Show f. f REPUBLICANS CAN LOSE LOWER HOUSE r. r 1 Raymonds First Campaign I Letter to Moun Inter-Moun- fe J tam fain tain Readers f y NOTED WRITERS WRITER'S ESTIMATE I Every f District Necessary to C Assure President Taft Sup Sup- i port ih in Congress 1 iks 1308 OI by Tribune Corn Com com I I U IN Chicago H liv 11 1 1 IO il Il ca Service W D. D C. C Sept 19 Ii 1 W 3 be lJ the easiest thin thing in the tho worM world ur kz Tuft ana Uriel Sherm Sherman ll to be elected 61 ll the national ticket ct all and at the warn same Mme june fur for the Republicans ans an to lose 1080 th the J of representative That l is Ie on one thing which Is I. giving the Republican CO nI naJ committee a n. good deal dea Of Of Concern nowadays it Il would do to ai an amount of oC harm to the sue suc- b l of the tho Taft Tart a administration If It 1 It T uld be confronted with a hostile t majority In th thu lower house houe of ot cont eon con t iH-e. iH I In Xii the tue first place It would woula bo iraC- iraC Impossible to carry through any illi satisfactory plans pIan for 01 tariff i ro- ro c. c virton according to the Republican Idea It would probably be ary t to tt have an extra session 1011 of ot congress congre early in November so ISO that a tariff re- re measure might be rushed th through uh and signed by Roosevelt before the fourth of ol March Otherwise the tho Democrats in pIto of or I the control of the senate which Is assured us- us for Or years to come corne would be able ablerto to hold the whip hand han on all legisla legisla- lion Hon rh They could dictate terms In re ref re- re f r pr gard erd 1 to the tariff and as all legisla legisla- thin tion affecting revenue must originate In n the house it would be for or them thom to create a ft tariff bill which a Republican senate and BUd a Republican President would have to modify There Thero Are Doubtful Doubtful Districts It Is La not so 80 hard to lose tho the house houe of or representatives s as most mOlt people seem to Imagine According to the tile last latt edition of the congressional directory allowing for tor or vacancies there wore 24 2 dl districts re represented Ie by Republicans and only by Democrats This produced the unusually Jargo large Republican lican majority of ot j 47 7 votes in tho the house houge of representatives s. s They were chosen I during th oft off year ear of ot and under un Un- der dor ordinary circumstances it Jt would be bo fair tah to assume that it if the ai are e 9 c cry tho the national Jet clot lion year they Ought to wIn wn a maJority ma- ma iu iii tho the house Louse nt it tho the sanio Ulmo time There are uru however whIch oJ a o JJ n I P Uit In I l t 1 C.- C. lii h ha a of cea- cea ceat t Ao iH c. c V r i. i 1 L il v J r. r n ot ut tho j w 0 n l I VOr Tu tUo tho d In Inthe tho the Northern states shows hows that tho the Republicans might lose hose control of the tho hOWO without halt half trying A itcan lIean majority or of 47 7 on tho the floor means mean that a change of 24 H Seats scats would wipe out that majority entirely and give the Democrats control of or the house III In reality of or course there thero are area a great a-great great many more moro than that number I of doubtful congressional districts There are tiro some districts TV where here the I Republican majority Is normally large am and ancl yet et where the chance chanco of ot winning IB Is extremely small In quite a number of ot cases there are arc factional faction faction- al iti n lights which will interfere with a straight out test of or strength between the parties In more than one one strong Republican district a party can candidate has boon defeated In tho the primaries only onh to announce his Intention of running running run run- ning fling In Independently before tho people In other cases Democrats have havo nomi- nomi lar and who are tiro likely to win th tho election elec elec- lion tion entirely aside from Bryans Bryan's party strength While it Is true that the signs of or the times all ull point to tile the election election elec elec- tion of ot Taft and Sherman upon tho the national ticket It nee need surprise no ono one If Ir tho the Republicans lose 1080 control of ot the tile house of or representatives largely lare-el If It not Dot entire entirely as aH a result of or local political po po- conditions In different parts of ot the tho country Dancer Lies Lice An examination of or the tile election re returns returns re- re turns tunis has haB shown that there are no less than 56 districts in the tile United States in which the majority or rather plurality plu plu- lu- lu for tor tho sitting Bitting members of or ongle congress con on on- on gle gb gress 88 was loss less than 2000 This Is a narrow majority In any congressional district an and It is especially