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Show DAILY AS HERALD Sunday, December 9. 2007 CAMPAIGN 2008 race among Democrats It's still a three-wa- y Steven thomma in 4 in South Carolina, but only 1 in 10 in Iowa. "The Democratic race is quite WASHINGTON Whipsawed by competitive," said Brad Coker, the an increasingly heated campaign, pollster for Mason-Dixo- n Polling and Research, which conducted the Democrats in Iowa and other early surveys. "We've seen a tightening in voting states are closely divided over which of their three top candi- Iowa Obama's gained ground in New dates to support, according to a new Hampshire. And South Carolina is close, as well." series of polls for McClatchy and The contest is closest in Iowa, MSNBC where the voting begins Jaa 3 in The surveys suggest that the town meeting-lik- e and Democratic race is so close precinct caucuses. hangs on the candidates' resumes and Clinton has the support of 27 percent of likely caucus attendees, Obama 25 personalities as much as it does on issues that any of them could win or percent, and Edwards 21 percent. All other candidates were in single finish third. Sea Hillary Clinton of New York digits, not enough to survive a caucus rule that requires support from 15 retains an edge in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but her lead percent of those attending to win a in all three is shrinking compared to delegate. If their supporters switch to sec- - , earlier surveys. Sen Barack Obama of Illinois is candidates, the poll found close on Clinton's heels in all three they'd split evenly among Clinton, states, and former Sea John Edwards Edwards and Obama. In New Hampshire, Clinton polled of North Carolina is close behind 30 percent, Obama 27 percent and EdObama in Iowa but farther back in wards 10 percent. New Hampshire and South Carolina. In South Carolina, Clinton led with No other candidate for the Demo28 percent, Obama had 25 percent at cratic nomination comes close and Edwards 18 percent. least not yet though once the votThe error margin for each state ing starts, things can change fast, and 1 in 5 Democratic voters remains survey. was plus or minus 5 percentundecided in New Hampshire and 1 age points. MCCLATCHY newspapers - ond-choi- Clinton's strengths: women, older voters, and those who want experience, call the economy or health care their top issue and want to withdraw from Iraq gradually. Her weaknesses: young voters and those who rank honesty the top quality in a candidate. Obama's base: men, younger voters, those who want a new approach to politics, a winner against the Republicansjor who call the environment their top concern. His weakness: those who want experience. Edward appeals to Iowans who rank honesty their top concern and those who want an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. His weaknesses: men, older voters and those who want to keep at least some troops in Iraq. A key divide for Democrats is the question of change versus experience. Nearly one of five Iowa Democrats says the most important trait they're seeking in a nominee is experience. Those voters support Clinton by 10-- 1 over Obama and by 1 over Edwards. Clinton's advantage on experience was similar or greater in the other states. "She knows how Washington works," said Sharon Lee, a retired 5-- HOW WE POLL teacher from Ankeny, Iowa. "Obama doesnt have the experience. As a Democrat, I'd rather save him for Poll is a The McClatchy-MSNBsnapshot of voter opinion at the time it was conducted. It isn't a prediction of how people will vote on Election Day. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. That means that 95 percent of the time, the correct numbers could be as many as 5 percentage points above the poll's percentage point findings, or as many as 5 percentage points below them. The remaining 5 percent of the time, the correct numbers could vary even more. The Mason-Dixo- n poll of 400 t likely caucus attendees or primary voters in each state was conducted Those inby telephone from Dec. terviewed were selected by a random variation of telephone numbers from a cross section of telephone exchanges. That means that anyone in the state with a phone line had the same odds of being called as anyone else, except for people who use cell phones only. Cellphone numbers are not in the C later." Yet a competing slice of Democrats one of five says the most important quality is change and a new approach to politics. And "change" voters in Iowa prefer Obama by 1 over Clinton and 2 over Edwards. Obama's edge on change was similar in the other two states. "I really want change, in health care, in Iraq," said Katie Miller, a state employee from Portsmouth, N. H. "I want a new perspective, not politics as usual He's got fresh new ideas. ... She's part of the old boy network." Another dividing line is age. Clinton leads among Iowa Democrats older than 50; Obama leads among those younger than 50. "The rule of thumb is that those over 50 will turn out for a caucus even if there's two feet of snow," Coker said. "On the ground, Clinton will have . an easier time turning out her supporters. Obama has a harder task. But if he can figure out how to turn out young people, that is how Obama 2-- could 3-- exchanges. The sampling