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Show ,'1 1 1 ' !i ti 'fi 'r rrrrT r; nnif i " ' Ernest Conine r1 f " rn 'i i i ' 1 The Salt Lake Tribune, Saturday. November r.p.fl 13, 1982 y I 5 New Soviet Leadership Might Cut Defense Spending Los Angeles Times For most Americans who support the nuclear-freez- e movement, the main objective has been to send President Reagan a that they expect him to make a message serious effort to curb the nuclear arms race. Now that freeze initiatives have passed But, whatever the present assessment in Moscow, it is quite conceivable that by 1985 the Kremlin will feel the need to restrain the growth in Soviet defense spending for reasons of its own. Indeed, the pressures will come from the alarming state of the Soviet economy. There is an impressive degree of consensus among Western experts that the Soviet economy is becoming a disaster area. Since the problems are deeply rooted in the Soviet system of communism itself, they cannot be solved without change. And reforms of real substance would almost certainly require a reduction in the growth of, if not actual cuts in, military spending. in California and nine other states, many opponents of the movement worry that the Soviet. Union will get a quite different message. The Kremlin, they fear, may figure that the Soviet Union need make no concessions or otherwise bestir itself to reach balanced arms-contragreements with Washington. ol With public for the Reagan program ebbing, Congress will restrain the U S. side of the arms race anyway. The Soviets, according to this reasoning, may calculate that if there is to be a new arms-contragreement they can get a better deal by waiting for a Democratic president. administrations Back in the 1950s, the Soviet gross national product grew at an average rate of about 6 percent a year. It has been dropping steadily ever since; today, economic growth is down to 2 percent a year and, in the view of many analysts, may fall even further. support arms-buildu- p ol The United States and other Western h democracies have problems of their own. The difference for the Soviets is that growth has leveled off while their economy is still far smaller and far less efficient than the Americans. Agriculture is a special problem. This may or may not be the thinning in Moscow now that Brezhnev is dead, but, if it is, the new Soviet leaders could be guilty of serious miscalculation. slow-growt- To begin with, the Democrats may not recapture the White House two years hence. Even if they do, the new occupant may be no more prepared than Reagan to give away the store. There was a time when the Russian empire was one of the worlds great g areas. Now, after six grain-exportin- decades of communist rule, a fourth of the grain consumed by the Soviet Union is imported. Such imports consume half the e earnings countrys money that the Kremlin would rather spend for foreign technology. of l with growing awareness does seem to be feeding corruption public mood of cynicism. high-leve- a foreign-exchang- The problem isnt just in grain production. Output of virtually all major crops potatoes, sugar beets, fruits and vegetables has peaked and begun to decline in recent years. Bad weather is a factor, but no more so than in the czars time. Nor is the dismal performance the result of neglect. Prof. Marshall I. Goldman, associate director of the Russian Research Center at Harvard, observes that 27 percent of total Soviet investment goes to agriculture, compared with only 5 percent in the United States. Meanwhile, the economy remains uncomfortably dependent on foreign sources of technological innovation. And, even when technology is developed at home or bought or stolen from abroad, there is a built-iresistance within the system to its actual n use. Soviet officials have long complained about the technological lag in industry. In a speech a month before he died, Brezhnev strongly suggested that the same problem is afflicting the powerful military-industricomplex, despite its priority claim on skilled manpower and advanced technology. Soviet decision-makinseems to be basically on hold until a clear successor to Brezhnev emerges. When that happens, though, the leadership has several apparent options. g Yet the situation continues to grow worse instead of better. With an inefficient farm sector soaking up vast resources with little effect, the Soviet economy as now organized is able to meet current military requirements only by robbing the consumer and drastically cutting back the growth in capital investment. Some recent Soviet emigres contend that years living standards have actually begun to decline. Whether or not this is true, disillusionment with the together countrys economic prospects in recent One would be to cut still deeper into the hides of consumers. But the Kremlin cant go too far in that direction without risking worker dissatisfaction of an order that would threaten political stability and nullify the efforts to make industry more productive. Another