Show Tighter Competition M After War l-War War Demands Soil Fertility Be Maintained at High Level Elements Drawn Yn ra From Soil by Bumper Crops Should Be Replaced What will the coming transition transition transi trans ilion i- i tion lion from war to peacetime I economy mean to American agriculture That question has been raised with increasing frequency not only by dirt farmers but by so- so called agricultural economists too as Uncle Sams Sam's armies and fleets have won smashing victories victories victories victo victo- ries overseas and as prayed-for prayed peace becomes a closer ity One thing is clear When the war warI ends the farmers farmer's situation will be I Three Big C Problems 1 I Most farm authorities are of the I opinion that postwar agriculture will face three major problems 1 Farm acreage vastly expanded expanded expanded ex ex- to meet wartime food demands will have to be re re- That means more efficient efficient efficient effi effi- farming on fewer acres 2 Farm surpluses may become become become be be- come a peacetime headache 3 War-spurred War farm income will inevitably decline when the present abnormal demand for food slackens In 1944 farm crop acreage goals totaled million acres compared with million acre plantings in prewar years That is an increase of 46 6 million acres Commenting recently recently recently re re- re- re on the adjustments that will willbe willbe willbe be necessary to fit postwar requirements requirements requirements require require- ments Chester Davis former AAA administrator and now president of the Federal Reserve bank of St. St Louis said The farm plant has been expanded expanded expanded ex ex- beyond the capacity needed to supply abundantly the peacetime peace peace- time domestic market and any normal normal normal nor nor- mal export market that may be available Farmers will face real need for acreage adjustments and andin andin andin in some areas shifts may be drastic The second problem farm surpluses surpluses surpluses sur sur- pluses will not be troublesome so long as the war lasts Food needs of our Allies and liberated regions may keep it quiescent for a while even after Germany cracks up But in some future day it will become a worrisome e reality Reports from liberated countries indicate that the food supply situation situation situ situ- there is less acute than had been anticipated France the Balkans Balkans Balkans Bal Bal- kans Poland and even eventually Germany may require less food from our supply than we had been counting on Stocks of goods in Great Britain are arc reported to be tons against a normal tons These reserves have been built up substantially from Crom lend-lease lend shipments shipments shipments ship ship- ments out of this country If these were reduced to say tons when the war ends there would be left about for relief Surveys Surveys Surveys Sur Sur- veys by the Stanford Food Research Research Research Re Re- search institute support the belief f rr m i m 4 n a L l T F 4 M a good deal different from that of the he manufacturer or industrialist The farmers farmer's peak production job will be completed Vast stocks of food and fiber will be in storage competition for markets will be keen teen Industry on the other hand will vill be reconverting from war production production production pro pro- i to the greatest peacetime output in history The backlog of demand demand demand de de- mand for virtually every commodity used in civilian life liCe automobiles machinery building materials refrigerators refrigerators re- re radios heating equipment equipment equip equip- equipment ment household furnishings willbe will willbe wille be e big enough to require years of high geared industrial activity Some economists believe that if peacetime industrial output and employment employment em- em remain high say high say at about 50 billion dollar income level annually an an- the the demand for farm products products products prod prod- would be sufficient to absorb a total otal production at about 1943 levels But even if the nations nation's efforts to maintain postwar production and employment succeed farm economy must be prepared to withstand some shocks The switch from peace towar to towar towar war will inevitably bring changes in I farm arm methods to cope with new techniques techniques techniques tech tech- in marketing and production In n such a setup the individual farmer armer who uses antiquated methods methods methods meth meth- or who fails to maintain the fertility fertility fer- fer level of his soil is doomed to failure mL n LI that Europe wont won't be much of a market for our food surpluses When Germany German Surrenders Some decline in food prices can be expected after Germanys Germany's defeat defeat defeat de de- de- de feat for then both military and lend- lend lease buying of farm commodities is likely to taper off This need be only a gradual movement until some downward adjustment can be effected effected effected ef ef- in production volume By the end of the Japanese war the re re- re- re conversion from war to peacetime production of civilian goods should be well under way Prices however could c could uld go to 90 per cent of parity for the basic crops The government is pledged to step in at that level with support for at least two years after the war so no further severe drop than that may be necessary All of the foregoing factors spell competition in the farmers farmer's postwar operations Farmers can arm themselves themselves themselves them them- selves now to meet that competition and to withstand the economic shocks that will accompany the transition period If they do some straight thinking they can be stronger strong strong- er at the wars war's end than they were I at its beginning First of all they can safeguard their future by keeping keeping keeping keep keep- ing their finances in a liquid condition condition condition condi condi- tion by buying war bonds by shunning shunning shunning shun shun- ning debt and by avoiding the pitfalls pitfalls pit pit- falls faUs of through the purchase of additional farm land Secondly they can take out an insurance insurance in policy for long