| Show S Foreign and Domestic Politics Are Factors in U. U S S. Business Right Now J Prediction n of Stronger Market Purchase of Good Inv In- In F v vestment Securities Advised Copper C Good Goo for Long Pull F S By Major Alva Lee 55 Manager Bond Department J. J A. A Hogle Hole l Co I. I jJ ri r rAST PAST MONTH Al ii AI during the month of November j S M f tb 11 stock market has displayed real ack ac- ac k- k d. J Million sha MIliton shar ila la are now flow t au anA occasionally the tho volum f f. f to more than a million and a ar r Ht half In studying tho the It should i bs be noted that on those thos days of greatest r tho the closing pi Ices are lower the die opening That a Is to say prices r c tP ov l' l upward d on small I volume n and r ie selling takes place on larI larse larie volume hl of ot a a. distributors distributor's lIart lIar raar t r Average prices have o advanced bet J r. than I 6 poInts point above e their theil recent rr 4 S 'S A considerable amount o of outside outsideS t. t S J lias developed and It Is not Im Im- Im Il J that the pre present ent upturn will another point or two h lie bond market has shown 1 l strength New Y Issues totaling a Q g volume than at I any time since i. i were placed on the market an and absorbed Average prices have ha I el eld l' l steady tudY with high grade rails lead lead- i 1 tK the ll list t and foreign o e g gent governments lead lead-I lf l I g The e course s of oe foreign govern govern- ent lent bonds has been very ery erratic I 2 exchange followed closely by I Internal bonds touched Its rec- rec V 5 low ow paint Sterling exchange also iy rV IV 1 k a spectacular drop This adversely S l all bonds payable In that curi cur- cur i ncy However when It It became apS ap- ap S arent that the difference between J. J 4 and nd nd Great Britain had bad been i j ched up P. P at least temporarily the re i v r- r rc svery y In both the franc and the pound Y t-Y xi A rj just as 58 prompt m as the decline had Tb ben n a d before o K III ii O OUTLOOK nOOK IN IX S i 1 Europe is now In political upheaval I t at t Britain h has been unexpectedly p 5 1 l Into r the he heh turmoil rr ot a general a S i- i ance France Is strenuously en en to retain both his diplomatic i among nations and his larget large t m In the French parliament eid lri Germany the emann govern- govern has fallen and the Industrialist to Ir 1 1 socialist are engaged In a bitter tUe e for tor supremacy In each of ot the these thele e 3 c Jj the be contest is between the theand ra and th Ui conservatives and the political issues are In in reality economic lt t Is extremely mely Ui Uie U dt I these may way not be solved be-solved solved by busi- busi U v e ess men rather than by politicians l. John Mood Moody In tn a a. recent financial re re- re view view in discussing conditions condition in hi Eu Eu- I tope cope states states' In part as follows r many GM imports Import 1 when m i tir 1 In metric tons ton Instead t of ot meaningless values have been een holding above above the tho 1922 1122 average Q This ar average was metric tons per month mouth whereas even in July 1023 1113 which was the poorest poor poor- cst est month yet reported tor for year the Imports were 4 tons Germanys Germany's exports ha greatly since the occupation but now that the people of the Ruhr are gradi gradually grad grad- i 1 going back to work vor she may mayper perhaps perhaps per per- haps be near a turning point Price movements e Indicate I that her e supply of foreign money nony n and d of al her e own w several er f forms forma of ot emergency having a agold agold i gold basis Is now becoming mote more nearly sufficient to meet liar Bar Iron for example In hi unoccupied d Germany Ocr Ger I many has declined from to lill 1111 gold marks rl per tO ton tori O One cannot h help recalling recall recall- e lt ntO stO sh Ing that In n past fast st experiences p I s with tI currency cur cui- rency Inflation the of prosperity has hRs been blen heralded by a growing supply of or currency having a cold 1014 or silver sliver basis and by a a. consequent decline in commodity prices measured in goldEven gold a any Even reparation without tr settlement t venturing the to co complete predict 1 collapse ot of the mark is in tt Itself elf a bull point on the future of German business for the the- themore more impossible It Ii becomes to circulate the present mark the quicker such business will recover Thus Ihus there theres s arn rc r. r numerous reasons for taking a hopeful hope hope- ful fui attitude toward the future of sterlIng sterl sterl- ing exchange e. and of ot European business generally general No Xo o aulen trade revival Isto Isto Is IIi to be expected but unemployment In Europe Is la almost where diminish diminish- ing and there are many signs of tho the beginnings ot of gradual Improvement Although Germany must reverse this policy and export more than she Imports Imports Im ins- ports before even a start can be made toward a return to normal still we Ve are of the opinion that the worst that can cans happen to Germany has as already been discounted s wise market se O On the o other hand England England and and France are far from froma a probable r solution f that of their controversies difficulties eu l a and between it is those countries will from time to time cause erratic fluctuations of oC exchange ex ex- change chang TilE THE POLITICAL OUTI AT HOME 11 As in Europe our political problems are also Iso economic ones The fight which will take place when congress meets will be between the conservatives and the radicals Of OC late th the conservatives have been gaining ground Six months ago It was taken for granted that the bonus bill would become a law At present pres- pres ent thi the o nd t are ar hU bill will bo be pd d by congress COngresSI