option would be to frankly allow private enterprise a major share of the action, or at least to adopt a Hungarian- - st le dilution of overly rigid central authority over the economy. After all, nearly a third of all vegetable, meat and dairy staples consumed by the Soviet people are grown on private plots that make up only 3 percent of the cropland. In the construction industry, teams of private moonlighters are twice as productive as ordinary workers. The implications are obvious. Outside experts generally agree, however, that the men in Moscow can't allow or even reprivatization of the economy the limited decentralization adopted by without inviting a parallel Hungary erosion of centralized political control. And that they are unwilling to do. Against these facts of life, a reduction in military spending that would release resources for other needs may come to be seen as the least-baalternative. The Soviet leaders obviously haven't reached that point yet. Brezhnev, in a speech shortly before his death, talked in terms of more rather than less military spending. For now, Eastern policymakers would be foolish to assume that this is idle talk. But, when Brezhnevs successors get down to the cold, hard business of calculating how to rejuvenate the economy without making unacceptable ideological concessions, the logic of easing off on arms outlays could prove compelling. (Copyright) d The Public Forum Tribune Readers Opinions Lost Her Bags On Oct. 28, 1 arrived in Salt Lake City by plane to visit your fair city for the first time. In the happiness and confusion of a greeting my friends, one of my bags blue rucksack or day pack was left in the airport parking lot next to where our car had been. When a friend returned an hour later, it was nowhere to be seen. Ive had no word that any of the contents has been found in spite of an ad in your Lost and Found classifieds. The pack contained a pair of leather hiking boots and a Minolta SRT 101 35 mm. camera with 50 mm. and 24 mm. lenses. But most important to me, and quite worthless to anyone else, were my personal journal (a black notebook with red binding and the only item that might have contained my name and an old address) and an orange folder with all of the material for a class in German translation that Im taking. In Forum Rules Public Forum letters must be submitted exclusively to The Tribune and bear writers full name, signature and address. Names must be printed on political letters but may be withheld for good reasons on others. Writers are limited to one letter every 10 days. Preference will be given to short, typewritten (double spaced) letters permitting use of the writers true name. All letters are subject to condensation. Mail to the Public Forum, The Salt Lake Tribune, Box 867, Salt Lake City, Utah, 84110, addition, there were two novels, some Nepalese jewelry, and a pound of fresh Pacific Ocean scallops (which I hope somebody ate before it was too late.) I would be eternally grateful to anyone who was willing and able to return any or all of this property; not only that, Id pay them a monetary reward! NANCY CHURCH Franklin St. Portland, Or. 97202 1039 S. E. Gratifying Response The Salt Lake County Youth Services crisis counseling facility Center, a for runaway and ungovernable youth and their families, would like to express its appreciation to the many individuals who responded to the Parade Magazine article of Sept. 5, regarding runaway youth. The citizen outpouring of concern and offers of help were overwhelming and most gratifying. The Youth Services Center received several donations, added considerably to its dedicated volunteer staff, and was able to share much valuable information with concerned individuals about local services available to runaway youth. As the citizens Advisory Board to the Youth Services Center, we likewise appreciate the outpouring of community support and urge continual involvement with the Center, 3999 South Main, Murray; phone number 535-503- j is his own affair, of course. But to imply thit the life of a hunter is of ro more value than that of a deer, is surely condoning taking the life of another. He calls it getting shot by mistake once in a while. According to Mace the victim got what he deserved because he went What difference the kind of hunting! creature that takes the bullet? he asks. The difference is that the law calls the one, homicide. Another question that comes to mind: doesnt Mr. Mace consider his own life of any importance? Is he, and members of his family on a par of equal value to the animals of the wilderness? Which, by the way, have been used to provide meat for the table since the days of Genesis. LEE STEVENSON Costs Climb Welfare programs are lumped together in the federal budget with other items called In 1965, these programs entitlements. cost about $34 billion. By 1975, they cost the taxpayers about $149 billion. In 1985, under Mr. Reagans proposals (the ones the liberal editors and politicians are screaming about) they will cost