Show aik oik NATIONAL NA AFFAIRS re reviewed by CARTER FIELD preparedness spending dingas vs budget balancing is is major p political problem washington ponders problem of shipping war auppl supplies garners personal astren strength til big factor in presidential situation washington while it Is ex difficult to forecast what wha the effects of the he european war wa will be on the presidential election elect loi campaign ta in the united states next nex summer it has already insured a i very vety important effect on the budget budge balancing situation this Is the sit bation after all which Is and has ha been giving more concern to mem bers of both parties than any other one thing with the possible excel tion of the war itself th there ere has not been any doubt zinc since e th the e war broke out that thi the united ed increase its expenditures for military purposes sharp increases in the army navy and marine corps enlisted strength have already guaranteed that with the recondition reconditioning i na of the more than world war destroyers st contributing its quota but that is just the beginning there is going to be a tremendous boost in the appropriation this winter winfer for airplanes for training airplane pilots and maintenance of a larger air force there will be in all probability further authorizations for more enlisted men and officers in the army navy and marine corps entirely aside from the increase in personnel in the air forces of all three arms of the service running hunning into more spectacular figures however will be the new navy nary building program and new de 1 fences tor for panama hawaii and tain points on the atlantic and pacific coasts not to mention alaska there Is very little opposition to all this but consider for a moment just jus what it does to the hopes for balancing the budgell not that there were really any such hopes spending debt issue may wreck next administration this spending public debt issue is the one on which most politicians privately agree the next ad administration will be wrecked it is the reason so many senators and representatives say the next president will be a one their thear theory ls is very and applies to any republican who might be elected just as well as to any D democrat emo crat the next president must either go on with spending more than the government takes in i or he must cut expenditures drastically ti every one agrees that taxes i must and will be raised probably after the election but no one believes that taxes can be raised enough to balance the budget unless present spending is heavily curtailed so the next president will be with the problem of whether to cut ind and infuriate the farmers or the unemployed u hemp loyed or all three or to go on spending and scare the daylights out of the folks who are worrying about what will happen to this country tr if the federal debt goes on mounting this last may sound farfetched far fetched and academic to some readers but brad a brief confidential talk with any shrewd politician may surprise them just a few days ago secre tary of the treasury henry mor jr told newspaper men that the treasury would not issue 1 asue checks after the federal debt had passed the present legal limit un I 1 less e as congress changed the present law aw limiting the debt imagine the debate in the senate when that bill comes cupl and the newspaper headlines and editorials about HI changing of ships flags arouses severe criticism there Is no doubt that Roosevel ts loot slipped a little on that business of pir permitting ships of the united st states itis lines to change their flag to that of panama actually the pres ident thought the idea was good neither he nor secretary of state cordell hull foresaw the public reaction and apparently gave little thought to 0 what the world in general would think but babii noticed the ahe domestic buzz saw they st slipped promptly hway away people are talking here about con gressional gress lonal indignation and political consequences but the extreme probability is s that talk will be purely academic not only at convention time next june but even when congress meets in january A lot of water will have flowed under bri bridges gi c meantime and there will b be bailiss tar less certainty then that the idea had the presidents complete ipp approval rovil than there is now some of the criticisms of the plan which was perfectly legal of course iid are rather amusing As a matter jf baci one of the most successful shipping com companies in the history of the united states is a fruit company which back in 1909 ao 40 togo ga wy way back back before even I 1 thi the wo world r ld war problems problem sWat was operating oje rating fleet of 76 vessels vessel of these only und under erthe the american flag mot most of them flew dew the th union jack or the flags of the three scandinavian countries they operated the them under other flags as because it was cheaper to do it that way the present system of encouraging shipping of course with what virtually amounts to federal guarantees makes the notion of transferring ships flying the the united states flag to other registries just a little cockeyed but the present system did not contemplate a war most of all it did not contemplate a united states law which would forbid ships flying tho the american flag to take part in the highest paying commerce in the world that 0 of f carrying supplies to the belligerents will leave plenty of trade for united states vessels actually of course ships of other nations will be drawn to that commerce by the incentive of profit insurance at high rates covering the risk and being paid for by the customers which will soon leave plenty of ocean carrying trade for the american ships united states ships la in short will do the least profitable bitable business taking th the e p places I 1 ce s of ships of other nations attracted tr acted to the more profitable trade that Is all right with congress had there been a vote on that simple proposition alone unencumbered by the arms embargo repeal the vote for it would have been ten to 10 one but it is a little tough on the men who were trying to build up an american merchant marine but what the president really was interested in kasnot to provide cargoes for united states ships but to insure a steady flow across the atlantic of american made planes tools munitions and supplies of all sorts from cotton to guns As a matter of fact he would have greatly preferred to have congress go back to international law and took the cash and carry provisions only because he had to in order to get the arms embargo repealed right now a new plan for a steady flow of war supplies is being worked out what it will be nobody knows as this Is written but it will be done the administration is resourceful remember how the AAA changed into a soil conservation project after the supreme court decision the advisers capable of solving that legal knot are not going to be stumped by the failure of the plan to hoist the flag of panama on the united states lines boats garner real candidate for presidential nomination it has been a long time since there has been any real doubt that john nance garner would be a real candidate for the democratic presidential nomination at the national convention next june and in some of the primaries to be held in the cpr jn g yet had been heard about his candidacy for the perlo period d including the extra session of congress and the hectic war news which preceded it that some had assumed the garner candidacy had bad died a natural death garner gamer has two tremendous elements of strength will have three tt if president roosevelt gives him his blessing instead of fighting to nominate himself or some one more openly new deal in economics and associations first garner has tor for reasons which can be assumed since there is little doubt of the accuracy of the general statement a very wide public confidence the second element ot of strength possessed by garner gamer is the friendship and confidence of most of the democratic politicians this was never better demonstrated than in the house of representatives in the neutrality fight in the special session of congress garner gamer virtually took over the direction of that fight and by his personal influence turned what might have been a very bad situation from the administrations standpoint into a real victory garner sensed situation and went to work himself garner sensed that situation even before the newspaper men began to count noses to add polls of this delegation to those of that and find out that the vote was apt to be dangerously gerou sly close realizing the danger garner wired sam rayburn democratic leader of the house to hurry back from texas and get on the job ob then he went to work himself it was long association inspiring friendship and confidence which made this thi so effective but in the course of the nearly 40 years in which garner has been a a factor on capitol hill hundreds of democrats teve passed through the house and senate and gone back either to vate life or offices back home which appealed more to them there arp are lots of flukes in politics of course but on the whole an election to the house means a good deal as to the influence and position of the man elected this does not entirely disappear disa wear even if he retires to private life some vestige of influence remains garner gamer probably has more friends of this sort of varying degrees of importance and weight scattered through the country than any living man all this cannot be added up to make the result that garner gamer could defeat roosevelt fur for if the president went after efte it there Is no way of telling how such a fight would work out though most most ers era in washington would bet on the Preil president dent but there is a growing number of democrats important in the party who hope the president will not seek a third term beu 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