Show NATIONAL NA AFFAIRS Reviewed by CARTER FIELD Carter Field held says sap Willkie must carry New Y York orT and amI Illinois or break the Solid South Unknown quantities ties may decide the presidential battle bailie Bell IDU Syndicate Syndicate Service 1 I WASHINGTON WASHINGTON This This campaign will further twist the already ragged I party lines in this country Cotton CottonEd CottonEd CottonEd Ed Smith a and d Edward R n. Burke Durke of Nebraska have already followed Al Smith John W. W Davis and Jim Reed I Iwho who walked in 1936 1938 and haven't come back But Dut it will take a powerful pow pow- powerful erful lot of walking to cut Roosevelt down to size sire when one remembers that 46 96 to 2 margin in 1936 To have a chance to win Willkie must carry New York and Illinois y i or else break the Solid South Even with New York and Illinois he must carry carry car car- ry every other state north of the Mason and Dixon line and east of the pi And this includes Wisconsin The Solid South and border states have electoral votes If Roosevelt E. E R R. R Burke Durke carries them and also carries Illinois West Virginia New York California plus the three little states of Arizona Nevada and New Mexico and Washington he will have electoral votes six more than enough to elect On form all the states mentioned are heavily Democratic All went heavily ly Democratic in 1938 a year of sharp Republican gains Note that this leaves out Montana Minnesota the Dakotas Utah Colorado Nebraska Nebraska Ne Ne- braska Kansas Iowa Wyoming Oregon and Idaho Willkie can carry every everyone one of this last list plus all New England and all the states from the Mississippi Mississippi sippi to the Atlantic north of Maryland Mary land and Kentucky with the eXception exception exception tion of Illinois and New York and still lose losel I SOUTH MUTTERS The South is muttering against Roosevelt There is no doubt of that But Dut it is not sound judgment to figure on any electoral votes there So it boils down dOVID to this that Willkie must carry New York or be defeated Meanwhile Roosevelt and the administration administration ad ad- ministration with the strategic advantage advantage ad ad- vantage so clearly with them may maybe maybe maybe be counted on to play as safely as possible This means that from now until November for example no action action ac ac- tion Uon by the government may be expected expected ex ex- to upset the continued improvement Improvement improvement im im- Im- Im provement in business due to huge armament orders orders and and expected orders or or- ders Roosevelt found this policy highly successful in 1936 when business business business busi busi- ness was improving There is no reason to vary It Both parties will continue to make war medicine medicine for for ballots not guns In in congress The Republicans plan to keep It dragging along They want to ride herd on the PresIdent President President Pres Pres- ident to create the impression that only their restraining influence will keep him from some overt act which would plunge us into war But also they thy want to put the administration on record as resisting any changes in the various bureaus and agencies notably the NLRB which they insist are hampering business FEARED THIRD PARTY President Roosevelt's scrapping scrapping- Before Defore the e Ink was dry dry of of the war issue plunk in the Democratic platform plat form h be himself had dictated clears the way for a campaign on purely domestic issues The purpose of the weasel words words words-to to prevent Burt Wheeler and Champ Clark from starting a third party party had had been ac ac- ac- ac Now the President stands on his record Just a little bit more belligerent toward Germany Germany Germany Ger Ger- many and Japan than Willkie agreeIng agreeing agreeing agree agree- ing with him precisely on all possible possible pos pOSe sible legal aid to Britain and foursquare four four- sQuare with the Republican nominee on creasing our national defense to the be utmost ON OS DOMESTIC Do ISSUES The lines of the campaign on domestic domestic do- do issues Issus will be fairly simple Willkie will insist that the present administration has demonstrated Its inefficiency and ond extravagance and hence cannot be trusted to produce the taxpayers' taxpayers moneys money's worth in spending billions on the army and navy He will NOT attack the socIal social social so cial advances and New Deal tives for the benefit of the underdog but insist that their administration should be intelligent and particular ly Iy that there should not be barn burnings to get rid of rats Roosevelt and the New Dealers will harp on their accomplishments in social reform and insist that to turn the government over to the Interests interests in would mean to wreck them They will wiil say that whatever Willkie's WJ personal views he will be as helpless helpless help help- less as Harding and Hoover to prevent pre vent sordid Wall street-controlled street throttling of the little business man the consumers and all the rest of it And they will ring the changes on the noti notion m of a Wall street utility holding company executives in the White louse House I |