Show J I Babson Gives Forecast For Emerging Year YearY I 1 am ani stil emotionally upset as ac I make this forecast after the he brutal assassination of President Kennedy I however however er er will try to submerge my emotions and base this forecast fore cast of 1964 on the facts as I interpret them 1 OUR NEW President I state emphatically that President President President dent Johnson may accomplish far more constructively constructive before November 1964 1961 than our late President would have been able to do President resident J Johnson I understands better how to handIe handle han ban dIe dle Congress and has the confidence confidence confidence con con- of oC businessmen Therefore Therefore There There- fore I am reassured as to the first ten months of 1964 2 ELECTION in November At the Republican convention in the summer of 1964 1961 there will be a conflict between Goldwater and Rockefeller and perhaps others For or this reason Mr Nixon may slip in and get set the Republican Certainly President President President dent Johnson will secure the nomination of the Democratic Party he ic is a farsighted man and knows politics Therefore with the Republicans nominating ing any anyone one of or the three leading leading lead lead- ing names mentioned above I Inow Inow Inow now forecast that President Johnson will be elected President President President I dent of oC the United States in November 1964 All of this gives me more assurance that 1964 should be a good year 3 TAX CUT A tax cut willbe will willbe willbe be enacted sometime during the coining coming session of Congress Congress Congress Con Con- gress and it will surely be made retroactive to Jan 1 1964 1963 The tax cut should help consumer buying it may even increase ase general business 4 CIVIL RIGHTS Some i sort of a civil 1 rights civil bill will be I passed l by y Congress during 1964 1969 Tine The Administration wants to please the South and hold its Democratic votes there but the rights civil bill now before Congress is not satisfactory to the white people of the North Therefore I forecast that whatever C rights civil bill is passed before the election of or 1964 will be considerably wa watered Watered Wa- Wa Va- Va down 5 NEGRO PEOPLE T The h e Negroes will continue to make progress and get more but I predict that the gains will have ha to come largely through changing attitudes of the peo peo- Otherwise the situation will be much like the prohibition prohibition tion lion problem which the good people of the nation thought could be solved by legislation Such reforms take place only as the minds and hearts hearts' of the people are changed for the better 6 GOVERNMENT SPEND- SPEND ING Of course course in the longrun long longrun longrun run the survival of a nation should depend upon its spending spending spend spend- ing less than it takes in Nowadays Nowadays Nowadays Now Now- however it is unfashionable unfashionable unfashionable for consumers or government to have e balanced bal bal- balanced budgets Therefore I predict that 1964 1961 will see sec a bigger deficit than this years 7 DEPRESSION Whelk e r for fOl better belter or for worse the time voters have been taug taught t to believe believe believe be be- beI I lieve they can and should get set something for nothing and only a severe depression could ultimately change this belief I however look for no depression depression depres depres- depression sion in 1964 1963 8 AGRICULTURAL 0 U T- T LOOK Although crops prices and farm income may be basically basically basically bas bas- dependent on the weather er much oC of the world is short of food Russia's and Chinas China's heavy y purchases of grains will do more to bolster US U.S. farm farn income than will government government- supported prices in 1964 1961 1 9 D. JONES DOW INDU TRI TRI- ALS I forecast that the stock market as as measured by the Jones Dow-Jones Average will make a new high in 1964 but may maysell maysell maysell sell lower lowel after the elections However readers must remember remember remember re re- re- re member that the Jones Dow-Jones Industrial list which everyone seems to think represents the market may be very deceptive tive live 10 SPECULATIVE STOCKS Of the approximately 1550 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange a majority have been going down do while the Jones Dow list of 30 0 which everyone watches have been going up This is due to the purchase of Jones Dow-Jones issues toda today largely by trustees pension pension pen pen- sion funds mutual companies and others that prefer fairly conservative and amid pay dividend ing lug companies I forecast that stocks not in the Jones Dow-Jones list toil wil do better I proportionately proportionately proportionately proportion proportion- in 1964 1961 than they did this tins year Car 11 SWITCHING Based on m my above forecast and having learned that only buying can cm send stocks up I predict that 1964 1904 may prove to be a a. a good goodear goodyear goodyear year ear to switch from front some of the overcrowded Jones Dow stocks into other issues that are now overlooked 12 GOVERNMENT BONDS The only government go bonds that interest me are arc the long- long term ones which may now be purchased at a discount to use usein usein in payment at t par for death taxes I forecast that more