vetoed by the president and will then be allowed to die a natural net nat ural death leati j Furthermore it now now- seems I ble bis that h lie radicals will make mu much ll I headway Ile In i their effort tl to pass a adverse railroad legislation It Is welt well il ila know i that hat hat the illS lie president Is opposed to an anything any any- thing thing- of ot this nature I The Mellon program m ln Jor or tax reduction I Is so popular popular with th th entire business world that thai It Is doubtful If It congress will I tall to fall to adopt It or ome coma n fl of It It In general the Improved political aa outlook c constitutes a a a. bullish factor In I both the stock and the bond market ESS FORECAST ST. Byron Holt In a a. recent analysis I n bU business I conditions s. s s summarizes rl as W i 10 lows with Mth Hh Tl record ord high waxes wages both nom nom S na nal naj end and nd veal real and with about normal we Would expect trade trl to b be active and merchants to be doing doln a good business I. vv W Q q do not expect the distribution cf of goods to slow down much before Christmas This Thi has ha been ou oui our op opinion for lor months The rhe business sit sit- situation situation may be summarized summarised about as fol tol lows low Wholesale and retail trade Is ac at- tive Commodity prices are steady teady ages lire are re record high In many Employment has fallen off ott slightly re- re 1 but is not far tar from front normal Railroad Rail Rail- Railroad road loadings are record high flank Dank clearings are about normal The build build- log ing and motor Industries are flourishing as- as never before The prices of ot build building nf materials have declined dechine 11 ii per cent re- re The Cotton otton and woollen goods Industries are unsettled and good only In n spots The leather rubber tire ferr fer fer- silk goods and soft sott coal Industries Industries indus Indus- r tries are depressed The Iron an and steel Industry Is about 80 per cent ent active but butr t ja l slowing W B 2 down The Tho copper P and metal I r industries d are Improving I but are stilt still below normal The petroleum and gasoline gaso gaso- line Industries nc are ac active ace e but are un unsatisfactory un- un satisfactory satisfactory- t st because se of overproduction v rJ ct and low prices The The food tood packing can can- fling and baking Industries ar am are exceptionally exceptionally good The purchasing power of ot the farmer I Is the highest In three years His dollar Is now worth 76 75 cents as as compared with 64 cents a year yea ago The prices of oC hogs cattle and wheat are however very low lo loRents Rents are record high bight In most cities Credit con conditions are excellent and money rates rate are eec eec- log ing Bond prices are Improving In spite of the great amount of new Issues Sentiment Senti Senti- ment tent Is Improving though It tt is still conservative con con- IV l Thus despite many weak eak- eak nesses and nd irregularities gu and aY despite the chaos chao In 11 Europe business with us is fairly stable and Is expected to continuo continue con con- con con- so until 1924 1024 Ve We then look fora for tor a a. further urther slowing down CO CONCLUSIONS CIL SIGNS My Iy opinion Is that the present resent present up turn in th the stock market will continue foJ foi a few lew more moro points Average prices are now better bettel than 6 C points above the recent lows 10 It Is extremely doubtful that this rIse will make snake 10 points Although Although Al Al- though there are many favorable factors of Importance to be considered in estimating estimating esti estl- mating the tue future course of ot business there are ara three unfavorable l influences that will constantly act toward a slowIng slowIng slowIng slow- slow Ing down of ot Industry First In Importance Is the limited buying power of or Europe our best cus cus- tome tomei Until Euro Europe e begins to improve WP mint a a. market markt fO for certain surpluses e which h we r hi Second e If It history Is to re repeat Itself commodity prices must readjust themselves themselves themselves them them- selves to considerably lower levels vels dur dur- lang the next ten year In order to i maintain profits production costs must be lowered at t the same m tI time end and n In tn the same wN ratio i This ll sl Is f. f a eryN very y difficult I lct task Wages ages and and production costs usually lag behind any drop In commodity com corn prices Consequently profits are likely to be small or be wiped out al altogether altogether altogether al- al together until the readjustment is 11 completed completed com cons j a i Third the uncertainty uncertainty during I an elec elec- year ear is In Itself a to bustness bust busl- ness This Is especially true at a time when the radical element Is making a areal areal areal I real showing of ot strength For Tor these reasons we are Inclined to I the tho belief belier that sometime this winter or early next spring business will again agam commence to decline In volume We do donot donot donot not however expect this action to be be rapid Credit conditions are entIrely too good to permit anything approaching a areal areal areal real depression In the bond market conditions are favorable fa- fa able for a considerable advance This rise should commence the last part of ot December and continue fh s several veral months I recommend the purchase of ot conservative conservative conservative conserva conserva- tive high grade investment Issues both bota bonds and preferred stocks tocks Speculative stocks should be sold on nit any ny further lurther advance Oil and copper stocks seem to be beell well ell liquidated and for the long r are a good goad b buy on the next e reaction tion tf w whIch I h I oh og 11 In t th the Block c market ta r |
