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Show yp1 Prpryw pv pry- p pip 0m TPrTryT pm pmiijuJil y yryrryr-pr"fr'- y'r p p'jpmi j fir"yny'pif,yyiy pnprip- - i 'p-p- yrp iiiiiii gnijpipwpupp ijp,0p"pi"frprJfp ptr jp pr- Wednesday, Jan. 9, O Social upheaval possible without nukes (Continued from Page 6) majority of seven Projected future energy sources for the United States wtth specific requirements (Figure 7) are met, not will nuclear expand. On Figure two we have assumed that all of these changes will be made by the OPTIMISTIC OIL&GAS SUPPLIES AND PHASE-OU- T OF NUCLEAR and government nuclear will grow as fast as it is industrially able. For example, we have assumed that the be will breeder introduced in the year 2000 and reactors will be built as speedily as industrial capacity permits, with up to 30 reactors being built each year. noted from Figure six, nuclear As ultimately has an even larger thanenergy coal, but potential up to the year 2025 it will be limited by the ability to build and put power plants on the line. Hydro and Geothermal Utah Power and Light Company has on its system many small c power plants and is currently one of the few utilities in the country seriously investigating the use of geothermal energy. hydro-electri- Despite facilities these and our active participation in them, it does not appear that and hydroelectric energy geothermal will contribute substantially more than they presently do for the total United States. We have, therefore, two on Figure assumed that they stay conapproximately stant through this time span. The basic message of Figure two, then, is that if we adopt severe projections of future As seen on Figure four, nuclear energy expands slightly up through the early 1990s as those nuclear plants now under 4 Figure nuclear this figure is that, based upon present are yr. 3025 In 14) 500 Gas 450 450 Coal 31,000 31.000 Uranium Lwrsonly With Quad 1 ol Energy. Shad GAO ON mid-199- industrial recent necessary This 600.000 05 British Thermal Units. "Other possible large oil and gas sources such as shale oil, tar sands and methane gas may add up to about 5,000 quads. They are not presently economical to recover. includes the breeder reactor. Unfortunately, 75 of percent over our energy use today is in the form of oil and gas, which are minor contributors to our total energy resources. Without energy rapid the expansion of all known to economic seem almost the United States. France, England, It is recognized that Japan, Germany and all energy sources Russia, understand this need and are introduce some health risks to the population as they are expanded; however, it is believed that these risks are far less than the risks expanding by Administration to expansion of nuclear energy, including breeder. radioactive Demonstration by U S Government of long-terwaste storage in at least two sites. Firm commitment indicates Reinstituting development ot fuel reprocessing technology and demonstration ol some process such as CIVEX for reprocessing and use of plutonium fuel. Reinitiating an aggressive fast breeder reactor program, including: 1. Completion of the Clinch River breeder reactor. follow-o- n prototype large breeder reactor similar to the French Greys Malville Project. 3 Introduction of tax incentives for utilities to add early fast time period. breeder reactors in the 2000-201- 0 2. Initiation of a Streamlining the reactor licensing process with objective of reducing overall schedule by 2 to 4 years Continuation and strengthening of government insurance program. Addition of increased enrichment capacity Figure energy. For example, if the Up to the present administration and the time the government Department of Energy has not initiated any of are cori u i, oil and gas the seven steps shown supplies will begin to on Figure 7. taper off before the Figure four shows 2000. our total energy three year Figure r without supplies expansion of nuclear. For this particular hypothesis we have assumed that the optimistic projections of oil and gas supplies continue through the year By 1985 By 1990 By 1995 2000. 