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Show [Al4 The Salt Lake Tribune NATION/WORLD Sunday, December26,1999 Genetics: Lodestar of Medicine’s Future 21st-century medical treatments hinge on genetic breakthroughs, experts say ‘THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Crystal-ball gazing is a risky hobby at best — butit is hard to think of an area where the uncertainties are greater than in the realm ofmedicine. Just a generation ago, who would have predicted that sur- geons would someday take out gallbladders without making big incisions, that genetic manipula- tion would be a routine source of useful drugs, that pills would “lowercholesterol, grow hair and improve sexual performance? “Weare doing things now that ‘ we wouldn't have dreamed ofeven -10 years ago,"’ muses Robert *Bonow, a heart specialist at Northwestern University. “A lot ofthis is unimaginable. Still, some research directions are set and somegoals are clear, and the Associated Press asked experts in several medical spe‘ cialties to make their best guesses about what we can expect in the next 25 or 30 years. Here are their answers. Cancer: Optimism for screening, therapy. Robert Mayer,chiefof the Gas- trointestinal Cancer Center, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston: “I'm very optimistic that we're going to makegreatinroads into cancerprevention. “Developing a vaccine against the hepatitis C virus will be critically important in preventing liver cancer. The abolition of tobacco will reduce cancer enor- mously,as will the use of prophylactic compounds such as tamoxifen for breast canceror aspirin and folic acid for colon cancer. “Screening technology will also undergo a revolution. Virtual “Mammography for breast cancer will likely improve through computerized technology, and better and more specific blood tests will make screening for prostate cancer more effective. “T hope wewill be ableto refine gene therapy by either replacing an abnormal geneorturning itoff. “Gene therapy mayalso focus on stimulating the body’s own immuneresponse to selectively destroy the tumor, or take advantage of the uniquegenetic pattern in malignantcells to target biological treatments to those cells.” Transplants: Educating the immunesystem. J. Richard Thistlethwaite, chief of transplant surgery, University of Chicago: “First, new surgical techniques will makeit far easier for living donors to give organs or parts of organs to those in need. “The donor shortage has cre- ated a lottery where the winners get transplants and thelosers die. The government and the transplant community are trying to devise schemes to provide equal access. In time, human organ donation will be replaced by transplantation of animal organs. Herds of genetically mutated pigs are being developed to provide organsfor transplant on demand. “Second, new medicines will let us educate the immunesystem to look at a transplanted organ as “self” rather than “nonself.” Medicines today that prevent organ rejection are expensive and dangerous. They suppress all immuneresponses and must be continued for life. Transplant patients are trading one disease for another — organfailure for immunosuppression. Weare close to being able to use short-term therapy to achieve immunetolerance colonoscopy, a very elegant com- so that we can stop all medications. puterized X-ray technique to simulate the appearanceof the colon, will very likely improve patient ease and compliance with this very importanttest. “Finally, we will be able to change organs themselves by transplanting genes to help prevent organ failure and organ rejection. Cell transplants, like nerve cells, rather than organs, will be used to treatillnesses like diabetes and Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s disease. And then the ultimate science fiction dream thatwill become reality will be the ability to clone entire new organs from single cells.” Mental Health: Brain scans will aid diagnosis. Steven Hyman, director, National Institute of Mental Health: “Changes in our approach to mental illness will be among the most revolutionary, compared to other areas of medicine. Right now,diagnoses, while they can be made with relative certainty for illnesses such as depression and schizophrenia, still remain anchored in symptoms and behav- ior. Thirty years from now we're going to have diagnoses based on brain scans, or brain scans plus genetic tests. That will provide a great deal more certainty. “The second thing is, within the next decade, we will have discovered many genes that create vulnerability to mood disorders, to schizophrenia, to autism and to See Next Page NOTICE DUE TO A MANUFACTURER’S SHIPPING DELAY, PAC-MAN AND RUGRATS: TIME TRAVELERS VIDEO GAMES FOR GAME BOY COLOR WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE. RAIN CHECKSWILL BE OFFERED. WEREGRET ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED. 30% OFF SALE EVERYTHINGIN STORE Monday, Dec. 27th seek Saturday, Jan. 8th. 1633 W. 9000 S., WEST JORDAN 561-8726 200 - 500 Find out at RegistrationVillage.com. More alarming than hearing a product you've just given your child has been recalled, is never knowing that something your family uses everyday has been deemed unsafe. But the fact is, the large majority of product recalls never get widely publicized. So how can you guarantee the toys, appliances and products you buy will be safe? 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