Show rural americas future pr prosperity 0 or hard times all depends on action of farmers during present period per cent increase in income over 29 causes boom danger to arise WILL THIS WAR PRODUCE A LAND BOOM ON AMERICAN FARMS this question concerns not only agricultural economists but everyone who lives on or near a farm its answer will largely determine future prosperity or hard times for rural Ame america ilca every previous war has brought its own land boom that left a wreckage ot of deflation behind under ordinary circumstances and with an ordinary war the current situation would be ripe for history to repeat itself the elements for a first class boo boom mare are present but from rom pearl harbor down to the moment farm real estate values have defied precedent by remaining below pre world war I 1 levels meanwhile agricultural income has zoomed to record highs pro has reached of peaks and the 1943 outlook promises further expansion farm economists are frankly puzzled over the trend of land prices but they unanimously hope it continues they credit the good sense ot of farmers themselves with the tact fact that farm real estate prices have risen so slightly thus tar far they out that while the danger of a boom exists farmers themselves have the power to head it off production picture brilliant As the 1942 crop year ends farm C conditions never appeared more promising p rom ising more than 15 billion dol 1 lars ars will flow into farmers pockets from rom this years bumper harvest the rhe biggest previous figure was 14 billion dollars in 1919 this years farm total la Is nearly four times the low ebb depression income of 4 49 bil ion dollars in 1932 1032 when operating costs including taxes interest wages for or labor machinery and other items are deducted this year farmers armors should have a income of from four to five billion dollars for living savings and investment farm families will have an n average of more to spend this year than last the production picture is equally brilliant for example the 1942 corn crop Is reckoned at bushels a record exceeded only by 1920 and then by but a slight margin the rhe crop ordinarily runs between band 2 and aja billion bushels but dipped down to ivi billion in the drouth j more bread for doughboys dough boys means A bigger wheat producing job to for american farm land years of 0 1934 and 1936 despite the huge 1842 1042 crop corn commands a high price the wheat yield this year will be the largest since the miracle crop ot of 1915 and the market price Is the highest since 1929 hogs have returned to td their traditional role of mortgage litter lifter they are more numerous than ever and worth more per pound the 5 hog of a few years ago has been replaced by the 15 hog hoe in excess of a million hog crop was figured for this year and even more production is expected for 1943 1043 beet beef prices are the highest since 1920 it is estimated that on january 1 1943 cattle and calves will number about 77 million head or more than a three million increase lor for each each ot of the last two years the 1942 calf crop is probably the highest on record totaling 32 million head sheep and lamb have established records and the average price is the best in 20 years niagara of milk A niagara of milk exceeding billion pounds will have cascaded into dairy palls pails throughout the unit ed states by the end of this year more milk cows are grazing americas pastures than ever before to be exact egg production for 1942 Is estimated at 50 billion Poultry men are receiving top prices for their production and to mention one or two other items there is more hay bay than ever and the potato crop of bushels beats ill all previous records ordinarily whenever an industry does as well as farming has done there is a tendency to speculate those already in the business seek to expand their operations others seek to get in on the bonanza and boon soon a spiraling boom is born A survey of the rural real estate market recently revealed that farms are selling in increasing numbers but no unusual price advances are yet noticeable the farm credit corpo corporation corporate rati on and insurance companies have been leaders in liquidating their farm holdings it la Is estimated that the has disposed of more than farms since 1938 some insurance companies report they have sold more than 80 90 per cent of the farms they acquired during the depression in recent months thousands san s 0 of midwest farms have changed hands in individual farm auction sales analysis of the transactions re healed that 60 per cent of the buyers were farmers halt half of whom were tenants of the tenants most were former landholders who had lost out during the depression when farms were foreclosed with farm income on the rise these tenants are getting back on their feet and able to make aown payments on farms of the their irown own of the 40 per cent non farmer buyers a large group represented e d city dwellers approaching retirement age who have bought farms in order to live reasonably on their pensions and income from savings how long this paradoxical situation of high farm income and low farm arm real estate values will continue economists do not care to predict t but they point out three factors which at Jre present sent make th the e farm picture of world war II 11 different from that of world war 1 I A different farm picture 1 farmers would rather set get out of debt than into it hence they ire are not bidding up the tarm farm real estate market by seeking additional land instead they are paying ot off mortgages and investing their surplus funds in war bonds they are making needed repairs on buildings and building up their lands productivity by the adequate use of fertilizers and ty by other soil conservation measures 2 the hangover aftermath of world war Is land speculation spree Is still fresh in the memory of most farmers farmers are hedging on the future by plowing back present earnings into their present holdings without attempting any expansion 3 the present farm labor shortage and the he rationing of farm machinery are effective deterrents to the urge to so acquire more land lets look first at the debt situation the extent to which farmers are using their expanded income to get out of hock was disclosed by A G baack head of the form farm credit administration who recently pointed out that a large percentage of farm mortgages are now being paid off ahead of schedule the nations cat ions farm mortgage debt has been reduced to 6 62 billion dollars the lowest figure in 25 years there are fewer foreclosures fore closures and other distress transfers than at any time in the past 20 years farmers realize more than ever before that a healthy liquid financial condition is the safest goal these days said a recent stai statement ement of the middle west soil improvement committee such a goal means getting debts out of the way it means building up the blood strains of livestock and eliminating the non producers it means making needed repairs on the house and barn it means paying particular atten attention tio n to the fertility level of the soil long run earning power this last is of particular importance tor for the real value of land Is dependent on its long run earning power thus any investment in a soil building program that will pay dividends in years to come Is an important contribution to a farms future productivity in wartime as in peace the farmer can obtain valuable information from his county agent or agnono mists at the state agricultural experiment peri ment station in developing his soil improvement plan such a program should include the raising of legumes to provide necessary nitrogen the commercial supply of which Is now largely required by munitions factories it should include regular crop rotation and the use of sufficient clent quantities of fertilizer containing phosphorus and potash to encourage plant growth it should include pasture im am provement pro by means of such a program the soils future fertility level can be assured and its immediate output of foods and fibers for war and civilian needs increased most farmers instinctively fear a repetition of the world i war iland I 1 land boom their hindsight has taught them many valuable lessons from the bitter experience of the and early if they profit by that hindsight they can escape the headache of a land collapse world war I 1 was a story of agricultural upsurge farm income rose from 6 billions in 1914 to 14 fi billions in 1919 high prices and a ready market tor for agricultural pro products d plus easy credit facilities encouraged cou raged farmers to bid up land prices farms were bought on speculation with the expectation of a quick sale at a profit land values were inflated from an average of 40 per acre in n 1914 to 70 in 1920 within those thos esix six years farm real estate rose in total value from billion dollars to 66 billions the sequel was a crash that still reverberates reverberated rever berates land prices tell fell from an average of 70 per acre to 0 28 more than a third of the nations six million farms were foreclosed by the end of the depression A all 11 farm land and buildings declined from 66 billions to 31 billions even eve n today farm real estate is worth only 36 billion dollars less than it was before world war I 1 |