102-- Entire Stock of 1 18 GWe 142-1- 71 Coots 186-2- 25 ' A ' fSs sj T SassMi Clogs & Sandals Men's & Women's High Quality starting at r as? KfVVYISl''' Ky All w Farah, Billy the Kid, Wrangler Vests, Jackets and Pants Boys' Suits Heavy Winter Socks Reduced Selected Rubber Winter Footwear CLEARANCE PRICE T U Quh-I- ) Children's S. 99 m - pi- pr. 56 lijst) fnciyu' Dress S Casual Shoes M East Main, Price Phone 637-032- their rapid nuclear expansion two? shows the result of this decrease. In fact, the decreases shown on this figure are not as as some great governmental studies indicate. meaconservation With this pessimistic sures through the year 2025, and if we view of oil and gas more energy resources including nuclear as fast as possible. the by government It is hoped that the with United States will To summarize, it is associated clear that we have inadequate supplies of similarly recognize these urgencies and basic energy. sufficient As one considers the address more resources in coal and nuclear energy to meet problems of energy vigorously the need for the needs of the supply of other nations energy in the future. country well into the 21st century if we Figure 7 Requirements for make wise decisions now which allow rapid Figure seven expansion of both the resources. In addition for to these requirements energy expansion of nuclear sources, we are going energy in the United to need every other States. energy source that The majority of makes economic these requirements sense, including solar would have to be energy and energy implemented in order derived from synthetic for utilties to make a fuels. rational commitment During the transition to start design and period before the coal construction of a and nuclear economy nuclear power plant. matures we are going To date none of these to have to continue to seven requirements rely to a large extent has been implemented on oil and gas. Nuclear Expansion even predicament could be inevitable. deleterious enough to Fortunately, most of threaten the stability the industrialized of the government of nations, including 631,950 34,150 the United the story extent energy supplies by the it practicable appears industrialized nations, likely that the United it is doubtful that the will have States will suffer world economic adequate food and severe wars and revolutions reverses. 2,200 breeder Total 1 domestic resources maximum Quads 500 YEAA Lab In Oil 4 hold conservation from now States, into the next century, becomes if we do not expand our critical: the United States Quantity stringent besides Despite Figure 6 energy energy resources capacity in the United in States. The point of projections, the total nuclear capacity by completed. Protected growth Beyond that point no about 1995 or near the wtth tignd leant coraarvabon (2.35 new nuclear plants are turn of the century will powth to 2000: 1.8yr. from 2000 to 2025) added and the existing be something in excess plants are run until of 200 GWe (1 GWe they are worn out and equals 1,000 MWe). As recently as 1974 are then taken out of service. projections were being The results of this made that showed over lack of nuclear energy 1,000 GWe of nuclear is a shortfall of 47 energy by the turn of The quads by the year 2025. the century. reduction in of these This quantity EMndeoal energy is more than projections has been byatacto'M half the current total the result of significant - MonawnudMr energy usage in the delays in nuclear plant and PiaMrtrakM construction United States. OttmdgMMi It is so large that if reduction in new an energy shortfall orders. For each 1,000 NW of were to exist in this nRBroohhavn Co. Stodtoa Op. United the nuclear magnitude capacity States would be thrown approximatley 30,000 expand all the known supplies it is seen that into chaos. It is barrels of oil per day practical energy by the year 2025 there doubtful that our are saved. sources as quickly as is a shortfall of 12 government could we know how, our quads in our total continue to exist as we Recoverable Energy supplies will just meet energy supply. This now know it. Wars and our demands. shortfall commences revolutions have been Figure six shows the To reach this in the early to fought over lesser economically recoverable energy resources balanced state of and expands to issues. the 12 and Since the value by energy supply energy in the United States. quad demand will require 2025. These are the shortage is paramount in this particular resources which we positive commitment PhaseOut Nuclear of both scenario it is useful to know the have private and In view of recent speculate what might potential for economic government resources development, it occur in the early use within the time to the utilization of all becomes important to years the frame of the next 50 when our energy sources. consider becomes shortfall another years or so. It is clear that the major sources scenario in which apparent. Oil and Gas of nuclear energy is not five shows energy are coal and Figure allowed to expand. nuclear, if nuclear some But what if some of Let us assume, for our energy supplies example, that the are not available in as government does not large a quantity as we take the steps shown need, based on the for demand curve in expansion of nuclear construction Economically recoverable 1980 Vvvv'PfY 0 :Zi |