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Show 2005: Utah economic adviser confident TREE" IN-HOME ESTIMATES SHUTTE1S FAUX WOOD 2' &. 2 l / r SLATS COMI'OSl w Available MDF &t Bass Wood 1 WEEK DEUVERY * E I • 7 Colon •2 S U M • 3 Valance Style) • t Week Delivery ~~ " Sec Srorc tor Detail* i 2 1/2"-3 1/2"-4 1/2" $45 0 0 + 24"X>6 - Single O i l • 3 Cell Sues • I OO'i of Colon • Energy Efficient •low Mainwncncc -Top Down • Bonrm up Skylights • Fast Delivery VE1TICALS $40 00 $95 24'XJ6" 00 $80 00+ 2-TX36" Av.iilable •13 I'anemi •100 Colon •Sky Lights - Anjjle Window* • Room Darkening • Archei •Fait Delivery- -Tear Drop •Top Down Bottom-Up •Cordloi •9 Patterns • SO Color* OK.V-tH Patio Doot Slie 75"XM" •Several Colon • Valance Extra * Cord Control or Wand No Extra Charge ; 1 Week Delivery • FUJI Delivery Repairs Available • Sales end January 18,2005 OREM 225-6977 [SALT LAKE1 I Mon-Fri i 9-5:3O OGDEN SHOWROOM 2432 So. State 732-1666 9 0 DAYS 487-5662 Sat . SAME AS CASH. |AII title companies offer the same services... !Not all title companies offer the same GREAT service f -•• '~J: COMPANY • . ' ' ' " : ' j TITLE CITY i Wed/Thurs/Fri, January 5-7, 2005 The Park Record A-12 \ : PARK ! A step above the rest 649-8322 SALT LAKE CITY (AP) The state's incoming senior economic adviser to Gov.-clect Jon Huntsman Jr. says things are looking up for Utah's economy in 2005 after three uneasy years. "We are in the midst of that analysis right now," says Chris Roybal, who stepped down Friday as chief executive of the nonprofit Economic Development Corp. of Utah. "But my sense is that the 2005 economic, outlook is very positive." The new Republican governor, son of multibillionaire Utah petrochemical industrialist Jon Huntsman Sr., is inheriting a pretty good start. In 2004, Utah's economy reversed years of employment stagnation or loss by creating nearly 32,000 new jobs _ a 2.9 percent annual growth rate roughly twice the national average. Huntsman campaigned on economic improvement, and has vowed to make it his singular focus. He plans to reform the state's moribund tax code and hopes to lure businesses by simplifying taxes, giving breaks to small business, cutting capital gains taxes and matching other states' economic incentives. Kelly Matthews, Wells Fargo's executive vice president and economist, predicts continued steady growth in 2005 - particularly if oil prices dip and economic and political unrest curb abroad. With those caveats, Matthews projects jobs to grow 2.8 percent, adding just under 30,900 workers. He predicted overall unemployment would average about 4.9 percent. Total construction value - at nearly $5.2 billion in 2004 - is expected to settle around $4.9 billion in the new year. Mark Knold, senior economist with The Utah Department of Workforce Services, also warns a return to higher oil prices could stifle growth. He sees job creation actually slowing in early 2005 before picking up midyear. "The economic outlook for Utah looks good, but not great/' he says, blaming high energy costs, expiration of business investment depreciation Uix credits, and the ripple effect from a lackluster stock market. Roybal says Huntsman wants to be a "catalyst"'for such economic growth. The governor likoly will sanction trade missions abroad, meet himself with potential investors and work behind the scenes to facilitate local, stale and federal regulatory and funding resources. "We expect to see opportunities from both an entrepreneurial standpoint and the ability of companies to expand or locate here," Roybal says. "We will recruit outside the state. There are a number of industry sectors on the verge, at critical mass" for investing in Utah. Will consumers shop or stop this year? NEW YORK (AP) Maybe retailers shouldn't be too giddy about their successes this holiday season. While consumers came through with their buying this time around, will they keep up the pace into next year? That's not to say that there are expectations for consumers to cut back their spending anytime soon, Hut there are certainly concerns over what is going to spur them to keep those pursestrings loose going forward. Personal savings have been drawn down. Higher interest rates are raising debt costs. And there is little if any stimulus for spending out there. So it's no wonder there are worries mounting over whether consumers who have shopped and shopped might finally