Show Page February County Chronicle Progress Millard S Yovember Dick Asiel Talbot Pr Hjr'i tix4 24 2008 Dick February surrounded by his loving of his children peacefully returned to his Heavenly Father He was 65 and had suffered years of pain from complications of leukemia His family is comforted by the knowledge that he suffers no longer Dick was born on March 4 1442 in Oak City Utah He was the seventh of nine children bom to Lee and Velma Talbot Dick graduated from Delta High School where he enjoyed playing sports Shortly after returning from an L D S mission to the Eastern States he met Mane Anderson while working in Alamo Nevada They were sealed in the St George Temple 81 days later and have been married for 44 years Together Dick and Mane had five 2 grandchildren and children 27 one They served six L D S missions together Dick did wonders with wood and has left behind his love for his family and friends in many of the things he made for them He was a handyman in many ways and always kept his families homes and hearts lovingly patched together Hunting and fishing held much joy for him but these activities were always enhanced when coupled On Sunday t' anting my column And ill continue semester am teaching am afraid am and precieiv because am having so much tun teaching it a neve clanit gening around to many other thingv right now Tomorrow (Mondavi my cUw wili take their second test and so do not have a lecture to improve tor tomorrow and can write my column instead Looking forward to this semester would use my lectures to intorm my columns how the dreamt about how subject matter ot my course The I inverse and the level at which it is to be taught general education rather than physics or science majors would make it effortless to talk about that course material in my column Well the trouble never hmsh polishing a lecture betore the bell that orders me into the is that lecture had brutally rips it out ot my hands Mv midterms have a common structure hrst ten true or false questions and the he hrst test was taken by almost a hundred students five short essuv questions for one ot the true or talse judgments submitted twentv did not show up the following statement t clipse season is scheduled by Congress What eclpse season’ It has to do with the mechanics of how the Larth moves around the Sun and the Minin moves around the Larth Despite its awesome powers I ongress does not yet have any bearing on those things Just lke hurricane season it is complete a natural phenomenon beyond the control of any human body So my expectation was that clearly everybody would get this and dutitjlly collect a point tor judging FALSI! And so they did - with three exceptions hrec people were either cocky enough to tell me in so many words that they do not need points that take no intellectual effort to earn or So why did put such a question in my test My intent was precisely to make way my students consciously note that whatever we may feel about nature of doing things it is folly to think that even the most powerful body in the nation and maybe the world could possibly do something about it The other problems on the test were more scientific and at least one other one bore an interesting result 5b percent of my one hundred students got it right This took as an invitation to deviate from my course materials and throw in a lecture on statistics H re it comes I el us get out onto the soccer field for a moment Before the game the referee ill ip a coin to determine huh side gets to get the ball rolling The assumption is that his coin is fair meaning that it will show heads or tails each about half the time it is Hipped into the air So let us throw it a hundred times W hat do we expect to gel fitly titty right Right W ill we really get this’’ Not likely More likely we will get something like 43 to 57 and if we do it again maybe 56 to 44 and so one It we try our hundred flips often enough we will get a 50 to Ml every now and then but we will never get a 2 to 08 for example Now every body who studied the subject will know what know If we do it often enough we expect 6X percent ot all series ot a hundred com flips to yield a result where both the number of heads and the number of tails are between 43 and 57 - if the coin is fair Most ot the time it will NOT be 50 And the other side ot that coin is that 32 percent ot the lime it will be outside of this interval that calculated to be 50 the expectation lor a fair coin plus or minus 7 - which is the square root of 50(7 times 7 is 40) That use the square root of the number expect to count to confidence interval is a very general rule for counting things hnd this that happen independently ot one another So unlevs explicitly stated otherwise the confidence interval or margin of etror on a statistical measurement is the region around the expected value where 68 percent