jobs (0.6%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 3.1% in the latest month, up from 2.5% one year ago. Salt Lake County employment rose by 12,600 jobs (2.1%) over the year. The county’s unemployment rate was 3.1% in the latest month, up from 2.6% last year. Washington County payrolls expand- ed by 1,100 jobs (2.1%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in the latest month, up from 3.0% one year ago. National Employment The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net decline of 20,000 jobs in April 2008, the fourth monthly decline in a row. The 20,000 net job loss, however, was much better than the consensus forecast of a loss of 75,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.0% in April, down slightly from March’s 5.1% rate. The current 5.0% jobless rate compares to a 4.5% rate of one year ago. The average hourly wage rose only 0.1% (one cent) to $17.88 hourly, the smallest gain in two years, and a rise of 3.4% over the past 12 months. Goods-producing employment continued to decline in April, with a net loss of 110,000 jobs. Construction employment fell by 61,000 positions, while manufacturing lost another 46,000 jobs. Service-providing employment led the way in April with a rise of 90,000 net new jobs. The education & health services sector added 52,000 net new jobs during the month, while the professional & business services sector added 39,000 jobs. The leisure & hospitality sector added 18,000 net new jobs, while the government sector added 9,000 jobs. The estimated net decline of 260,000 jobs during 2008’s first four months was a painful contrast to the estimated rise of 374,000 net new jobs during 2007’s first four months. The May 2008 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released on June 10, 2008. Additional information is available at <www.zionsbank.com> Jeff Thredgold, Thredgold Economic Associates Economic Consultant to Zions Bank (801) 614-0403 (c)2007 Thredgold Economic Associates Happy Memorial Day P.O. Box 745 Eden UT 84310 Office 801.745.6700 Fax 801.745.9499 KenTurnerRE.com Ken Turner Real Estate Presents... Seclusion Top of the World Views Awesome Beauty Backcountry Access Celeste C. 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