Show CAUTION URGED UPON BUSINESS Economist Sees Temporary Temporary Tem Tern Downturn WASHINGTON Nov 17 UP A PI-A A prominent federal economist injected inject inject- ed a note of caution today in the frequent optimistic business forecasts forecasts forecasts fore fore- casts for next year The economist who asked that his name not be used said he and anda a number of other statisticians in inand inand inand and out of the government expected a slight and temporary industrial downturn in the first quarter of 1939 followed by a resumption of recovery in the second quarter His opinion contrasted with a statement of Secretary of Commerce Commerce Com Corn merce Roper yesterday that the fundamentals are in a more encouraging encouraging encouraging en en- condition than they have been for a long time Another view came recently from Colonel Leonard P. P Ayers Cleveland banker who said it was not yet certain certain tam tain whether this business recovery recovery recovery ery will vill prove to be of relatively long duration and vigorous development development develop develop- ment or be instead comparatively brief and restricted The economist t industrial production as s by the 1 board index is now back t Q l percent percent per percent 24 cent 25 1923 averages averages up up the 1938 low of 76 in May 12 points higher than a year ago and higher than at any time lime since the mark of October 1937 The industrial upturn since summer summer sum sum- mer men has been at a rate equaled be before before before be- be fore only in the artificial spurt Inthe in inthe inthe the summer of 1933 when many factories hurried to get out goods before N R A regulations went into effect I |