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Show COMPLEXION OF 1 SENATE SEEMS 1 MUCH II DOUBT Mark Sullivan Says Republicans Republic-ans Will Put Their Man in the White House I BUT HE IS FAR FROM SURE ABOUT SENATORS G. 0. P. Has Tough Eattle in Many States. Including Utah. He Declares I BY M it lv Si l I 1 1 n Rational Polltlcn Correspandeiil ol Hie Evening Pos. WASHINGTON, D. C. Oct. 23. As 1 havt frequently the presidential situation ha long run .strongly in fa-MJLj fa-MJLj ft- vor of the K i- 1 u I 1 ! I - I'" -'-hK ; -n t i 1 1 situation is frequently Bpokcn ij of as "overwhelmingly Republican.' but this characterization is only partially par-tially accurate As respects electoral electo-ral votes and as respects the number of states carried, it doc rqw look like a vfctory tor Harding sufficiently marked lo justify the word overwhelmingly.1! over-whelmingly.1! Bui In terms of :ii popular vole thai Is hardly true with so, large a state us Indians likely to give Harding u.. greater majority than 60.000 and so large u state as Ohio not likely to give hlhi a maiority greater than 8D.0O0 ami with the Republican majority in Ull-nois Ull-nois likely to be below rather than above normal under thc3o elrcuni-stances elrcuni-stances the Republican advent :ce c: n-not n-not accurately be said to be oyor- whelming:. TIR1 l LLSON. ' J T)ie fart is that In stats after state a Hot particularly largp margin ot vot-ere vot-ere who are normally Democratic this year vote for Hardii g because they are tired of Wilson and the Dem-ocratlc Dem-ocratlc administration at ;.. .-nn a. hi. These voters are not large In numbers but they do not need to he more than, tay, one lu ten of the Democrats, to I', make a margin suff'a swing State after stale out of the Tn Democratic column into the I.'e.uMI-mtr I.'e.uMI-mtr can column. One In ton of the I i I k v crats Is the same thing :j bne In twenty of the total eU-ctorate. That HH not 'a striking proportion, it Is oiTly per cent. Unquestionably that five per ill HH who are going to change their votes fllRB irom Democrat to RepUpHrai exist. H Any one who canvasses his du guaintances win find in twenty one who is in this position. And one in II r twenty is enough to change the jorlty" In a good many States. I am not saying that It s only one a tw t who will change. I am mcrel) saying E that that one is ei publican victory However, it is merelj academic to I"" discuss to what degree the term "ov erwhelmingly Republican victory" Is justified. As thmgs stand now, Hording Hord-ing Is In the lead to sveh an Stent that it Is hard to Imagine his being dislodged during the last two weeks of a rather apathetic campaign. a9m SI N M l IN DOUBT. So much for the presidency. The control of the senate, however. Is quite H another matter. Unc of the most cutting, but at the same time one of the most Oliver, things said in this campaign came j from JosephUS Daniels, a Democrat, whose Intellectual capacity is much B ti.' underestimated Mr. Daniels went to HJ i to t campalgt state. In the course "t H he said., BjQ 'The Republican majority In the sen- H ate is out on bail " BB What hi. meant was that the Repub- H9HJ Y licanS have a nominal majority of two votes in the senate and that one of jl them is Newberry of Michigan, who Htl ( 1 under conviction for having iecUr- HBb eii hi.-: s-al through ill'-uil n of I r money and is now awaiting the result HBl i of an appeal before the higher courts. Pending th- n-suli of thai appeal Sen-ator Sen-ator Newberry, as a matti r of taste,. refrains from voting in the senate With Newberry not Vbtlng, either i.m-g i.m-g porarlly for reasons ot" taste of " manently for reasons more binding than taste, (he lie public-ins have forty- c eight senators and the Democrats for- S ty-seven. - LA FOl LI TI I I MU M III D. . But one of the senators who iflj SrfiQaf counted nominally among tlie Republl- B t cai)8 Is la Follette of Wisconsin. La W Vollette is Just as likely to vote with Be M the Democrats as with the Republl- SsH j. cans, and when he does, tin Dem - BjHB crats have fort-i ight otes to the Jie- sjBH U publicans' forty-seven, I Further, one Republican senator, Be , Gronns of North Dakota, failed of BB renominatloti in thi primaries. His BBk "WhUi successor Will lie either Di-Iiiori.il oi BBH nao4 Nonpartisan leaguer. in North Da-' MBS me nasi iv0la nv- Nonpartisan league has cap- IW anr lured the Republican organiz.i i nm. so Xofl that the Republican nominee lo sue-; BBn , seed Qronna, Dr. 10 i'. Ladd (who, b HB Q the way, is an able man), is really) BBW much more a Nonpartisan leaguer than! BBV Republican. He can no more be de- BBl pcndeil upon to help make up a Re- BBV f publican majority than La iT6Ustt if BBy i.