| Show industrial the condition of industry and of investor psychology h been accurately reflected by the stock market during the pa ten or twelve weeks during the first part of those weeks t th b market level tended to advance slightly with each saturday closing figures showing consistent net gains this was cause by the expectation of a marl ed early spring upturn in gener business however the upturn was so slight as to be almo non existent with the result that for the six weeks ending 0 march 5 each week saw a slight net loss in prices there wei no important breaks values simply oozed gently down downward war for lack of anything to sustain them volume of turn over w wa extraordinarily low in one week being the smallest in moi than three years on march 5 the AP index of sixty stocks stood at 44 5 the 1937 high was 75 3 and ana the low was 41 7 so that it show shonn we were ier very close to the low lou of 37 on the other hand in spite of the lethargy of bubines and the growing belief that there will not be any improvement until fall the feeling of most of the finance journals has not been pessimistic thus business week re ports that although no important changes have bocc occurred 1 ii the level of industrial activity sentiment has been better the annalist dealing with more tangible factor says that there are signs of improvement in some con consumed sumei goods industries and in commodities affected by specula demands the labor situation has shown marked improvement improve men in recent months the president presidents s price analysis A as bommen ably obscure no reputable authority is actually bullish but it is worth recording that a considerable degree of optimism obtains in spite of the constant appearance of new current statistics which are largely unfavorable some items relating to the state of business follow RAILROADS are seriously down with railroad revenues showing 6 a grave decline the s decision on the 15 per cent rate increase is expected this month railroad heads are talking of plans for consolidating lines automobile the outlook has definitely improved with production rising after bid bad experience in january when new passenger car registrations amounted to only units as against in january 1937 the sales of a typical car the dodge for the first three weeks in february were almost 85 per cent above the same weeks in the preceding month STEEL operating around 31 per cent of capacity A more or less substantial increase in tural steel bookings is expected soon inasmuch as these bookings have been declining in spite of a good volume of engineering contracts WAR MATERIALS here is a really booming business and every factor indicates that the year ahead will see still bigger sales almost every country in the world large and small not excepting the U S is spending record sums in tion for der tag PRICES here is the great question mark at present it is likewise one of the administration administrations s principal headaches the president believes in a price parity policy that is that some prices are too high and some too low and that a balance must be reached A deflationary ary trend now seems to be under way and it is believed that the gold sterilization policy will be modified so that some of the yellow metal which has now no securities or currency out against it will be used to enlarge the credit base lase A laige business and banking bloc has favored this though such a policy is somewhat inflationary in nature unemployment no one knows how many bles are out of work everyone knows the figure is still growing in all probability the total is not far from the 1932 33 high A few corporations of which general motors is the largest have started to cut salaries but this tendency has not become widespread as yet to sum up we are today in a static period there is no reason to expect either sharp upturns or downturns in the business cycle or security values for some time to come the political situation and the international situation must be watched constantly for possible changes in problems and policies it is possible but not probable that a big break will come in the next two or three months all in all best forecast is nothing much will happen in either field between now and late summer hitler who has unofficially conquered austria and won the chamberlain government to his side now has a covetous eye on little czechoslovakia the one real democracy remaining in central europe the czechs have a government very similar to ours he apparently wont find the going easy the czech government has announced it will fight the nazis to the list man and has embarked on as ambitious a military expansion program as it can afford it has france on its side thus little by little the ententes of the next world war are forming |