the taxpayers about $430 billion. r Social Security cost $17.5 billion in 1965. By 1975, the cost had jumped to $64.7 billion. By 1985, the program will be costing more than $200 billion. Medicare cost $14.8 billion in 1975. In 1985 it will cost $77 billion. And that is under the which our liberal Reagan proposals brethren proclaim are penalizing the poor. On defense in 1965, 40.1 percent of the federal budget went for national defense; in and by 1975, 26.2 percent went for defense 1985, 27.1 percent of the federal budget will go for defense. The interest rates (the Federal Reserve arbitrarily sets these) which has caused so many bankruptcises, thus, further unemployment, does not come under the authority of the Reagan administration. The president can talk to the head of the Federal Reserve System and you could write them a letter of protest with the same results. Congress alone has the authority to deal with and control the independent Federal Reserve System. In fiscal 1982, interest paid to the owners of Federal Reserve System stock is about $105 billion from us taxpayers. This is the interest due on the National Debt. LEO J. SUNDAY Monroe Back to Work With the elections out of the way our senators can now hurry back to Washington and get on with the serious business of making speeches to special interest groups and gratefully accepting cash honoraria. JOHN MC GEE Murray ALICIA DURAN Chairperson, Youth Services Center Advisory Board I had the pleasure of spending the entire day with Gov. Scott Matheson at the capitol. This was made possible by entering and winning a contest sponsored by the State Scene Newsletter. Ibe prize being Shadow Governor for a day. I would like to publicly thank Gov. Matheson and his staff for a very pleasurable and informative experience. Gov. Matheson is a very gracious person, but more important than that, he is also an informed, hard working governor. In spite of the fact the Democratic Party suffered losses the previous day, he was cheerful, pleasant and genuinely concerned about the state of Utah and its residents. If all Utahns could have the opportunity to spend a day with this man, we would need no future gubernatorial elections for a long time. Thank you, Lamont Cranston, for picking me as winner of the contest. And a special thanks to Marian Seibenhar for making me feel so comfortable with everyone on the Please, No Complaints This is by way of an open letter to the successful candidates of this years election. My congratulations to them all. They all worked harder than I can remember in recent memory. Now that it is all over and they are doing what they have worked so hard for, and especially those who must go to Washington to do their chosen work, there is one thing I must ask of them. When they get there, and find they must maintain two homes, please show the citizens of Utah the courtesy of not complaining about the cost of maintaining two separate residences. They knew all along what it was going to require, and I for one feel that the salaries they are receiving are more than adequate. VERNA VAN ETTEN - ffi- Called Homicide Surely more than one reader couldnt believe what they were reading when K. Mace (Forum, Nov. 4) informed us that human life is no more important than the deer that roam the hills! Perhaps Mr. Mace is a vegetarian, which Nov. 3 hill. Our state can be proud of the warmth, humor and tremendous ability you all project. DOTTIE KRAUSE 2- 1 I j k Flora Lewis What Comes Next After Brezhnev? New York Times Service With the death of Leonid Brezhnev, American analysts of the Soviet Union will concentrate on the succession and what its likely to mean for us. Although each has a special angle, the talk has shown that there is more of a consensus than appears from the arguments. With exceptions at both extremes, the experts agree on several key points. The first is that they dont really blow whats next, that the new personality at the top will make a difference but that the really important transition will come when a new generation, people under 60, takes over the upper ranks of the Soviet bureaucracy. The second is that while the Soviet Union has serious and mounting internal troubles, it isnt about to collapse or be pushed over the brink to drastic change, as some Reagan administration policy makers think. The third is that there will be some definite changes in the operation of the Soviet economy, though economic and political specialists disagree on how important they will be. The economists think reforms to cut through bottlenecks stifling the Soviet economy will really matter. The political scientists point out that they wont change the system and therefore wont solve the biggest problems of a congealed society. Either way, they agree that the Russians arent going to rise up and throw the rascals out or force them to adopt manners. Sunday-schoNow comes a Soviet writer to confirm this conclusion and to stress some human verities. He is a dissident who hasnt been heard from in the West