Show I IFA FA FAVORABLE FORECAST I Downward rice Price Trend Seen NEW YORK With With the postwar inflationary price rise apparently nearing an end the probabilities seem se m to favor a downward move move- movement movement movement ment of the price index in the next 12 months it is predicted in a re re- report report re- re report port on The Price Level released by Bankers Trust company The report prepared by Roy L. L of the banks bank's economic de de- department department de- de department added that the prices of some manufactured goods may show a further modest and probably probably probably ably temporary rise but it is be be- believed believed believed that any such movement will willbe willbe willbe be more than offset by declines in inthe inthe inthe the prices of farm and food com com- commodities commodities commodities and other othu materials The bank warned however that thata a combination of contingencies such as bad weather and a substantial deterioration of domestic crop pros pros- prospects prospects prospects could upset its forecast After examining the factors in involved in- in involved involved in the present rise as compared com com- compared compared pared with those in the price jump following World War I the bank said since the all commodity wholesale price index has not in increased in- in increased increased creased as much this time as in World War I it is likely that the de de- decline decline decline cline in the price level will not be beas beas beas as severe during this correction period as it was wan in 1920 The bank cited a number of factors fac fac- factors factors tors to support its view A collapse J f L 9 in farm prices does not appear im im- imminent imminent im- im imminent in the near future it said Food prices although below recent highs are supported by a high level of employment and national in in- come Prices of many manufactured manufactured manufactured goods have risen only mod mod- modestly modestly estly despite greatly increased costs of labor and materials Furthermore it is pointed out the greatly increased supply of savings and liquid assets may pro pro- provide provide provide vide some support for the price level The business inventory situation situa situa- situation situation tion moreover does not appear comparable to the excessive mone mone- monetary monetary monetary tary speculation following World War I. I L L H l JA 10 A |