so In a campaign In which tho the issues have havo not been sharply defined and where there thero la IS every reason to fear car the re results results ye- ye suite The close con congressional dietrict districts districts dis die tr In e each ach of or which the plurality one wa way or 01 th the other was less than 2 2000 votes otes foot Coot up UI CO GG G altogether and have havo bc been n tabulated as follows Illinois i r New Jersey 2 Indiana 8 New York 1 I Iowa 3 Ohio 9 4 Pennsylvania f 4 Maryland z Rhode Island I 1 I 1 Tennessee 2 Missouri I VIrginIa I 1 2 WJ WIsconsin I 1 that It Is a curious l coincidence thee these doubtful districts based on the question of or plurality alone alono arc equally equal equal- ly divided between the tho two political parties That Is to say 28 S 8 of or them are arc arenow arenow now DOW represented In the house b by Republicans Re Re- publicans and tho the same number b by br Democrats These questionable congressional con- con gressional districts as now represented In the house ma may therefore be grouped into the following table Rep Dern Dem Illinois 3 3 3 Indiana G 2 Iowa Iova J i Kentucky I 1 Maryland Minnesota Minnesota- mi I 1 Missouri J f Nebraska 1 i 1 New few Jersey p New Xe York 1 i 3 Ohio fc G 6 3 Pennsylvania 2 Rhode Rhodo Island i Tenno Tennessee aee I 1 Virginia Wisconsin 1 Total Total 28 8 28 Would Bo nu lug iB It takes only 24 1 o distriCts to s the loWer complexion or of I. I the that I b house ol of congress congre It will be rH cen whore where j less lea than half hair or of those districts TJ a a of or under 2000 ife If thEira was Iv ive e carrIed b by the 5 z the m them Control control of tile the lii In R. R great mattel or of Our e a ak many cases all as a 1 or of or le hess Js is absolUtelY k oil n noe inie t H Hr r- r 4 1 REPUBLICANS CAN N LOSE LOWER HOUSE d From Ironi luJ Inge One flue safe There are many con congressional districts where public sentiment r runs ns along In an even sort of ot fashion anc and tho the party rt strength is cast for tor a congressman congressman congressman con con- gressman about the same as for nn any other candidate upon the ticket Tho Australian ballot law now in force in inso inso so 50 many states has had a decided tendency tendency ten ten- dency clency to prevent the splitting of oC tick lick ets Tho The result Is that congress Is much more likely to follow the national national national na na- na- na ticket than used to be bo the case On tho the other hand there Is a growing growing growing grow grow- ing spirit of independence among the voters Independent tickets have multiplied multiplied multiplied mul mul- in a great man many states ant and these causes have havo operated to make It probable that the figure of 56 doubtful doubtful doubtful doubt doubt- ful districts Is well weB within the markIt mark It would be a great calamity for tor Mr l Taft to be elected President and at atthe atthe the tho same game have the tho opposition control the house of or representatives Under the constitution that branch of congress must originate all legislation legislation legisla legisla- tion lion raising or spending mone money Not only the tariff bill hili but every other measure of or a similar character must originate orl in the house All the great appropriation bills which are absolutely essential to the thc conduct of the government have their thell start in the house The senate can amend but It cannot originate any measure of ot this character The result resul will be he that if Taft should be elected President and should find himself confronted confronted con con- fronted with a Democratic house of or representatives hi his administration no matter how well Intentioned would be bo seriously handicapped from the start Ho He would have ha to make bargains with the tho Democratic leaders to secure appropriations appropriations ap ap- ap- ap to carry carryon on the business of oC every ever department of the govern govern- ment This Is the one real dan danger el of or the campaign an and the Republicans are straining Cl C every nerve to see tee to It that they shall secure a majority of tho the lower house of congress They could afford perhaps to face a Democratic Dc house In the tho middle of oC the Taft Tart administration administration ad nd- ministration but hut it would be bc extremely extreme extreme- I ly disastrous to tho the TIc Republican publican governmental governmental gov gov- program if such a a. thing should bo be one of the results of oC the time election next November For FOL this rca rca- I son ton the time Republican congressional Committee com cont- has been extremely active in this campaign and is doing almost a aa as i much work in ht the doubt l congley districts as us the national com coin Itself |