| Show AUTHENTIC STATEMENT social to THE EXPRESS BABSON DISCUSSES BUSINESS CYCLES BABSON PARK FLORIDA feb 6 0 1 I dont believe in A universal natis business i ne ss C cycle acle I 1 do believe I 1 in n many 1 a n y BU business iness cycles under newton newtons New tons s law of action and reaction business cycles are lire inevitable with human na ture as it is many business cycle cycles when b someone tells you I 1 docs does not believe in the business cycle it is because he pinned his faith on one business cycle and tried tomitake the time barne cycle apply to the stock market interest rates real estate labor manufacturing etc not only do all all the above h have a ve their own cycles but different f industries may have different cycles for instance wheat has a 0 9 6 year cycle iron and steel a 6 year cycle auto mobiles a 13 year cycle cylle etc the main ain cycles although there may be a score of different cycles all working at the same time 90 per cent of the readers of this colun column tri are tied up with five main cycles these ese are 1 the 35 year cycle which applies to agriculture weather insect pests etc ewery every other 33 35 yeara years the cycle is very severe hence some talk also about a 70 year cycle and others about a year ayele cycle the cycle which affects us all is 2 the approximate 8 9 10 year I 1 cycle every other ten years this cycle is especially pronounced 0 noun ced ced hence some f talk k about 3 the 20 year cycle this particularly applies to real estate new building wholesale prices and general business although os as above stated different lines of business vary as to when their special 20 year cycle starts and ends edward 11 DL dewcy wey who is perhaps the b best t ilina living authority on cycles shows th that at a 9 1 1 10 0 year a cycle ce applies to forestry t or t rye fish fish clife life ozone za n e supply atmospheric electricity t y and psychological chang cs ain in our desires and ambitions stock market cycle cycles two other cammon common cycles a are re the 42 month cycle and the related 6 year cycle this last is the cycle used in the ad kenda genda of my autobiography recently published by harper and brothers of new york city here I 1 show how hov 2000 invested d in 1901 in the dow jones stocks approximately according to this cycle could as subsequently adjusted to include latest data amount to over today without borrowing a penny this Is known as its the chapin hoskins cycle and appears in records ot of barometric pressure sun spots tree rings certain commodity prices and the sales of some 23 leading U S corporations of course all brokers ridicule this C cycle le theory it if too many ot of theire thear customers bought stocks only once in six years they would starve to death ev even e n the mutual investment funds which last year did business of cannot afford to go without dividends for three years ears while waiting for the market ket to drop besides their sponsors could not support a sale sales force under such conditions sell control and operating under any cycle the theory ory requires great self con tr arol 1 and patience it requires selling when the government brokers and magazines are bullish likewise it requires buying when everyone Is discouraged and sees no hope lor for stocks at any price on the other hand those who do so operate on this cycle 1 e th theory e y perform a great cylc public u 1 i c Is service e r v ofa e in helping to level out business and employment conditions some conservative bankers do not believe in any cy cycle cle theory because it misses once la in a while when different cycles conflict furthermore although they admit it might have worked under a gold standard it cannot be depended upon they claim with a planned econ 0 omy m y and paper raper money meney my a answer to them Is that they can operate on an actuarial basis the same as insurance companies dp stock losses can bo im averaged the same as can fires accidents and deaths |
