| Show I 1 nd Trade Betterment 4 r Is Predicted for New Year Money Rates Rate's Expected to Work Wok Lower and Investment Investment In In- nI n- n I vestment Securities Higher I Th The annual revIew w of 1921 and the J. J A. A Hogle Co says The acute acut liquidation commenced during the later half halt of 1920 contin contin- continued continued tied without Intermission during the entire year of 1921 As a a. result of ot this bank banIt panK reserves have increased bank banle loans have nave decreased frozen credits have been thawed out Interest rates have tall fallen en and interest bearing se se- se have steadily risen In value The year 1921 will be remembered as one of liquidation depression and partial readjustment accompanied by all the characteristics incident to such periods Including curtailment o of production pro pro- unemployment numerous bus bus- iness mess failures greatly reduced business busi busi- I ness profits and anti passing of ot many divi divi- The postwar peak of prices was reached In March 1920 This was followed fol fol- lowed by an uninterrupted price de decline decline de- de cline dine which culminated In July 1921 The past five mont months montis s have given sat sat- evidence of business betterment better better- sat sat-I ment and of price stabilization air though Irregularities still exist PRICE V ANCE During the first six months of 1921 bond prices were irregular with the trend slightly upward During the last half of the year the advance has been rapid with but few small temporary temporary tem tern reactions A A year ago high grade long time timo bonds were wore selling on a 11 H 1 per cent higher interest basis than they are today As is usual under such conditions the tendency y has been for the stock market to follow the bond market upward Many stocks recorded record record- ed new high prices for tor the year during dur ing December The rise in price of ot stocks may be attributed first to easy money second to better business conditions con COI con con- and prospects for further Im tm- provement The surplus of copper Is being rapidly rapid rapid- ly depleted and the prospect is that most of the producers will open at 50 per cent capacity by April This has already been discounted on the stock market Few of the big copper mines can make profits sufficient for dividends divi divi- dividends under 80 SO per cent capacity pro pro- This figure cannot be attained until the buying power of Europe is restored Consequently It would woula seem that copper stocks are now sellin as high as conditions warrant With raw sugar selling In Cuba well under 2 cents it would seem that durIng during during dur dur- ing the next three months sugar stocks should see their worst times The drop i In Ia price from 20 cents to less than 2 should cents correct the situation by curtailing production We believe that sometime during 1922 sugars will begin to recover THE TIlE FUTURE PROSPECT Undoubtedly there are many Important important tant factors working toward better business for the coming comin- year such as the work of the disarmament conference conference conference confer confer- ence the settlement of the Irish question question ques ques- tion the prospect of a compromise on the German reparations the revision of the tho working rules by the railway la labor la- la bor board the reduction of the copper surplus the Increase over 45 per cent in the building trades and the he easing of money rates There are however certain Important Important important Im Im- im- im readjustments yet to come be before be- be before fore tore real prosperity may mav be expected It is estimated that business at ores ores- ent cot is 15 per cent below normal as compared with 20 per cent in July It Is this last 15 per cent or 20 per cent that makes all the difference between a depression and a boom During the war our factories farms and mines were expanded to such an extent that we are now dependent on foreign n markets markets mar mar- for consumption of a considerable surplus if we are to maintain their In Industries industries In- In at capacity Instead of increasing in increasing increasing in- in creasing our foreign trade is falling off oft at a very rapid rate In rate November November November No No- vember recorded the low point since August 1915 In our opinion some method must be devised so that we can ca'n Import goods from Europe Unless Unless Unless Un Un- less we can import from these countries countries countries coun coun- tries there Is no method by which they can an purchase our goods nor goods nor even pay us for goods sold them on credit Large Imports will be accompanied by the gradual reduction of prices and labor However to reduce both inthe Inthe in inthe the same fame proportion does not affect the standard of living one ono way or the other The further our commodity prices are reduced the better position position position tion we are In to enter the world markets