Show t IMPACT IMPACTs s r issue will be resolved constructively constructively constructively if we allow our appraisal of the economic outlook to be thrown first one way then the theother theother theother other four times times' a year as Gross National Product figures are released Yet exactly this seems to be happening now in Washington Perceptions of f current trends trends' in the economy based largely on the daily flow of statistics out of Washington n play playa a large role in the ongoing drama dram of national economic policy form form- lation Let one of the important important important tant statistical series either zig or zag and we hear loud calls caUs for the government to do something to put us back on the right track The results are not always constructive while we do need objective measures for guidance the existing statistics statistics statistics sta sta- sta- sta are often not adequate to bear the burden placed on them News that national output grew at an astonishing 15 75 per percent percent percent cent in the first quarter of this year has prompted a new wave wave of optimism one might almost say exhilaration among economy economy economy my watchers It seems seems time to issue a warning Dont Don't take these statistics all alf that serious serious- ly And dont don't be too disturbed if the statistics for the second quarter which we will see year goes on are another What we see as abrupt swings in the economys economy's growth rate from one quarter to another may be accidental quirks in the he sta sta- sta- sta Consider the history of these same quarterly statistics during the recovery period from last years year's recession In Octo mid ber 1975 when there was still some debate as to whether the recovery was strong or sustainable sustainable sus sus- the figures for the third quarter were released They showed an astonishingly sharp rebound of total output The result Was instant euphoria we we were on our way to better better better bet bet- ter things no doubt about it But the preliminary results for the fourth quarter released in January 1976 created the opposite kind of mood Growth had slowed down to an annual rate not riot much more than we need to keep pace with the in increase increase increase in- in crease in working population Immediately there was wasa a a widespread widespread widespread wide wide- spread mood of doubt and worry We were told that the recovery was was nin waning running ing out of steam and government would have to move in with new measures of stimulation if we were to avoid sinking again into recession In mid-April mid the data for first quarter 1976 appeared |