range farm productivity by undertaking a soil fertility rebuilding program Present high food prices have al already already already al- al ready lured some farmers into land specula speculation tion and Such recklessness brought ruin to millions millions millions mil mil- lions in the wake of World War I. I It can bring disaster again this time During and immediately after the last war when food prices were even higher proportionately than they are now many farmers were foolish enough to mortgage their own farms farm in order to buy more land a recent statement of the Middle West Soil Improvement committee points out The sellers were canny canny canny can can- ny operators who preferred to take their own awn cold profit on real estate rather than gamble on the chances of food prices remaining eternally high The memory of the crash and andI I deflation that followed is still painfully painfully painfully pain pain- fully fresh After HAfter the present war American farmers will have to compete in inI I world markets Because of current currentI income levels the temptation to acquire acquire acquire ac ac- ac- ac I quire additional acreage is strong I Some farmers believe it is a smart move because with more and better better better bet bet- I ter machinery available after the war and their sons coming home from the army they will he be able to work more land than hitherto Homesteads for Soldiers The government is already planning planning planning plan plan- ning to give homesteads to service service- men When this is done the owner o of an expensive farm will be in a tough spot to produce crops in competition competition competition com com- petition with the man who has no capital investment in the soil solI portion portion portion por por- tion of his food factory The only way the American farmer can successfully compete either in domestic or world markets in postwar years is by producing crops at a lower cost per unit In such a program the stead steady use of mixed fertilizer containing nitrogen phosphorus and potash will be an enormously important factor More bushels per acre can and will mean I more food from less land It will I also mean more good food per acre to help build healthier human beings I and farm animals in the future The need for building up the I soils soil's productivity is widely recognized recognized recognized as a postwar must No less lessan lessan lessan an authority than Secretary of agriculture agriculture agriculture agri agri- culture Claude recently declared Now is the time for farmers to worry about soil fer fer- In answer to any farmers farmer's statement statement statement state state- ment that My yields are better than ever Secretary counters with this question I Ask yourself how much better machinery and better plant varieties have had to do with those increases Over much of our best farm land I better yields are the most pronounced pronounced pronounced pro pro- I cause of accelerated soil depletion a steady decline that I most farmers cant can't see yet but which could bring a nationwide crisis in soil fertility No great nation can afford to neglect the productivity of its soil The problems of abundance baffling baffling baffling fling as they seem are a challenge They can be solved and their solution solution solution tion will be the gateway to a better way of living But to the problems of steadily lily declining production there is no answer That pathway eventually leads to decline and ruin It not only is impossible to produce produce produce pro pro- duce abundantly on depleted soils it is almost impossible to produce efficiently Huge Crops Robbed Soil After four years of record- record breaking production for war farmers farmers farmers farm farm- ers have special need for checking up on their soil resources and for repairing the effects of depletion Such a checking up would in most Gases cases reveal that the soils soil's fertility level is lower than it was in prewar years Fertility has been one of the necessary casualties in the battle to meet wartime food production goals Peak-load Peak have taken a heavy toll of the soils soil's resources resources resources re re- re- re sources of nitrogen phosphorus and potash Rehabilitation of the soil is thus a necessity if the fertility level is to tobe tobe tobe be built up and the productive capacity of the land maintained in inthe inthe inthe the competitive postwar period All things considered the cost of J I plowing seeding and cultivating a i Get I It t Early The War Food administration again calls cans on farmers to accept delivery of their fertilizers during the winter and early spring when the manufacturing plants can make delivery most easily and to store it in their barns and sheds for use when needed P. P H. H Groggins chief of the chemicals and fertilizers branch advises The individual farmer can assure assure assure as as- sure himself of sufficient fertilizer er by placing his orders as asfar asfar asfar far as possible ahead of the season season season sea sea- son of use If all an farmers will I do this plants can be kept working working working work work- I ing at the capacity permitted by available labor Continued maximum maximum maximum maxi maxi- mum production and use of fertilizers fertilizers fertilizers fer fer- is necessary in support I of the war food program II I I field is the same whether the crop I yield be large or small Therefore the farmer who is able to get big yields at a relatively low production production tion cost is the one who will make money when competition is keen Attention to essentials is ol of course important in any soil improvement improvement improvement im im- im- im provement plan for postwar years In addition to good rotation the growing of rooted deep-rooted legumes contour plowing where necessary and the return of manure and crop refuse to the soil the use of mixed fertilizer i is a No 1 necessity Qualify ity as well as high yield will b be important factors in the postwar farm arm market Experience has demonstrated demonstrated dem demo demonstrated that fertilized crops are ol of higher quality and yield than unfertilized unfertilized ones I |