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Show 4 Sun Advocate, Price, Utah Friday, January 22, 1982 in tho IbyisStni Sun Advocate CSB promotes Harris to v.p. Babson's economic forecast What's ahead for business Editor's nota: Economic condition and tha ttatua of public tantlmant In tha cloalng waak of 1961 stand In stark contrast to thoaa of lata 1960. Now a 1981 givaa way to 1962. tha aconomy Is gripped by a racasslon and thara is a rising tida of anxiety that tha Reagan prescription will produce further harsh dislocations. This Is the first in a series by Babson's Reports Inc. detailing hs business and financial forecast for 1962. The staff of Babsons Reports feels it is premature to summarily dismiss the Reagan Administrations efforts to shore up the foundation of the economy. It must be remembered that not all of the provisions of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 are yet in effect. In addition, pessimism with respect to The high level of interest rates served to stifle business equipment demand, but these promise to be a less inhibiting factor in the year ahead. ' considerations is fundamental and long-ternot justified when one gives due weight to the fact that at least some progress has already been made in slowing inflation and lowering interest rates. Yet much more improvement must be attained on both fronts before their dangers are genuinely subdued, and this is a task which undoubtedly will take a good deal to acof time and dogged persistence complish. The backlash on both counts in 1980 attests to the absurdity of band-ai- d type solutions. The true severity of the current recession can also be better evaluated by taking into account the postponement of business capital of liberalized depreciation under the tax legislation would not commence until m January 1, 1982. During the hiatus, this important element activity has been kept on a subpar basis. Hence, it is only reasonable to assume that we shall have some catch-u- p buying as 1982 progresses. Of course, the high level of interest rates also served to stifle business equipment demand, but these promise to be a less inhibiting factor in the year ahead. Indeed, interest rates have already worked down to levels that are appreciably less prohibitive to borrowers. " 1982 from recession to expansion ' Judging from the behavior of various key of industrial economic indicators, the last quarter of 1981 will prove to be the low point for the years business performance. After an unexpectedly vigorous advance in the first three months, the economy softened a bit during the ensuing two quarters and then slumped sharply to close out the year immersed in a genuine recession. Thus, we have slipped into recession twice in cpnsecutive years. Yet, unlike 1980s economic drop, which within that year, the ended and began recession of 1981 will likely carry over into early 1982. Even so, due to the severity of the nosedive during the past three months and given the decline in interest rates, there may be only a downward shading of economic activity during the first 1982 quarter, followed by a flat performance in the spring weeks. This scenario may not be impressive but it is far less disheartening than the pessimistic predictions which have prevailed of late. Moreover, scattered signs of improvement should be emerging before long, though perhaps not in sufficient quantity and inoverall business tensity to spell large-scal- e Around however, the midyear, gains. economy should be moving ahead in concert, and we expect the final half of 1982 to feature distinct upside progress even though the summer weeks may be more robust than the fall season. By autumn new growth in demand for credit may begin to take hold. This should make for some braking influence, though not enough to prevent a definite business uptrend for the years final two quarters. More sober expectations Early months of 1981 were filled with mounting anticipation that the new national leadership would revitalize the economy and restore some luster to Americas role in international affairs. However, the actual scope and magnitude of the nations problems have brought home to the public the fact that there are no easy solutions. Nevertheless, this does not mean that no progress will be made. As the initial public ebullience when the Reagan Administration took office was probably unduly optimistic, so also the current swing to disillusionment is RELIANT Debenham Electric Supply Co. Inc. has appointed Odine Christianson its intermountain sales area manager. of Development university office in Salt Lake City in 1979 and has worked in the marketing division since 1980. from Harris graduated Brigham Young University with a bachelor of science degree in marketing in 1978. He has furthered his professional Debenham names sales manager Debenham, Ray president, said Christianson will have responsibility for sales in the companys Price and Salt Lake City branch offices. Debenham Electric also has offices in Anchorage and Kenai, Alaska. Christianson has 23 years experience in wholesale electrical sales and supply in Salt Lake City and the intermountain region. He is a graduate of South High School and he attended the University of Utah. He resides in Salt Lake City with his wife and three children. 