markets markets mar mar- In competition with other na na- na- na The usual method of prescribing ing log for a better foreign trade is to deviso a system for Increasing Increasing- I exports In our opinion this is to put effect before canie As the situation exists outlook for 1 1922 22 Issued issue yesterday y by a at t present If f the Imports are Increased the export trade will follow as a matter mat mat- t ter of course D DISPARITY IN IX PRICES The j factor r next net in importance to o our ur declining foreign trade working a against a quick revival of ot business Is t the he disparity that exists between the c cost ost of farm products and of ot manu manu- f products The prices of oC farm I have ha e declined so much mor t than han th the prices of manufactured pries prod- prod i u that farmers who constitute more I t than han a. a quarter a-quarter of ot our consumers are u unable to buy more than about half o or ot f what they normally bu buy This re re- re s in closed or half hal closed mills and mis u unemployment This disparity between t the he price of farm products and of f manufactured products cannot be wiped put o out ut quickly it will no not disappear I unil untIl un un- un- un t til il wages freight rates and rents are r reduced educed to coincide with the prices the f farmer armer receives The only other solution tion ion t would be to raise the price of f farm arm products until the proper balance I I is s reached This we consider a able ble Only Oly two other times In the last 1 10 years have havo commodity prices and wages reached the Peak peek the they attained L I in c 1920 In each of these three cases ases I It t wa was the result of war The first t took ook Te place during the war of 1812 which was in reality Americas America's par par- t in the Napoleonic war the second was during the Civil Civi war and t the he third was the result resul of the World war Each of the two previous great price increases was followed by a thirty thir thir- ty t y years' years period of ot irregularly falling prices For this reason among many others we bel believe eye that prices will tend I wi for a number of years to work to lower low low- er levels PRO PROBLEMS LEUS TO CONSIDER The two Important problems are anc t then a The revival of our foreign trade i which includes tariff revision b The readjustment of wages freight rates and rents to conform I to the thc returns received b by the farmer In addition additon to these factors there are arc several of or lesser Importance chief 0 of which Is the tax tx problem The Tho recen recent revision of our tax laws was not a t success The new law is an improvement Improvement improvement Improve improve- ment on the old In several respects but on the whole is disappointing tc to I everybody Sooner or later tax laws law that are equitable and Just and which will wi not hamper and discourage mate business must be enacted The year 1922 will wi be one of ot moderate moderate ate business activity Plant ties tes will wi not except In isolated In instances in- in stances be fully utilized and industries Indus indus- tries will wi not be bo called caled upon to bor bet row now money or set aside funds out o of ot I earnings with wih which to finance stone Business profits will wi seek In In vestment channels and although the they V did not aggregate more than five bil lion In 1921 may reach the the seven bil hil bl- bl lion lon mark In 1922 Notwithstanding bilon bi- bi the fact that the United States mus must I be the chief chef reservoir of capital fo for the world for tor some time to come eu our capital accumulations may be expectEd expected expect expect- ed Ed to exceed the demand According ly money rates will wil worl lower an Investment securities hl higher her Tle The New Year finds the stock marIet mar roar ket Icet Iet reflecting considerable optimism optimist 0 for the business outlook of 1922 W We 0 believe beleve the Improvement will wIl occur r but so slowly that many investors investor S 'S SI will bo be disappointed This will probably probably I- I to ably time cause cUse sizeable sizeable- reactions from time tim m MINNEAPOLIS FLOUR FU MINNEAPOLIS Dec 31 Flour Ua Flour Un Unchanged changed chanced to lower in carload lots family fam farn- ily Iy patents quoted at a barrel barrel in pound 98 cotton coton sacks Bran 2200 Dran KANSAS CITI CI DAY KANSAS CITY Dec 31 Butter Dutter Butter eggs elCI and poultry unchanged COOPERATION ARRANGED WINNIPEG Man Dec 31 Furher 31 Further Further cooperation In the thE matter mater of equal educational educational edu edu- standards between the four western Canadian provinces has been oen achieved in a standardized reader for forthe forthe forthe the entire entre west west Past educational conferences conferences conferences con con- between the provinces ha have o been responsible for the development of a standard training In normal norma schools and a standard standing of admission |