before, and his special power is that he has a devastating sense of humor. With corrosive, sometimes brutal satire, Iouz Alechkowski illuminates the central fact about relations between the people and the regime in Soviet society today. They arent trying to overthrow the system. They are trying to beat it, to wring from it the chance to lead reasonably normal lives and get what they can for themselves. The book, called The Kangaroo," was written in Moscow where it circulated underground, and was recently published in France. An American edition is scheduled, A but the book is very difficult to translate because it is written in the street slang Russians really use with no pretensions to d literature. That is not only refreshing, it gives Mr. Alechkowskis hilarious if cruel story the stunning impact of a Candide, a Schweik, a 1984. Here, for the first time I know of, a Russian has stripped away the sonoroties of Soviet history to highlight its absurdity from an ordinary, human point of view. It shows the way thought has evolved on the inside of the closed society. Alechkowski was forced into exile, but he obviously knows what goes on beneath his peoples skin, the rulers as well as the ruled. high-minde- His hero is a petty crook, with many aliases, who has worked for the KGB as an informer, but who keeps protesting that he is a normal man who only wants to survive with a bit of everyday comfort. Caught in the bureaucratic web and offered a choice of confessions to help with a required propaganda trial, he claims to have raped and killed the oldest kangaroo in the Moscow zoo. Because it's so outrageous, that seems to him the least dangerous and least inhuman of the idiotic available. ol Pleasant Day On I even check cigarette packages nowadays (cough, cough) just to make sure (hack, wheeze) nobodys poisoning me! Notice the chill in the air this morning? You forgot to pay the electric bill. At one point, the interrogator explains why a confession and show trial are The people are bleeding the necessary: government white with their demands. So the hero is told his patriotic duty is to help put down the people by providing grounds for his own imprisonment or execution. The kangaroo nonsense seems to promise the lesser evil, but it is only less than death itself. And that too is a basic truth, for the Soviet people manage to endure and survive no matter what. The happy ending is simply to persist in avoiding disaster. It should be a reminder to American leaders that avoiding disaster is a prime The Way It Was Here are the briefs of The Salt Lake Tribune from 100, 50 and 25 years ago. Nov. 13, 1882 was postponed a day in order not to conflict with the concert of the Maestro Artists at Kingsbury Hall on the university campus. Nov. 13, 1957 Replying to an Italian deputation which Establish an overall plan for a Utah State recently waited upon him, Mr. Victor Hugo declared the alliance of Italy and France to Park System, educate Utahns on the states be imperishable. In short time France, important tourist resources and the realizaItaly, Spain, and perhaps Greece and tion that every dollar invested brings England are to occupy Africa conjointly in returns up to $10. the name of civilization, and thus the These are among the prime objectives of nations are to begin the United Sta's of the new State Park and Recreation ComEurope. mission, Harold P. Fabian, commission Nov. 13, 1932 chairman, told Salt Lake Rotary Club After an absence of 12 years, Efrem members Tuesday at Hotel Utah. s The commission also is working with the violinist, will be Zimbalist, heard in concert in Salt Lake, appearing Utah Tourist and Publicity Council to arouse the rest of the nation on the intrinsic Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. at the First Congregational church, under the auspices of the Salt values of Utahs tourist attractions, said Lake Civic Music Association. Originally Mr. Fabian. Utahs potential in this respect announced for Monday evening, the concert is terrific, he added. world-famou- goal for all the world. The Soviet rulers are no more going to remove their obstreperous selves from the scene in response to U.S. growls, than we are going to invite them to take over the world. They are there, and we must live alongside, thankful we aren't obliged to live underneath. The worst troubles dont come from people like himself who are just trying to get by with their wits and their brawn, the hero of "The Kangaroo keeps noticing Horror is inflicted by people who think they can change the world, fix it up in their own image and obliterate barriers instead of wangling through. Commenting on some American ideologues, Russell Baker recently said on this page, A problem of dreamers is they tend to be inflexible in their desire to bring uplift to humanity . . . (they want) something, well, better, to sprout in (the system's) ruins. As Alechkowski shows, the Soviet people have learned what comes of making ruins. At least the last time something was left to sprout. |