go governments will be issued during 1964 and that their prices ma may gradually sag as i imone mone money becomes tighter 13 CORPORATION BONDS Those buying corporate bonds should either cither stick to issues o of under five years' years maturity or keep their money in the savings bank I predict that term long-term corporation bonds will drop in price in 1964 1961 as interest rates lates rise 14 H. T TAX EXEMPT EXEl BONDS I Likewise I 1 predict that long- long term tax tax exempt exempt bonds will decline next year They are even more overpriced than corporation bonds because of or heavy bank buying during the past two years I do not look for this to be repeated in 1964 Therefore I would certainly confine buying of tax-exempts tax revenue bonds 15 INTEREST RATES I forecast that interest rates will continue at least least as as' high as today and will possibly rise through 1964 1961 in order to lo keep gold here in this country and uphold the value of of the dollar 16 DEVALUATION ION O 0 OF F GOLD I forecast that there will willS be no dev devaluation of oC gold dur during ng 1964 I am personally acquainted with conditions in Africa and will say that those who wish wish wish-to to speculate in gold mines should consider Ameri Ameri- I South can-South African Investment Co Ltd Readers should r re remember remember re- re member however that gold gold- mining stocks will go down do as aswell aswell well wen as up in accordance with many different conditions 17 PROFITS I 1 s t that corporate profits will continue con time to to rise in 1964 1061 1 64 though possibly at a somewhat slower slow slow- i er ar pace than recently 18 COPPER PRICES Com Cont Commodity Commodity prices prices prices' are dependent on two factors rs Demand and supply Take copper I believe demand will vill continue to increase in in- crease during the electrical era we are now in And since my visit to lo Africa I L feel the supply of copper is almost un lID- un- un limited Hence I forecast little change chanse in price on b balance lance in 1964 i b I t 19 OTHER BASIC RAW RAW MATERIALS With some few exceptions the above e applies t generally to many of the basic raw jaw materials including iron iron and amI steel and especially alum alum- mull The present firming in quotations will no not c oai carry Iry ry much further and could be subject to setbacks later in the year 20 SUGAR Sugar pric prices s however will hold in a h geny gen generally orally high range al aU all through Cugh 1964 4 S SUBURBIA aURB 21 BUILDING SUBURBIA BUILDING f I forecast that new new building will continue around present nt levels through 1964 with n r lional growth in suburbia This applies to single homes hOJ and to hous' hous houses 5 t which could easily be ov over t- t built as the hotels hotes and motels have been 22 PUBLIC U C C. C TION Otherwise strength in in- building will occUr occur mainly inthe in in- in the public sector secor especially Io 23 REAL ESTATE I predict predict pre pre- the right dict diet that farms on side of cities will constantly increase in value during g 1964 1961 t I say ri because ev- ev cv cr cry erv c city ff 4 ems s to have som some C S Sec B BABSON on page 3 3 Forecasts Continued from front page one best direction in which to grows V gro This usually is toward the higher land and often to o othe the west but this is something subdivision developers must musti i watch very closel closely 24 21 RURAL AREAS As I have hav s said id before the way to i buy real estate profitably is to tod d five drive out ut the main road awa away from the city in which you live Jive on the right tight side Ev E cry ety few miles stop slop and inquire in inquire in in- quire the pi price ice of land so long as it is quoted by the foot get bet ba back in your car and drive until until- it is quoted by the acre Everything else being equal I forecast that the purchase pur pur- ch chase se of oC a this land Jand in m 1964 will show you ou a profit profits over the thelong thelong thelong long term 25 FLORIDA PROPERTY There is still a lot of oC land in Florida Florida and there are man many retired people who are hoping to move there I forecast that your best Florida buy in 1964 will be waterfront property God made only so much waterfront waterfront waterfront wa wa- wa- wa land but there is an enormous amount of oC interior will be good only for pastur- pastur land which for many years age Do not buy land anywhere anywhere any any- where until you see it dont don't or spend Pend on blueprints catas cata cata- and sales s super J cf ft f t 1 I FLORIDA FLORIDA nIOME HOME I beall be- be mall all home in a smalle small e nd I ty and ownership of oC e r r ti th I t Klot lot on each side t ill safe and d 1 Ii Fi prove rove a etC eie in inv investment in 1964 cst l Tone one w who o has a check T coming in reg regularly arly from the North z 27 ADVERTISING e TV TV advertising will continue strong for patent medicines and some other products I II I forecast that honest newspaper newspaper per advertising will hold its own o Newspaper ads can be cut out and kept for reference reference reference refer refer- ence which is impossible with radio or TV ads 28 28 NEWSPAPERS I forecast forecast forecast fore fore- cast that competing newspapers newspapers newspapers pers will continue to consolidate