margin of error doesn't include other variables that could affect results, including the way questions are worded or the order in which they're asked. wia" Huckabee Continued from Al Romney by only 3 percentage points among Iowa Republicans who said they weren't born again. History suggests that the winner of the Iowa caucus often roars into primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina with a blast of momentum that can all but ensure the party's nomination. Huckabee's lead exceeds the poll's error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points. That would seem to crown him as the undisputed GOP frontrunner in Iowa less than four weeks before voters IV I caucus there. But Huckabee could be peakhis sudden lead ing too soon is likely to mean that his rivals will target him for attack in ads, debates and speeches, and some 19 percent of GOP voters in Iowa remain undecided. The news media, too, are likely to intensify their scrutiny. The harsher reality for Huckabee could be visible on Wednesday, when the candidates debate in y ft r" it ' ' ' ' . Jv Des Moines. Ji'i";::; Brad Coker, th6 managing director of Mason-Dixo- n Polling and Research, which conducted the survey, thinks that Huckabee could turn off many conservatives because his stand on immigration isn't as hard-lin- e as others and because he raised taxes in Arkansas. In the other early voting states, Huckabee is still introducing himself to voters. In the McClatchy-MSNBsurvey of New Hampshire, which votes on Jaa 8, he was a distant fourth. Romney was first there with 25 percent, followed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17 percent, Arizona Sea John McCain at 16 percent and Huckabee with 11 percent. Some 17 percent were undecided. ALAN Rep. Charles Taylor, MARLERAssociated Press applauds as Republican presidential hopeful, former Arkansas Oov. Mike Huckabee, speaks in Asheville, N.C., on Saturday. C Huckabee, however, also lead over scored a Romney, 20-1- 7 percent, in South Carolina, which votes Jaa 19, in a third McClatchy-MSNBsurvey. Add it all up and Huck'abee's the man of the hour among GOP candidates, but his surge is suspect. "His Iowa numbers are impressive. But look at New Hampshire, where you don't have that evangelical Christian base," said Coker. Romney's slippage in Iowa was at least as significant because he's losing support from the voters he's courted most social conservatives who closely examine candidates' views on "values issues." He tried to win them back on Thursday with a heavily publicized speech in Texas on his Mormon faith, but it appeared' to make little difference to evangelical voters. Huckabee, too, emphasizes conservative social values; last week he announced the formation of an Iowa Pastors Coalition consisting of dozens of clergymea C "I'm a Christian," said Trent Rinderknecht, a student from Van Home, Iowa, "and I hope Huckabee will make Christian high-scho- . . decisions." While Romney retains his New Hampshire lead, the McClatchy-MSNBpoll suggests that it's shrinking fast compared to earlier surveys, in which his average lead in Toxic toys Continued fromAl paint standards to lead found anywhere in products. Congress also has raised concerns that there are too few inspectors to keep up with the avalanche of imported products. Earlier this year, the federal government raised concerns about lead in products imported from China, which was identified earlier this year for importing toys containing lead. But some of the toys with high levels of lead in the Ecology Center's test were made in the United States. One tested doll had 4,300 parts per million lead in its hand and arm more than seven times the recall standard if it had been painted The decades-ol- d federal paint standard triggers a recall if found in toys. The American Academy of Pediatrics advocates a much lower level 40 ppm to protect children. f Overall the Ecology Center tests found lead in more than a third of the sampled products. Lead levels were 600-pp- ary and has a home in New HOW WE POLL Hampshire. Even if wins there, Romney will confront the evangelical tide again 11 days later in South Carolina's primary, where 63 per- . Poll is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time it was conducted. It isn't a prediction of how people will vote on Election Day. The Mason-Dixo- n poll of 400 likely caucus attendees or primary voters in each state was conducted by telephone from Dec. 3-- 6. Those interviewed were selected by a random variation of telephone numbers from a cross section of telephone exchanges. That means that anyone in the state with a phone line had the same odds of being called as anyone else, except for people who use cell phones only. Cell phone numbers are not in the exchanges. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. That means that 95 percent of the time, the correct numbers could be as many as 5 percentage points above the poll's percentage point findings, or as many as 5 percentage points below them. The remaining 5 percent of the time, the correct numbers could vary even more. The sampling margin of error doesn't include other variables that could affect results, including the way questions are worded or the order in which they're asked. The McClatchy-MSNB- C C late November was almost 16 points, according to Romney's well especially high in metal jewelry from dollar stores. The testing also showed high levels of cadmium, mercury and arsenic in some toys, as well as polyvinyl chloride, which often has chemical additives that can leach out of the plastic. Just 28 percent of the toys were free of metals and chemicals sought in the tests. The center med y fluorescence equipment, which measures lead and other substances on the surface and up to deep on the toy. The center cautioned that the results aren't definitive, since different batches of the same toy, or toys made at different times, may have different suppliers. Most testing was done this year; some jewelry was tested in 2006. Some companies voluntarily recall toys when they become aware they have high levels of lead or chemicals, but except for lead paint, it's not required by law. A Toys 'R' Us spokeswoman said Tuesday that the company Investigates any reports of lead or other toxic materials in its products. There are no government recall RealClear-Politics.co- known to the state's voters since he governed the state next door from 2003 until Janu standards for mercury, arsenic and phthalates, a class of chemicals added to plastic to soften it. "The point is not to alarm parents, but to make them aware that these things are in toys and the government and manufacturers are not telling them about it," said Tracey East-hopproject director for the Ecology e, Center. Teething rings, rattles, backpacks, dolls, jewelry, shoes, play mats, bath toys, baby books and crib toys were among the items the Ecology Center, with some help from environmental groups in other states, tested. Tests on 523 pieces of children's jewelry, such as charms and necklaces, found 37 percent contained lead. Some jewelry was 90 percent lead. In the United States and other countries, some children have died after swallowing jewelry with high lead levels. A study published in November said small amounts of lead are more dangerous to the brains of small children than previously thought and can damage their IQs. Besides paint, lead was found in fabric and plastic toy parts, said Jeff cent consider themselves born-agai-n Christians. Huckabee leads in South Carolina with 20 percent, followed by Giuliani at 17 percent, Romney at 15 percent and Thomp- son at 14 percent. Eighteen percent were undecided. Voters who identified themselves as see the complete survey results, go to: born-agaipreferred Huckabee I Jowa Republicans: www. to Romney by 24 to 16 percent, mcclatchydc.comstaticipdf with 13 percent for Giuliani and poW1207iowagop.pdf 14 percent for Thompson t New Hampshire Voters in New Hampshire Republicans: www. and South Carolina last week mcclatchydc.comstaticpdf said they'd be watching Iowa poW1207nhgop.pdf I South Carolina closely as they make up their minds. Republicans: www. James Myles, a Newbury, mcclatchydc.comstaticpdf N.H. retiree, leans toward Rom polU1207scgop.pdf To n Gearhart, campaign director for the Ecology Center. These are some of the toys that showed high levels of lead: A giraffe from a My Pasture play set at 6,733 ppm. t Tyrell Katz vinyl backpack, 7,132 ppm. I Circo shoes, 5,197 ppm. I A Starletz Dinner Party tea set, with tiny cups and saucers, 12,635 ppm. The risk is greatest for children younger than 6, who are most likely to put toys in their mouths or play with toys and then put their hands in their mouths. East hope said generalizations can't be made about toys made in China. Toys for the study came from stores such as Target, Babies "R" Us, Dollar Tree and Tree Town Toys. "We did find safe toys, so it's clear that these chemicals and metals arent necessary," East hope said. Martha Perry, 34, said her mom bought her daughter, Isabella, a Elmo toy that she absolutely loved earlier this year. But the toy was recalled She noted Spanish-sp- eaking . ney but is troubled by how "he's like a palm tree that shifts in the breeze" because he's changed many of his more liberal views since he was governor. Myles remains undecided. In South Carolina, Suzanne Stewart, the owner of a machinery moving and rigging business in Greer, listed herself as currently preferring Romney, but, she said, "It seems like a lot of things are unfolding." that it was made in China. "We're absolutely not buying any toy that says it's made in China," she said Dr. Ted Schettler, a public and environmental health specialist with the Science and Environmental Health Network, said there is virtually no regulation of what's in children's toys. "The Consumer Product Safety Commission argues that their job is not to test every toy that comes into the U.S., and they're not doing that or even beginning to be equipped to do that," he said "Obviously, there's not any screening going on at the borders as there is supposed to be for other types of products." He said that if a child's toy is recalled for lead or is found to contain other chemicals, the best thing to do is remove it from the home. "It's always a good idea to have kids screened for lead," Schettler said. "If you ... have a high lead level, you can start looking for the sources of it." The center's full report and database of tested toys is available at www.heakhytoys.org. . |