of all real measured values will come to lie Independent means that one measurement does not depend on another It you ask if Bush is a good president and you ask the five young children of a lather who thinks that he is you will get five yes votes but have to suspect that this is correlated If you ask five teenage children of the same lather you will get hve no votes for the same reason - just because the father said he is a good president All of your "measurements" are highly correlated All children you asked are listening to the same father Your measured samples are not independent from each other This is election lime and statisticians are having a field day Always look for their margin ot error it has a very profound meaning If we now look at my test result again (56 correct of 100) we have to suspect that my students knew noshing about the subject matter of that question shame on me! The result is exactly what you suspect would happen if they had each flipped a coin to figure out if the statement presented them w ith was true or false cannot try to pretend that 50 knew what they were doing and that is why they got it right and only the rest flipped coins In that case we would expect 75 correct answers w ith an error margin of The 75 is 50 who knew plus 25 who got lucky flipping their coin and since the 50 knew there is no error expected from them so the uncertainty in our result has to be the square root of 25 (who flipped corns) Now if we measure the distance between 5b and 75 in temis of the uncertainty of 5 it is four stuidud deviations away In terms of our earlier assumption of all 50 flipping coins the dev iition hetw een 56 and 50 measured by the appropriate uncertainty of 7 is less than one standard deviation So the statistically much more likely assumption is that all my students flipped coins - e hardly anybody knew the correct answer although 56 scent lo have gotten it right On the other hand 32 percent of all repetitions of such a measurement series are supposed to give us results OUT SIDE the margin of error away So it can happen and will happen (') that a measurement is off by more In physics we cannot normally repeat our measurements as easy as throwing a coin another hundred times So we need a standard for when we call a result significantly diflerent from an expectation For a hundred coin flips not to yield exactly 50 tails but only 44 is not significant If you only get 20 tails though it very probably tells you something about the coin it is weighted not to be fair The probability to get only 20 tails from a fair com is VERY low - but it is not zero either So here are the definitions scientists use to mark evidence for a new effect and finally observation of a new effect greater than 3 standard deviations or 3 margins ot error away from expected is evidence for a new effect and 5 standard deviations is good enough to claim observation of a new effect And here is the cosmic punchline IliRes on the Dugway Proving Ground made the first observation ol the Graven 7atscpin Kuzmin cutoff in the cosmic ray spectrum That is news and is now accepted for publication in a major scientific journal Telescope Array carries forward the HiRes tradition As usual comments and questions are welcome at martens kat a gntail com me a really long time to get hack to ke this tir the rest ot the stel Talbot wife and all w ith family was proceeded in death by his father Lee Talbot mother Velma Bunker Talbot sister Bonita Talbot Law and one grandson He is survived by his w tfe Maria Anderson Talbot of Springv file Utah and children LeAnn Ron) Andrew s of Spanish Fork Utah He D (Jamie) Talbot of Mesquite Nevada Layne (Rosella) Talbot of South Jordan Utah LynNae (Martin) Pena of Cedar C tty Utah and Stanley (Presha) Talbot of Cedar City Utah For those who wish to pay their respects a viewing will be held on Friday February 29 2008 at the Wheeler Mortuary (211 East 200 South) in Springs die Utah from 6 00 p m to 8 00 p m A funeral and celebration of his life will follow on Saturday March 2008 at the L D S Chapel at 840 South 400 East in Springs ille Utah at II 00 a m with a viewing from 4 30 to 10 45 prior to the service Dick will be laid to rest in the Sutherland Utah cemetery J at 3 p m w Condolences may be heelennortuary com Afton "Betty" Utley Hunter Hunter Afton 82 passed "Betty" on February 25 2008 in Cedar Utah She was born July 26 1925 in Fillmore to Benjamin and Mary lien Levte Utley She married Sidney A Hunter on April 28 1946 in Las Vegas Nevada The manuge was solemnized in the Mann LDS Temple on March 6 1947 Sidney preceded sent at her in www death on away City Thank you The family of Nathan G LeBaron wish lo express appreciation for the and support given us at the time of Nate’s passing Thank you family and friends w ho prov tded a w onderful luncheon after the funeral We