-dd should not he elected a Demo- BBb crat will; so that In any event th(. Re- BBV Publicans in the future senate will not BBn be able to count one from North Da- BBV Kotat, as they are in the present sen BBb kota. as the are in the present sen- , I Kim IS WITH G. ). P. BBV e Tijls is enough to show how serious BBV gi' the situation in the senate is with the BBb - Republicans; And it la not merely HB , that they are really one or two short (Continued on Page Two.) Complexion of Senate Seems Much in Doubt (Continued From Page On I of a majority- 't is worst- than Ihat. rherc are several Republicans in tho i. n.itc other than l,a Kolle'ie. who are r.i very depenrta tih from u party point of view Johnson of California for c implo. Johnson la never u very dependable Republican. but n the next Henate he intends to be an Indian. He Is practically off the reservation riRht now. Ho says openly that hla present support of the Republican licket Is merely u truce. To his friends arid to newspaper men privately he says more than Ihat He says he l goliiK on the warpath the day after j I fit Inn Johnson sTIId. PEEVED i Johnson has not got over the way he was treated by the Chicago convention. conven-tion. He wus not merely defeated, but' humiliated. The man who mad'- the speech nominating Johnson was laughed laugh-ed at, and Johnson wiut made to seem a little ridiculous. That is the sort of! thing that generates action in John-1 9on Johnson s personality is one that funtlioiiH very powerfully on the fuel of grievance Most deeidely the Re- I publicans cannot feel comfortable in jdupcniUnK' on Johnson to help make; I up their control of the senate Another Republican senator who I cannot be depended on aa a party man lis Norrls of Nebraska, Clearly, the Republican senate majority ma-jority Which is nominally two, and really only is one. Is in truth, not a majority at all And what the Republicans Re-publicans hope for and seriously need is not merely a bare majority but a 'comfortable majority. What they want and neea la comfortable work-' ling majority of six or eight. They I want to control tbe senate Any party thai looks forward to being in power ami contemplates changes as funda-' mental as the Republicans hopo to i inal.i and axe expected by the country coun-try tu make wants not merely a majority ma-jority but m easy-working majority ihat is exactly what the Republicans have not col . 'el whether tin-) cMi get it in the coming election is the really re-ally exciting aspect of this campaign HARDING INFORMED. Senator IbirdlilK ri-uJui'H Mil- n.-c-.l with probably keener appreciation than any one elte. 1 suspect he is iiip more troubled thought to the Si n-ate n-ate than to his own fortune:-.. It will bo noticed that CVCrj tr'j II i r I i 1 1 has made i b iy from bis front porch, except ex-cept one, was into states where there are senatorial contests. Twice on his 1 Way ho spoke in stales where there are' no senatorial contests, but It Is senatorial sena-torial seats that have been the real objectives of his departures from the 1 front porch. i llardlnp knows Well What kind of a' bear den he would be In for the next 1 four years if he should have a hostile I senate. Mo and the Republican lead I eis in the senate, and elsewhere as ' well, have an uncomfortable recollec- 1 lion of the tension that has existed between the Republican senate and 1 thi Democratic president The) knqjv" that just aa tio-v be-d vilsd Wtson o ' would a Democratic senate, if it should ; come about, be-det i Harding, I MEANS MORE TROUBLE I In the pre.-.. -nt tension, whether the i fault is Wilson's or the Republican I senati which began it and winch is i most to blame -is of no ronsequence.il The fuel is that It baa existed, audi the fact of its present existence would ' b ad to more of It if the situation 1 should be duplicated the olhcr wuy I round during the next four years. II Furthermore. it Ik a fundamental part of the Republican program to gej I rid of that lack of harmony between i the White House and the c apltal that ( has existed, not only In Wilson's time. on almost all th time (or the last 1 sixteen yea, beginning with Roose-,V veil's brcai. w ith the senate and the It house. The Republican progiam is one of party responsibility a single-party single-party dominating the White House. the senate, and the house, and working smoothly and harmoniously. That Is the Republican ideal Incidentally, the Republicans, If they are sufficiently confident of success suc-cess for Harding and for the lower house, might conceivably make an effective ef-fective appeal to independent voters on this very point if they-could convince con-vince the voters that they are sure to have the presidency and the lower house they might 9a to the voters "Give us also a Republican senate Ket the control of all three branches of the government be with one party. Help us avoid the delays and deadlocks dead-locks and futilities of divided control. Give us a machine that can function swiftly and smoothly I'ut the respon-B respon-B billfv on us, but give us the power to fulfill that responsibility." WHAT HOOVER MEANT. As a matter of fact, some of the rnoru thoughtful Republicans are be-J ginning to say this This is what Hoover meant when he said that party1 responsibility and a harmonious anil effective mechanism of government are more Important than any one issue is-sue However, that is the concern of the' Republican leaders This article la concerned with examining the probability proba-bility of the Republicans controlling the senate. Let us see Just how great that probability is. 1 have spoken of the present senate.! Iet us now onsider the next senate the one that will come Into existence with the fourth of March, the one; whose make-up Is determined by the senatorial elections next month. Of the 34 senators whoso terms Will expire, 19 are Democrats and 15 Republicans Re-publicans If' each party should hold Its own, tho senate would remain Just j as it is with a nominal Republican majority of two, but a real Republican! majority of less than nothing. Superficially, it would seem as If. In j n year like this. I he Republicans ought to do much bc lt.r than men !) hold their own. IU. DIVVERENCE. But there is this differential, so to' speak, against the l;'pubie.iuu of the 1 i Democratic v acanc ies, nine are In j southern states Virginia. Florida, 1 Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, outh Carolina. Gsorgia (2), uinl Ala- 1 bama. These will be filled b I emo- ! crats without an doubt whatever '! There are only ten Democratic vac ancles an-cles vv !)! ,. the Republicans have a.' chance to make gains. i n the other band of the fifteen i Republican vacancies there are only three cases where the Republicans are 1 sure to return their un a ensli) These 1 cases are Penrose of I'cnns) Ivanty, s "urtis of Kansas, and Dillingham of 1 Vermont, Penrose, i urtis ana billing-1 ham have the only Republican SSnatO-j i ial seats a to which the Republicans ( Ban feel perfectly safe. In the case 1 jf every' one of the twelve remaining J Kep4ihiiea u scat.-', the Republicans lave the hardest kind of a fight to re- I aln the seal The fights differ in de- 1 free, of course, but there Is a reiil 11 lght In every one of the twelve cases. n all but on" of the whole flftSjjSn v ases It Is conceded that .the Repub- t lean candidate for senator will run I jehind Harding TAls Is true even in 0 Io ' a.-e of I'enrose oi I 'en ns;. 1 v a nin . u Jn nearly half of these cases the -republic-ins themselves concede that f it were not a presidential year if t Were u normal year (he would i" teaten by the Democrats That Is lartleulurly the case with Watson of ndlana, SITUATION BUMMED I P. I;ui there is not space h n to go nto each of these contests separately, owever, thej can be summed up iriefly. The 1 j states in which Republicans ire fighting to keep the seats they now lave are Vermont. New Hampshire, 'onneciicut. New Vork Pennsylvania, hiO. Indiana. Illinois. Vis( onsln, .II?tsouri Kansas, North Da-;ota, Da-;ota, L'tah and Washington Among hesc, the states wlnr.. the Rcpubli-' f cans have a particularly difficult fight on hand are New Hampshire. Connecticut. Connec-ticut. Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri and ! I.'tah There are also. In New Yoric and Ohio, fights of a difficulty such that If It were not a presidential year, or If it were In all respects a normal year. I he Republicans might readily lose . HERE DEMO RAT6 J 14.11 r. The stut;: in which Democrats are fighting to r. taln their seats, omitting omit-ting the nin,. southern senators already al-ready mentioned. are Mary land. Kentucky. Ken-tucky. klal I , Bouth Dakota. Colorado. Colo-rado. Idaho. ' n-eoii. Arizona. Nevada und California. These are the states, and the only slates, in which It is possible pos-sible for the Republicans to make gains. In a subsequent article Mr Sullivan Sulli-van win analyse the situation as to each of these i2 senatorial contests, and will try to forecast the result In each case and tell the complexion ol the next senate Incidentally, the ul-tlmall ul-tlmall fate of the league of nations lies cjuite is much in the attitude of the successful contenders for Senatorial seals on that Question as In the attitude atti-tude of Cox and Harding. The maximum maxi-mum league of nations thut can ever Come is the maximum that will he Satisfactory to two-thirds Of the senate. sen-ate. ) Copyright, L920, bj the New York Kvenlng Post Syndicate. |