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Show The Salt Lake Tribune NATION Sunday December 31, 1995 Demographic Profile of 96 ByChuckR. GANNETT NEWS WASHINGTON — You will hear a lot of talk about the new economy, the information age and Voter: Poorer, Older, Angrier @ African-American voter turnout has consistently been lower than the percentage of blacks in the population. How40 years have changedthe Electoral Colle ge and Congress Since the the two parties’ the 21st centuryin the 1996 cam- If paigns, but the electorate still includes strong remnants of an older, industrial-age America Almosta third of eligible voters were alive when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president. Three of 09Swe eriFeaive > gy OBEce WE ee gens$ sek ce® four voters won't have college degrees. Medicare recipients will oSoe Sarre wyroeSPZane outnumber MTVviewers. Factory workerswill dwarf Internet surf- a ers. | presidential Ashasbeenthecase for mostof the post World WarII era, the primebattlegroundswill be in the suburbs, where nearlyhalf of all Americans now live Sincethe last time Republicans controlled Congress in 1952-53 America has turned upside down politically The South — once a political wasteland for the Republicans — is the GOP's strongest national base going into 1996. Democrats are largely a partyof the Northeast and Midwest The demographic profile of Election ‘96 explains why issues like the deficit, Medicare, crime and higher-paying jobs probably will be joined bya rising volume of “values” discussions in 1996. For it’s the melding of two longterm demographic trends — an erosion of real structuring of the economy, which has had such a dramatic impact on whatpeople earn. Andthat has been paralleled by an equally dra- simply they will turn out at least in the numbers that they turned out in "92," Gans said. “Anotheris that they are sufficiently nonhopeful and theywill not turn out. One wild card is essentially if Dole gets the nomination whether he chooses Colin Powell as his vice president. That changes the equation a lot.” WVoters under 30, the socalled Generation X crowd, defied recent trends and turned out in higher numbersin 1992. Republican pollster Kellyanne Fitzpatrick, at 27 an Xer herself, is doubtful turnout among Xers will be at the 1992 level of 46 percent again next year. income among lower-paid workers, and a fracturing of the family — that forms the cutting edgeofthe politics of discontentin the 1990s There are twopieces of this puzzle that we areall awareof but that we don't frequently put together,” said Ralph Whitehead, a Universityof Massachusettspolitical demographer. ‘One is there- African-Americans turn out proportionate to their numbersin the population, another 1.5 million African-Americans will vote next year. Since blacks tend to vote Democratic by huge margins, this could bea wild card for Clinton in close electoral college battlegroundsin the Midwest and Northeast Curtis Gans, head of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said higher registration itself does not boost turnout “At this point I see either two scenarios for the black vote: One scenario is they are sufficiently fearful of the Republicans that 950s, when Republicans ast controlled Congress, the Electoral College hasshifted heavily toward the SunBelt and the West and so has. center of gravity. Republica 's have made their heaviestgains in the South and West, effectively flipping the country’s political makeup since the daysof Di ht Ei enhower. Democrats have largely becomea party of the Northeast andindustrial Midwest. What you have is older men are very fiscally conservative,” he said. “Theytend to be very critical of federal spending, and want to balance the budget. They want federal spending cut back, but not their Medicare spending.” But women over 65 “are very much Democrats, and therefore Xers “are formingtheir political ideology very differently than ( Taesatil!) Source: GNSresearch, Applied Research Coordinates previous generations, Gannett you will see Democrats all over the country trying to get older women to vote next year.” M About one in three voters next year will be between the ages of 30 and 45. That’s up from one in four in 1980. Despite their dominant cultural templates — the first TV genera- tion, the Vietnam War — baby boomers are far more diverse than their often singular treatment in the media. But they do share certain demographictraits