Salt Lake Telegram | 1948-12-25 | Page 6 | It's Fun to Poke Fun at 'Experts'

I f 1 1 1 Its It's Fun to Poke l Fun a aI aIts aIt's at t Experts j I P Its It's always fun to poke fun at the f experts experts and and we cant can't resist the opportunity opportunity opportunity op- op to invite a few chuckles atthe at atthe the expense of economists I The other day a congressional com corn committee committee held a hearing on corporation i profits were two Harvard economists Professor Sumner H. H and Professor Seymour S. S Harrise Har Har- rise ris Professor didn't believe business business business busi busi- ness profits estimated at more than 20 this this year were excessive r One reason for that opinion was that r he believed the profit figure was inflated in in- in- in that that actually corporation profits w were not that high If business did not include in its profit the higher value f of inventory and all allowed owed for higher cost of replacing plant and equipment profits j N this year year ear would he said be only about Professor also said eaid the business profits were way supplying supplying supplying sup- sup plying new n new w capital for industry was just justI I about right indicating that profits were not excessive f J Professor Harris on the other hand j. j f said flatly that p profits were too high and d differed with his colleague about T the level of investment He thought there was too much new investment This conflict emphasizes the difficulties f faced by congressmen and business business business busi- busi ness managements If the experts cant can't v v agree how can the ordinary laymen be ber r IP expected to reach any sound conclusions conclusions T on economic issues t Here are two prominent economists f contradicting each other One says v profits profit are too high The other says sas they are not One says new capital investment investment invest invest- ment went ment is about right The other says it is too much One or the other of r r these experts must be wrong Whichever one of these Harvard 00 economists is wrong has the consolation of knowing it isn't the first time Sev- Sev five enty-five per cent of economists polled Jn i.-Jn in 1947 predicted a depression in the J spring of 1948 which 1948 which made the co country's country's coun- coun unI un- un try's economic experts just 75 per cent I k wrong c No Now in in a second poll the economists t say the depression will come in 1949 s Maybe they'll have better luck this time If they keep on making the same prediction prediction pre- pre rt diction every year they're bound to hit it e eventually