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Show chandise. 25. Wise will be those manufacturers, manu-facturers, merchants and consumers consum-ers who realize that postwar competition com-petition will be terrific and, therefore, there-fore, withhold purchases until 1946. FOREIGN TRADE 26. The United States will own over 50 of the world's ships in 1945. 27- There will be an increase in free exports with the "Freed Countries", but Lend-Lease exports ex-ports will decline. 28. We will make England and Russia large postwar loans provided pro-vided they spend the money in the United States. 29. Both the British Empire and Russia will go into the competitive com-petitive foreign trade market during dur-ing 1945; many cartels and government gov-ernment monopolies will be in operation. I, therefore, forecast higher prices for coffee, cocoa, sugar and many other articles for which we are absolutelv ripnonH THUMBNAIL OUTLOOK FOR 1945 Look for these developments: Farmers' cash income will approximate that of 1944, which was $20 billions. Both bituminous and anthracite mining min-ing will run 5 below a year ago. Petroleum output out-put will be upped 5. Iron and steel will decline 10. A similar drop is in prospect for chemical manufactures. Lumber output! will increase 5. The paper and shoe industries will run along on the same levels as during 1944. Industrial employment employ-ment will be 7 less and factory pay rolls will decline de-cline 10. Greatest single expansion will come in the construction and building group, which will show an increase of 25 ' from the low levels of 1944's first six months. Look for a sharp drop in retail trade, especially in luxury items. Electric power output will be reduced 5 as war contracts are cut back. For basically the same reason railroad rail-road freight ton mileage wall fall 15. BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK FOR 1945 By Roger W. Babson GENERAL BUSINESS ent upon foreign countries. 30. No Central Bank will be organized nor will the stabilization stabiliza-tion of foreign currencies be attempted at-tempted in 1945. LABOR 1. A year ago the United States Babsonchart Index In-dex of the Physical Volume of Business registered 148.6; today it registers 138, justifying my forecast of a year ago. The Canadian Babsonchart Index of the Physical Volume of Business regis- 31. The Little Steel Formula will be amended during 1945. 32. Industrial employment dur ing 1945 will be off 7 in hQUrs and off 10Tc in pay rolls. 33. The building of a few new autos and new houses will be re- 1 sumed during 1945. 34. Many industries, now oner- ' atmg on a forty.eight-hour week ' Jill return to a forty-hour week ' during 1945. , b take-home- income will be j . WAR OUTLOOK 36. The greater part of Ger- 1 maiiy's army wi,l collapse before a the German planting . c tered 206.9 a year ago; today it registers 197. 1945 will show a reduction of more than 10 both in United States and Canadian business. Furthermore, most of the following comments apply to j both countries. 2. War production is already I being cut tack and this reduction will rapidly continue through 1945. ! Even those railroads and industries indus-tries which expect to benefit from a long war with Japan will be disappointed- 3. The re-conversion of industry indus-try from war to peace business will increase during every month Of 1945 l?lirtIiprmnt.Q - I good on the whole for the past few years; but sooner or later we ! will have a severe drought or an j early freeze. 12. Pending a weather upset, more bushels of corn and wheat and more bales of cotton will be raised in 1945 than ever before in our history. Although some pnces may slide off, the total farm income for the first half of 1945 should hold up. ' 13. There should be a 15 de chne in hog slauhgter and a 5 increase in cattle slaughter 14. Dairy products will continue to increase both in volume and in Puce. I am forecasting at iP-,ct the spring 0, 1 945. Before sur rondermg, Gcrm:,ny wm - - long a?15 Wi" I10t hold out as months JtZ T Slx 0r twcIve 36 , Gm,a"y collapses. he wm s he,:,lth contln. ul man tate the peaco A,- "lay dic- for the Paciuc ' C"My r ,X' am recasting at least ! a i A rise in volume. 15. Farmers will start In 1945 to work again for legislation on their parity program, due to fear of a collapse in all farm Prices after the war TAXES 16. Taxes will not be Increased during 1945 and some will be re '17. The Federal Debt will con tinue to increase during i' taxes, t'1.. "e about ing1o,lriwfnjbtn:rmf''n-litical ing1o,lriwfnjbtn:rmf''n-litical football of 1945 t P" ui j, r uruiermore, time required requir-ed for re-conversion will not be as great as most people believe. 4. Inventories quoted at their price values, rather than volumes, will continue, as a whole, during 1945 about as during 1944. Raw material piles will be larger, but manufactured goods will' be smaller. 5. Population Increases in the United States during 1945 will be about 700,000, but the birth of new babies will fall off somewhat RETAIL COMMODITY PRICES 6. Rationing will continue thru the most of 1945. During the ear ly part of the year, I expect to see further restrictions especially in connection with meats, canned goods, etc 7. The retail prices of most necessities and some luxuries will be higher during 1945 than at present. The prices of some of the luxuries, such as furs, have already collapsed. 8. Steel prices of goods needed for peacetime manufacture should be a little higher, but prices of the heavy war goods will decline This applies also to the heavy chemicals. 9. The wholesale prices of raw ' materials in general may decline1 during 1945, but most consume ; goods will hold firm or sell lt j higher prices. For both gasoline and bituminous coal, there mav be price concessions. :10-' great 1uesn mark of ! 194o will be how, to whom and wll, PT th& ernment will dispose of its billions of dol- lars worth of unneeded supplies r FARM OUTLOOK suPP"es. t 11. The weather will be the h greatest factor in farm pduc n tion and prices during im tL ? weather has been exceptional ly d litical football of 1945 T g P" I now prepared tn V am not will happPenefn t". f0recast what 20 J w connection. J- Th"gb a coalition of Re Publican and Conservative n erats, we should have ?e nothing" Cons?- a do RETAII, SCALTseSS dU" IMS-21. IMS-21. The VOLUME retail , will show a decKnp SaIes P"ces of ladies" ann 1M5-eral 1M5-eral luxuries gCn" grocery sales sho l f1"' whilc f2. The totSal0DOL"gh--sales should be reta'l f an'ii' t0 tor woolen and cott , dcr"and civilian use n textues f0r ness ?heouldSt W New York n Y na Pa-; Ohio; Davenport iv,"' Cleveland, CM, WichrtkS SM J. i. Tliere will ho Ped in 1945 J feat stam. make-shift ersat, d ot b'n mat rdtWhich Place of good , take the i9 wii,eo:dtna'iSe. Thus down sales- unr r"y "mMk-W "mMk-W "Rationed mcr.j |