'Cash flow of corporations will be enhanced by the lower tax rates on profits and more liberal depreciation schedules for capital investments.' Bank teller wins regional award Betty Procarione, a teller at the Price office of First Interstate Bank, has achieved the distinction of teller specialist as part of the banks Top Teller in tax exemption on income from the dividend reinvestment plans of qualified utility companies and the broader concept of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA) even though both these devices have annual limitations. Also, cash flow of corporations will be enhanced by the lower tax rates on profits and more liberal depreciation schedules for capital investments. The latter should spur the modernization of U.S. productive in facilities, make us more foreign markets without compromising quality. the She also passed an arduous written examination incentive Territory In recognition of her efforts, she received a $300 cash bonus and a nameplate identifying her as a teller specialist. She is now eligible to participate in successive levels of the. program' which offer even larger cash incentives and recognition, Farrington said. program. Nedra Farrington, assistant vice president and personnel manager, said to qualify for the award, she maintained high standards over a period in customer service, balancing and attendance. , six-mon- th .0 Emery County REBATE REBATE REBATE 6121 7843 Due to i i i i i THATS CASH DIRECT FROM CHRYSLER...OR recent increases in newsprint, printing and postal costs, subscription rates for the Sun Advocate and Emery County Progress will increase February 1, 1982. The increase will affect carrier-delivere- and mail subscriptions. d APPLY IT TOWARD YOUR DOWN PAYMENT. LOWER SHOCK! OUR LOWER PRICES AND YOUR REBATE MAKE IT EASIER TO BUY. HIGH TRADE-INS- . YOUR USED CAR MAY NEVER BE WORTH MORE. T LOWER FUEL COSTS. OUR CARS CAN CUT YOUR GAS BILLS IF YOURE DRIVING AN OLDER U.S. CAR. FINANCING AVAILABLE TO QUALIFIED BUYERS AT MANY PARTICIPATING DEALERS. d present subscribers, either or mail, can RENEW OR EXTEND their present subscriptions before February All 1,1982 carrier-delivere- AT THE OLD RATE. HIGH-MILEAG- Rebate program includes most new '81 and '82 Chryslers and Plymouths except 1982 Horizon Miser, '82 Reliant base model, '82 LeBaron Convertible, '81 and '82 Chrysler New Yorkers, 81 Plymouth Gran Fury. Chrysler CLIP Hurry and fou could E3 Address Mile East of Price I . Phone by renewing or extending 2 I Mail Delivered Name . Manufacturer's suggested retail price excluding title, taxes and destination charges rjaGoaomo, MAIL Subscription Renewal Extension Form Corporation pays the entire amount ot the rebate. See your participating dealer for full details. & Sun Advocate 15 Emery County Progress Please enclose check or money order. your Sun subscription Advocate-Em- ery No cash please. Send to: County Progress P.O. Box X, Price, Utah 84150 L I I i and completed a high volume of work. -- 500 -- 300 Executive ar AND s8697 8143 -- 300 through Association. As a result of his contribution to the Jaycees, he received the Brownfield Award as the outJaycee in standing first-yeUtah. He represented Utah in the Jaycees National Convention in Texas. A native of Provo, he now resides with his family in Orem. the 9197' K CUSTOM COUPE 6421 Plymouth assistant manager (la . Q3D iiiinsiiii Commercial credit. MAKE YOUR BEST DEAL, THEN GET A REBATE DIRECT FROM CHRYSLER. 1982 PLYMOUTH at president classes Omega commercial loan classes and other banking classes. Active in civic functions, he is president of Provo Jaycees and serves on the board of directors of of the Provo Chamber Commerce and board of directors of the Provo Development Co. He is division manager of United Way and a member of the Utah Industrial Security Bank. A business development officer in the marketing division, Harris works in various branches in Price, Helper, Green River, Salt Lake City, Orem and Provo. His office is in the Provo office. Harris joined CSB in 1978 as a management intern. He became DEPENDING ON MODEL. FRONTWHEELDRIVE education Harris has been to assistant vice of additional spending cuts, deferral and of selected outlays, and the g revenues. If our expectation of fresh raising that the bulk of the recession occurred in the fourth quarter of 1981 turns out to be true, estimates of federal budget deficits in this and succeeding fiscal years may prove to be unrealistically high. Also, in view of the steepness of the recession, we would not be surprised to see some of the critics of the tax cuts shift position again and press for the second phase of the tax reduction for individuals to be 2 to some point earlier moved up from in the year. Help from recovery act The recent damaging revelation by Budget Director David Stockman that he doubts the viability of the Administrations economic and fiscal proposals provided additional fuel for the arguments of opponents as the economy slid into recession. However, the potential benefits of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 have not been given adequate When all of the provisions of the legislation are fully operative, these benefits should stimulate the economy. Later, their cumulative effect may have an even more positive influence. Taken individually, the tax benefits are far from large, but their collective impact on private capital forover a period of time will be quite mation positive and widespread. These incentives for individual savings will help replenish private capital reservoirs: The , Kelly promoted mid-198- undoubtedly excessive and somewhat myopic. No doubt there will be more give and take between the White House and Congress in 1982. 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