love you Special thanks to the bishopric and members of the Oak City First Ward for going out of their way to help and accommodate the services love 2008 Dan R McDonald In Memoriam b 27 Thank you to Ntckle Mortuary for your invaluable help in nuking final arrangements Gary and Suzanne LeBaron Brandi and Carter Svedin Marlayna and Kris Merkley Sean and Jill LeBaron Mike LeBaron Dan LeBaron Tawnee LeBaron 1114 Support Local Businesses lOLSfju V'4 - February 2 2X)8 Dan R “Danny" McDonald unexpectedly passed away on February 18 2008 Danny was bom November 2 1954 in Delta the first of four children to Darnel and Zada McDonald Danny was a graduate of Delta High School After graduation to Salt Lake City wher- he worked for several years betore he spent returning to Deseret where the rest of his life Danny loved to hunt fish ndeAIA 's and spend tune outdoors The West Desert was his playground spending time there whenever possible Danny was an avid deer hunter hunting almost every season since he was able to get a license He is survived by his children Danielle McDonald (Taylor) Evans and Ltssa McDonald (Cory) Hutchings of Salt Lake City mother Zada McDonald of Deseret one sister Gw en McDonald of Delta two brothers Wells McDonald of Bountiful Russell (Kathy) McDonald of Airway Heights Washington nephew Ben McLXmjld of Delta and several other nieces and nephew s He was preceded in death by his grandparents Wells and Eva Robison father Daniel McDonald Services were held on Friday am at the February 22 2008 at Deseret Oasis Church Friends called Friday morning at the church from 9 40 am Burial was in the Deseret Cemetery under the direction of the Nicklc Mortuary Millie Fullmer Roth Millie Fullmer Roth 76 died February 20 2008 Bom in Abraham Utah October 5 1931 to William and Leona Fullmer Attended elementary school in Hinckley L'tah and High School in Tooele L'tah She Married David Santuel Roth May 22 1950 Their marriage was later solemnized in the Salt Lake Temple He preceded her in death September 29 1988 Millie had a strong work ethic and retired w ith 26 years of Civ tl Serv ice at Tooele Army Depot Fort McClellan Alabama and the Bureau of Land Management Fillmore L'tah She was an active member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Saints and held many positions throughout her life She especially loved serving in the St George Temple Her greatest source of enjoyment was her children and grandchildren Together they formed an eternal bond of friendship and respect for each other Survivors include her children Scott (Annette) Roth Rupert Idaho Tami (Kent) Hannan Rupert Idaho Knstie (Ken) Krause Spanish Fork Utah Cindy (Kevin) Harris Las Vegas Nevada 19 grandchildren and Four sisters 6 Shirley Spivey Magna Utah Barbara Gardner Bonita California Donna Hamilton Tooele Utah Phyllis McLThaney Torrance California brothers Don Fullmer Fillmore l'tah Robert Fullmer Chula Vista California David Fullmer Tooele l'tah She was preceded in death by her parents and three sisters Margie Ruby and Sara Funeral Services were held at I 00 p m February 23 2008 at the Kanosh Ward Chapel 25 South Mam Kanosh Utah Family greeted friends 00 am to 2 30 p m at the from church Interment was in the Kanosh Cemetery under care of Rasmussen Three Mortuary °'lIIITi UVji Call Steve or CTD Joyce Olsen as or office meetings available by appointment and straighten headstones! We also clean Engravings Branson & Dalton Memorial Sons Monument Co Darren Denny Shane Four Generations Custom DesignedS Headstones 205 S Main Fillmore Utah 84631 9 (435) You Already Know That Maker Extra Tal c tlie Stin£ out of clvertising costs Advertise in tlie ihlttfe 'Selllit) ma Classifieds KMKlcrNM)!) ' r" DONT MISS OUT ON MEDICARES OPEN ELECTION PERIOD! ACT NOW! 2008 ENROLLMENT ENDS MARCH 31 Call your local agent today Debra Jackson TTYTDD 711 net dajacksonfrontiemet 1000 AM to 00 P M UniCart contracts with the Federal gwemment to provide Medicare Advantage pUnt "With any Mednare Advantage plan pay your Medicare Part premium d not you must continue otherwise paid far under Medicaid or another third party Debra jadcson is an authorized agent in Utah far tl t IM- Just a reminder that for over 70 years ive hate offered a tradition Jndividua emotions may run very of high w hile making arrangements for the passing of a loved one At Olpin ue understand this That’s why during our initial consult we strive to discover the particular needs of each individual family We realize that each family is different and unique with their own set of values and family traditions ejauraum it is with great pride care and a sincere understanding that we provide your fumdy with the comfort dignity and closure needed during this most difficult time VTidicDTuh values — Olpin Mortuary 55 Wert 200 South Tc3-- f r: (3)70261 i Fillmore Utsh 84631 Phora: (435)746261 |