that put them smack in the middle of the fiscal and cultural wars. They are the parents of young children growing upin |e age of which is making them so much morelibertarian,” Fitzpatrick said. Madonnaand gangsta rap. They are the sons and daughtersofparents growing old in the age of Medicare reform. This group of 30- to 45-yearolds could end up mostfrustrated with the political parties next year becauseneither party speaks to the bloc’s broadest concerns. “They don’t have a warto rally around, theydon’t havea foreigncrisis to say, ‘yes I am an American.” “For them to turn out in 1996 has to be a combination of Reagan’s sort of vision, a forwardlooking hopeandoptimism, restoration of the American dream message,” she said. matic restructuring of the fam- ily.” A few demographic trends to watch @ The ‘96 electoratestill will be heavily steered by people with high school diplomasor less edueation, but wherewill theyturn? Less-educated and poorer Americans tend to vote in the smallest percentages, and the education and income gaps are widening. Butby their sheer numbers, those with high-school di- ashing Pumpkins Mellon Collie And The infinite Sadness plomas or less still carry a huge 42 percent of the 1992 presiden- tial votes werecast by peoplewith family income under $30,000 Between 1979 and 1993, real income of the average male high- school graduate fell 30 percent while the average female highInstitute. It has not gotten better under President Clinton, the EPI says, despite Clinton's campaign promisesto raise incomeandeducation levels for American work- VinceGill Souvenirs They are up for grabs in Pee The Bridge ers 1994. Alice In Chains TheRolli Stones . Stripped ee Woeete This group of lower-educated Americans makes up much of the angry center” of the past two elections. They favored Clinton and helped la inch Ross Perot in 1992, but turaed to congressional Republicans or stayed home in Fresh Horses THTriaa We've Got The electoral punch, casting 45 percent of the votes in 1992. About school income fell by 18 percent, according to the Economic Policy Garth Brooks Anthology & LOW Prices! Meat Loaf Welcome To The Neighborhood 1996, especially those under50. Voters born after 1945 who do not hold four-year college degrees are extremely important,” Whiteheadsaid. They are “deeply worried about their economic and social future. Theyare the people who are getting squeezed byboth p. the restructuring of the family and the restructuring of the work force. And most of these voters Silverchair Frog \gstomp are convinced that neither politi- cal partyis able to help them.” RuyTeixeira, a political demographer for the liberal Economic Policy Institute, said lowincome and low-educated voters Mariah Carey on Henley Actual Miles Henley's Daydream Greatest Hits are generally moved morebyeco- nomic issues built around better jobs than balancing the budget They are more [angry] at the government because they think the government is wasting their tax money,” Teixeira said He said Clinton is appealing to Frank Sinatr this groupby “betting that he can play this Medicare-Medicaid Sinatra 80thLive In Concert thing and have the pointer [of Ozzmosis blame] point to the Republicans in 1996, despitethe fact that nothing has improved” in real incomelevels under Clinton @A key voting bloc — those PRICES EFFECTIVE THRU 1/6/96 over 65 — has watched its New Deal and Great Society entitle- ments become objects of a game of political chicken between Re. publicans and Democrats. They are nervous, trending Democrat, and the most likely of any age group to turn out next year. If past election trends hold about one in five 1996 voters will be over 65. When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980, that ratio was onein six. Older Americans “are leaning Democratic, although [in October and November] they wereleaning very strongly Democratic,”’ said Guy Molyneaux, a pollster for Garin-Hart research, a leading Democabtic firm. * Ourlow price quarantee does not apply whenthe rice includes bonus or tree offers, special financing Instaltation. or manutacturers rebate. of to competitors ‘ne-of-#-kindor other limited quantity otters ‘SEE STORE FOR DETAILS . vee 1340 E. Park Centre Or Salt Lake City \ jou 360 W esi wad South Orem t | We 9 “ i sate Rd. 1093 16 Re toa load came Riverdale Sait Lake City ne = eritelhg CITY. eetoe t on] ert moe —— ; en . eS Pail c —___ SEIS ¢ ee > = TAYAWAY AND FINANCING AVAILABLE. Rie | |