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Show Page 12 The Ogden Valley news Volume XIV Issue XVII June 15, 2007 Weber County’s Small Business Sector to Benefit from Stronger U.S. Economic Growth in Coming Months Highlights • The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 105.4 in May 2007, up from a revised 104.7 in April 2007. • Utah's unemployment rate was estimated at 2.5% in the latest month, up from the prior month's 2.4% rate. Total Utah employment is up an estimated 54,100 jobs during the past 12 months. • Weber County experienced job growth of 2,700 jobs (2.9%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 2.8%, down from the 3.6% unemployment rate one year ago. • The state's small business sector should benefit from stronger American economic growth likely to occur over the next 12 months. • The U.S. economy added 157,000 net new jobs in May-slightly above expectations-and nearly double April's 80,000 job rise. The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5% Stronger U.S. Growth The U.S. economy recorded its slowest growth pace in more than four years during 2007’s first quarter. The U.S. Commerce Department’s first revision of economic growth (GDP) came in at a 0.6% real (inflation adjusted) annual rate, less than half the 1.3% real annual growth estimate in late April. However, components of the report, combined with other economic data of recent days indicating stronger manufacturing and overall employment growth prospects, suggest a return to a 2.2%-3.0% real annual growth pace over the balance of the year is likely. Weakness in the nation’s housing and automotive sectors contributed to the soft economic growth pace. Strength during the first quarter was primarily found in the consumer spending area. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of overall U.S. economic performance, rose at a 4.4% annual rate during the Januaryto-April period, after rising at a 4.2% pace during the prior quarter. A decline in business inventories helped push the first quarter’s growth pace lower, as did rising imports. However, the fact that inventories of goods actually declined in the quarter strongly suggests that production levels will be boosted in the current and following quarters, leading to stronger overall economic growth. We continue to expect the U.S. economy to gain strength as 2007 matures. We also expect to see a return to stronger economic growth in 2008. U.S. economic growth is a component of the Utah Small Business Index. 43,700 jobs in 2005, and 30,200 jobs in 2004. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period and a net loss of 1,300 jobs in 2001 through 2003. Stronger job gains, leading to better income creation and stronger retail spending, have a positive impact upon Utah’s small businesses and, therefore, the Index. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 105.4 during May 2007, up from a revised 104.7 during April 2007. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A higher Index number is associated with more favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index includes revisions Utah Employment to various historical and new forecast The Utah unemployment rate-the most components as they become available. heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah-was Local Performance estimated at 2.5% in the latest month, up Weber County experienced job growth slightly from the prior month’s 2.4% rate. of 2,700 jobs (2.9%) from a year ago. The 2.5% rate compares to a jobless rate Joblessness registered 2.8%, down from of 3.1% during the same month one year the 3.6% unemployment rate one year ago. A jobless rate of 2.3% in February ago. ranked with the lowest ever recorded in Cache County employment grew by the state and was the lowest in the conti- 1,500 jobs (3.2%) in the latest 12-month nental U.S. A higher Utah unemployment period. The area’s jobless rate was 2.0%, rate is a positive contributor to the Index as down from the 2.6% rate of one year ago. it implies increased access to Utah labor. Davis County payrolls expanded by Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 2.9% 3,400 jobs (3.4%) in the past year. The in 2006, 4.3% in 2005, 5.1% in 2004, unemployment rate was 2.4% in the latest 5.7% in 2003 and in 2002, and 4.4% in month, down from 3.1% one year ago. 2001. These rates compare to an average Salt Lake County employment rose by Utah unemployment rate of 3.5% between 25,700 jobs (4.5%) over the year. The 1995 and 1999. Total Utah employment county’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% rose by an estimated 54,100 jobs (up in the latest month, down from 3.1% last 4.5%) over the past 12 months. The 4.5% year. rise is one of the strongest annualized Utah County employment grew by Utah gains in more than 10 years, and is 9,600 jobs (5.5%) over the last 12 months. the strongest job growth rate in the nation. The area’s jobless rate was 2.4%, down This rise compares to a revised gain of from the 3.0% rate of one year ago. 53,600 jobs in the prior year-over-year Washington County payrolls expanded period. Utah added 55,200 jobs in 2006, by 2,800 jobs (5.4%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 2.5% in the latest month, down from 3.0% one year ago. National Employment The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net gain of 157,000 jobs in May 2007, slightly above consensus expectations of a 135,000 rise. Reported gains of the two prior months were revised roughly 10,000 lower. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.5% in May, matching April’s rate. March’s 4.4% jobless rate matched that of October 2006 as the lowest in more than five years. The average hourly wage rose 0.3% (six cents) to $17.30 hourly, a rise of 3.8% over the past 12 months...versus the smaller 2.6% rise in consumer prices over the 12month period ending in April. Goods-producing employment declined in May, with a net loss of 19,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment fell by 19,000 positions, while construction employment was unchanged. Service-providing employment led the way in May with a rise of 176,000 net new jobs. The education & health services sector added 54,000 positions, while the leisure & hospitality sector added 46,000 net new jobs. The professional & business services sector added 32,000 jobs, with the government sector added 22,000 net new jobs. The U.S. economy added an average of 133,000 net new jobs monthly in 2007’s first five months, down 30% from the 189,000 average monthly pace during 2006. The 2.26 million rise in net new jobs in 2006 roughly matched gains averaging 2.30 million jobs annually in 2004 and 2005. The June 2007 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released on July 10, 2007. Zions Bank is Utah’s oldest financial institution. Founded in 1873, Zions has been serving the communities of Utah for more than 130 years. For more information, contact Zions Bank’s Eden office at 745-0835 or log on to <www.zionsbank.com> -Public NoticeZions Bank Ogden Marathon and Goal Foundation are offering a cash reward of $500 for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the vandals of the Zions Bank Ogden Marathon. Anonymous tips will be taken by Deputy Mike Chatelaine at 801-395-8221. |