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Show Little Hope in. German Outlook outcome of peace negotiations. Altogether, Alto-gether, therefore, the conclusion was reached that Germany is in a fat-worse fat-worse pos-'Mon than is believed by Americans at home. The German outlook as the new year opens for business, discloses but few factors that make for confidence. One good factor, however, appears on the surface ; namely, what seems to be a more reasonable attitude of the laboring labor-ing people. The last great strike here, that of the metal workers which ended end-ed about three weeks ago, is thought to have exhausted the capacity of the Berlin workmen to wage any more big strikes this winter. It was so unwisely begun and carried on by the leaders that the radical elements have been somewhat discredited. Saner counsels are, therefore, expected to prevail in the Berlin labor orgaizatious during this winter. A greater wili'.ngness to work Is nlso reported from most sections of the country. There is still considerable American Business Men See Small Chance for Immediate Improvement. low mm VALUE IS CAUSE. Socialization Plans and Heavy Taxation Tax-ation Add to Urtrest Among All Classes More Willingness to Work Is Noted. Berlin. It has been interesting to me to observe the reaction upon the minds of American business men of a visit to Germany. These men have come here In considerable numbers during the last four or five months. Not a few of them had previous knowledge knowl-edge of German business conditions ; hence there was a rather pronounced optimism among them as to Germany's economic future. They knew, some of them, the Germany Ger-many that existed before the war. They knew or had heard of the German Ger-man capacity for hard and intelligent work, for applying science to business and production and for organizing manufacturing ant trading interests effectively. Americans of this kind fancied that they would find the same Germany of ante-bellum times. So they came with cheerful spirits as to their own business prospects; they felt sure they would be able to sell goods in large quantities here. All Disappointed. One of these Americans called to see me yesterday. I had met him some three months ago, soon after his arrival. Since then he has been mostly most-ly at Hamburg. There is where the Import trade of Germany before the war was chiefly centered, and he thought, after his disappointment here, that his best chances would be among the big importing houses there. But he came back here again, disappointed. The general trend of his report was that it is practically Impossible to do business here with American goods owing to the vaet depreciation of the : German .currency. The dollar is now I worth about 46 marks, which give the latter less than one-tenth of its normal value. Add to this the further "fact that all American goods are now Very high in America itself, besides high freight and Insurance rates, and It may be safely asserted that the German Ger-man must pay about fifteen-fold the pre-war prices for rr -ny American things. But high prices and the difficulties of doing business were not the only things that disappointed the American travelers. Some of them came not to do business at all, but to look Into the general financial and business conditions condi-tions on which all business must depend. de-pend. They came, In other words, to talk with hankers and manufacturers and get their point of view, to look with their eyes into the business situation situa-tion and prospects. And It was precisely this class of Investigators that took the most cheerless cheer-less view of Germany's plight. The situation was regarded by them as far worse than they had expected and as offering but slight prospects for any early improvement of a substantial character. What Impressed them most was precisely pre-cisely the depreciation of the currency already mentioned, together with the fact that nobody could give any authentic au-thentic grounds for expecting on Improvement Im-provement in It. Not only the depreciation depre-ciation of the mark, but also Its violent fluctuations In value, seemed to them to exclude all hope for Germany to get substantial financial assistance from abroad, for neither lender nor borrower cenld undertake the risk Involved. In-volved. Pessimism Everywhere. This situation made a deep lmpres-plon lmpres-plon upon such Americans as were nble to comprehend Its significance. Jlorcover, (here was a general atmosphere atmos-phere of pessimism here that strongly Influenced (heir minds pessimism as ,to business and politics, pessimism as Ito taxation schemes and socialization progrnms, pessimism as to the labor Hltuutlon, pessimism as to the uitimute malicious loitering by radical com munist and Socialist workmen ; but the wiser workmen are losing patience with those elements and are denouncing denounc-ing them openly. The growing willingness willing-ness to work is ulso shown by a vol untary return to payment by the piece on the part of workmen in some es tablishments. Not long ago a vote wa( taken by the workmen of all th shipyards of the country on this ques tion ; but a considerable majority was cast against piecework. This week, however, the workmen In several big shipyards at Hamburg and Lubecb have voted for piecework. Appned Socialism War. The same thing has occurred In otll er parts of the country. In all such cases it Is the workmen themselves who act ; any pressure from the outside out-side would only make matters worse, The hopeful thing in all this is tha' it is the older, more reliable workraei who are taking matters into their owt; hands, with the determination to suppress sup-press the young, unruly elementt wfifch fitTd taken control of shop or ganization in many towns. But, looking further into the futme, most German manufacturers just no are filled with grave misgivings abonl the development of the relations between be-tween capital and labor. The National Assembly is soon to pass a law for the establishment of shop councils whicl embodies the highest reach of appli-K' socialism that t'e world has yet wit nessed. It will provide for the election of shop councils in all manufacturing opi! commercial establishments, except tho smallest ones; and these councils will be entitled to elect one or two rept'- sentati.ves in the boards of directors with all the rights of "pay" members They will make known the wishes ol the working force and will be entitled to vote on all questions. .But big public expenditures nnd big plans for taxation swpply othei grounds for deep discontent. Ere-berger Ere-berger sees clearly the need of a huge Increase in revenues and he is settinp about the task of passing laws to get It without much regard for all those local Interests which are still so strong Ik Germany.,. Under the ante-bellum system sys-tem the national treasury had to tak a back seat as against the states. The latter claimed the big revenue-producing taxes, the Income and general property taxes, as their own peculiai preserves, and the nntion was wurned to keep off the grass. Erzberger has changed all that, under the stress of the huge revenue demands of the nation. na-tion. He has made the nation supreme in taxation. The income and propert5 taxes now belong primarily to It. Th states can get only a certain proportion propor-tion of the revenues raised by the nntion. nn-tion. William Dreher In New York Tribune. |