consolidate consolidate consoli consoli- date and there ma may possibly tie lie a return to the days when newspapers newspapers represented the opinions pinions of some one man with rUh c courage r influence and personality rather than the de de- visions of of a cold board of directors Note that this is something television is already alread trying to develop in its news reports and newspapers must match it j 29 STRIKES I believe that 1964 will be free from large strikes The big show of oC course will be the negotiations between the auto workers and manufacturers However I predict that both sides will arrive arrhe arrive ar ar- rive rhe at a peaceful settlement before the deadline 30 V WAGES AGES While labor will not get all the pay increases it wants in 1964 it will get the equivalent in fringe benefits benefits bene bene- benefits fits 31 EMPLOYMENT I forecast forecast forecast fore fore- I cast employment will rise furth further further fur fur- th ther r in in 1964 due to a prosperous prosperous prosper prosper- ous ous economy with new and expanding expanding expanding ex ex- operations Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment will rise too because because because be be- cause of the influx of young job seekers and displacement of unskilled workers by auto auto- mation 32 WORK WEEK There will be continuing agitation to cut the hour 40 week in 1964 1964 to a hour 35 week with the same pay I forecast this will not be accomplished There may y be a compromise to 37 S1 37 d though this will depend 1 f upon President I John John- 33 FOREIGN TRADE Rising Rising Ris ing automation in m the Ule US U.S. in 1964 will enable us to compete more effectively with lower per per labor costs in Europe Labor costs in Italy are already rising and inflation inflation inflation tion is threatening Europe particularly Italy and France 34 INFLATION Like th the rest of the world we will be tempted to resort more and more to inflation but I forecast fore Core forecast cast this will not be a vit vital l factor in 1964 35 LIVING COSTS There will be continued upward pressure pressure pressure pres pres- sure on living costs during 1964 even though the Administration Administration Administration Adminis Adminis- may soft pedal any abnormal abnormal abnormal ab ab- normal rise in the Labor Departments Department's Departments Department's Departments Department's De De- index to prove that costs are arc being held down 36 RETAIL SALES I forecast fore fore- forecast cast that 1964 Will show an Increase increase increase in in- crease in retail sales and in installment purchases 37 RECREATIONAL Equip Equip- ment I forecast that the great increase in leisure time and the consistent gains in personal person person- al income will give manufacturers manufacturers manufacturers of recreational equipment equipment equipment equip equip- ment a prosperous year in 1964 1961 38 SYNTHETIC FOODS I forecast that many new synthetic syn syn- foods cheaper than the natural and just as healthful will vill appear in supermarkets in n 1964 39 19 SYNTHETIC CLOTHING I forecast that this new industry indus indus- try ry will develop notably in the United States during 1964 particularly particularly par- par as regards specialty work vork clothes 40 AUTO PARKING The auto companies are arc devoting much study to the parking problem I forecast real progress ress ess toward mechanical parking parking park- park ing ng in 1964 1961 11 41 SEAT BELTS I predict that hat insurance companies will put added pressure during 1964 on all state governments to enact legislation ri n g roll up seat belts on all cars 42 NEW INVENTIONS I forecast that rapid strides willbe willbe will wille be e made in 1964 in the direction tion ion of transferring mass through matter malter 43 3 ELECTRONIC PRODUCTION TION I forecast a great increase increase in in- crease in electronic manufacturing manufacturing turing in m 1964 with emphasis on adaptation of space efforts to o military applications 44 AIR CONDITIONING I predict radical changes in air conditioning in 1964 via the re re- reduction reduction reduction and later elimination of moving mo parts in the heat- heat withdrawal machinery 45 ELECTRIC HEATING I forecast experiments in electric electric elec elec- heating in 1964 whereby radio waves will heat only the individuals in the room but not the air I 46 A P H Y I in 1964 in mineral recovery food supplements new chemical chemical chemical chemi chemi- cal derivatives etc obtained through i c r e e- search 17 47 CUBA People in Florida have lave no reason to worry about their nearness to Cuba in 1964 Russia will undoubtedly keep a controlling finger on Cuba until she decides to withdraw in a swap of some kind with the US U.S. in connection with Berlin or West Wast Germany 48 WAR There will be no world war in 1964 and even the cold war war- war pressures should gradually soften and prove less costly I however am watching carefully how President Johnson and Prem Prem- Premier Premier Premier ier Khrushchev get on er 19 49 RUSSIA I predict that the Russian gove government will vastly increase the manufacture manufacture ture of electrical appliances and will have a per cent owned installment company which it will operate without competition When I was in Russia it was evident from my talk with with the |