be ready to drop. How this plays ,out will not only affect retailers' profits but also will greatly determine where the economy goes from here. That's because consumers, who make up about two-thirds of all economic activity, have helped keep the economy's engines going in the years since the stock market collapse and terrorist attacks. For more than a year, their buying has been expected to slow. But that has yet to happen, even though higher energy prices, among other things, has cut their disposable income. In fact, the all-important holiday shopping season - which accounts for half the annual revenues for some retailers - turned out to be fairly healthy despite a slow start. Sales gains are expected to come in around a modest, yet respectable, 2.5 percent to 3 percent, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. And consumers haven't yet given any indication that they will change their ways in 2005. A widely watched indicator of consumer confidence jumped in December to its highest level since July, with consumers clearly saying that they are upbeat about the prospects for the next six months. That's not so surprising. As the economics team at Goldman Sachs notes in a recent report, there is still strength in the housing market, with prices rising 56 percent in real terms since 1995. In addition, oil prices are down more than 20 percent from a high of $55 a barrel reached in late October and there are signs that the labor market is improving. Still, not everyone is convinced that this shopping spree can continue. Consider a recent research report by Merrill Lynch chief North American economist David Rosenberg with the title: "Consumer Outlook: Is this the cat on its 9th life?" His view is that the stimulus valves - such as low interest rates, tax breaks and the mortgage cash-out craze - that consumers have been able to tap in the past five years are drying up. And there isn't much left in the latest - and maybe last - valve, what he calls an "unprecedented drawdown" in personal savings. While consumer spending has grown at a nearly 4 percent average annual rate over the last decade, the personal savings rate has been tiny, averaging well under half a percent - a steep drop from the 5 percent it was back in 1995. That means consumers are spending virtually all of their income, though that figure does not factor in home appreciation or retirement savings. And whei^ Rosenberg looks back at historical data he finds that, after such a massive savings drop in the past, consumer spending tends to slow by nearly 2 percentage points in the next few quarters. He also worries thai incomes are beginning to lag behind inflation. Real average weekly earnings fell 0.4 percent in November and are down 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, according to the Labor Department. Outside of declines associated with weather-related incidents, that is the weakest trend since mid-1991 - and in the past, that led to six subsequent months of flat retail sales, Rosenberg said. There is also the concern of what a slowdown in the housing market could do to spending. Much of the recent buying has been fueled by the perceived wealth that consumers have experienced, thanks to the dramatic increases in the prices of their homes. But what happens to that if housing prices soften and mortgage rates rise significantly? Ultimately, the slowdown in spending might not be the choice of consumers. Should the economy's engines kick into high gear, the Federal Reserve could step up the pace of its tightening of interest rates in order to cool things down - and that could cause consumers to cut back. Of course, no one should be too quick to write off consumers. They've proven themselves very resilient time and again. www.parkrecord.com www.parkrecord.com www.parkrecord.com www.parkrecord.com Rne Cigars and Accessories i, AJfAKtL.XZirr.tik Oa»tSi-' for Wine and Spirits Texas Hold'em Tournaments -weeWy wine tasting ' school .,;...;...: ~wine<eOar ' ' V" ; ..; construction - 'r;-; No Limit Single Table Shoot-outs! At The Yarrow Hotel - cooling & racking systems - stemware, cork screws, decanters, etc at Silver Lake Every Tuesdays and Thursdays, 5:30pm-Midnight Come join us for food, drinks and fun!! Initial entry fee includes pizza and sodas Prizes awarded to winners nightly!! All skill levels welcome. 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